Tuley’s Takes: NBA Playoffs First Round Best Bets:
The NBA playoffs are underway, and we have a bit more interest here in Tuley’s Takes than in other years. That’s because pro basketball usually plays to form, with the top teams advancing most of the time, as the cream usually rises to the top in a seven-game series. I normally try to bet my “dog or pass” plays in individual games as opposed to taking the series price, but this year it looks like we could have more series upsets (though I will still be betting my dogs on a game-by-game basis).
I passed on the play-in tournament mostly because I’m not a fan of the format. It reminds me too much of the First Four games in the NCAA Tournament, as those are also play-in games. I’m sure some can find value in these also-rans trying to get in the main field, but I invoked the “pass” part of “dog or pass” (though kind of kicking myself as underdogs went 3-1 ATS in the games on Tuesday and Wednesday, but we move on).
Let’s start with my two Best Bets that I provided to the VSiN Betting Guide at VSiN.com (which are the first two first-round series to tip off Saturday) and then hit the other first-round series. For the record, I plan to pass on the Timberwolves-Lakers and Warriors-Rockets series as well as Friday’s No. 8 seed Heat-Hawks winner in their series against No. 1 seed Cleveland, though I will probably be on the Mavericks-Grizzlies winner in Sunday’s Game One against the Western Conference No. 1 seed Oklahoma City.
Milwaukee Bucks (+135) over Indiana Pacers in first round
The Pacers are the better team at this point, especially with Milwaukee’s Damian Lillard ruled out for Game One, as he’s still recovering from deep vein thrombosis in his right calf. However, NBA playoff basketball usually comes down to the superstars with playoff experience, and the Bucks still have Giannis Antetokounmpo, who has carried this team for a long time. The Greek Freak averaged 30 points and 12 rebounds in the four games against the Pacers this season, and the cupboard isn’t totally bare. The Bucks can still get a split in Indy and be poised to close out the series early before having to deal with a Game Seven on the road, so I’m still shopping around for odds on the Bucks in six. As for the individual games, I took the Bucks +6 in Game One in Saturday’s first game (still available as of late Friday afternoon at Circa Sports and Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas).
Denver Nuggets (+100) over Los Angeles Clippers in first round
This is the most intriguing first-round matchup, and as a No. 4 vs. No. 5 matchup is understandably priced right around pick ’em, but I have to go with the even-money underdog Nuggets, the 2023 champs with home-court advantage. Denver also has the best player in all-world Nikola Jokic. We’re counting on Jamal Murray being back to 100% coming off his six-game absence with a hamstring injury. I’m encouraged by his 15 points last Friday and playing Sunday before taking a seat. He should be good to go.
Obviously, the Clippers are more dangerous than your regular No. 5 seed and we could be in trouble if they get a split in the first two games in Denver, but we’re also counting on the Nuggets’ home-court advantage (which usually only really matters if a series goes the full seven games) to come into play and help them control the series throughout. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see the home teams win all seven games, though the Nuggets (24-17 on the road) are also capable of stealing one in L.A. As for individual games, I’ll pass on the Nuggets as 2.5-point home chalk in Saturday’s Game One, but will surely be on them as road dogs in Games Three, Four and Six (if necessary).
Detroit Pistons (individual games) vs. New York Knicks
New York, the No, 3 seed in the Eastern Conference, opened around -425 in this series, and it’s been bet down with a lot of people seeing the Pistons (who went 3-1 in the regular-season meetings) as live dogs. Cade Cunningham and Co. will challenge the Knicks here, but I’m not as confident in Detroit winning the series, so I’ll just play the Pistons in individual games. That starts with a generous +7, especially considering Detroit won the two games in New York. I’ll probably take them again in Game Two as long as the line doesn’t dip too much, regardless of the Game One result. I’m less likely to take the Pistons at home at a much shorter number.
Orlando Magic (individual games) vs. Boston Celtics
Again, I’m not willing to bet the underdog Magic to pull the major upset in this series, but we’re still taking them plus the points, especially at double digits on the road in Boston, starting with +14 in Sunday afternoon’s Game One. The Celtics are on a mission to repeat as NBA champs and clearly the better offensive team (36.8% from 3-point range) and put up the most per game in the Association. However, the Magic have shown they can play with them as the Celtics swept them in the playoffs last year, but three of the four games were in single digits, and then Orlando won two of three meetings this regular season. Boston should coast to the next round, but that doesn’t mean they’ll cover these big spreads.
