Thursday Best Bets
Welcome to our “Tuley’s Takes” Best Bets column for Thursday.
For those who missed yesterday, we’ve started splitting our daily column (that has been running for the past 19 months since September 2021) into two separate pieces: there’s a FREE article where I put on my old-time reporters’ hat with my “press” card as we recap the betting action from the night before and update league-wide ATS stats in the various sports, and then this one where I put on my handicappers’ hat (just one of my many VSiN or other baseball caps) and look for the best betting opportunities on today’s wagering menu.
Links to both articles can be found on the VSiN.com website, though I advise my regular readers to also bookmark my dedicated VSiN page at https://vsin.com/news/dave-tuley-columns/.
So, without further ado, let’s go over how our picks fared on Wednesday and then look for plays on Thursday’s schedule.
Tuley’s Wednesday Best Bet Results
We hit our top play of the day on the Rangers First 5 Innings -105 at the Royals as the Rangers jumped out to a 3-0 lead after 2 innings on the way to easily cashing our ticket with a 5-1 lead after 5 innings and going on to win in a 12-3 rout to justify our comment that the wrong team was favored.
Unfortunately, the right teams were favored against our two Minnesota underdogs as the Timberwolves failed to cover +4.5 in the first half as they trailed the Nuggets 64-49 (we were glad we passed on the game spread as T-Wolves +8 was in position to cover but ended up losing 122-113) and the Wild +130 was never close as they lost 7-3 at the Stars.
Thursday NBA Best Bet
Clippers +2.5 vs. Suns: All three home teams on Thursday are in the “zig-zag” (aka loser of the last) role, but while the Nets and Warriors are down 2-0, I like the Clippers-Suns better as a zig-zag series as we’re already seen the Clippers steal Game 1 in Phoenix with the Suns bouncing back in Game 1. Now, the Clippers return home with Kawhi Leonard and Russell Westbrook to try to take back control of the series (and the +2.5 is just a little added insurance, though the SU winner is 16-0 ATS so far in this year’s playoffs and we’re not counting on the points to come into play for our wager).
Thursday MLB Best Bet
Dodgers First 5 Innings +100 at Cubs: The Cubbies are off to an unexpected 11-6 start (especially for someone who grew up as a die-hard fan in the Chicago suburbs) while the Dodgers are off to a disappointing 9-10 start, but I still don’t think they should be favored with Jameson Taillon vs. Michael Grove. Granted, the Cubs did win 2-of-3 in L.A. last weekend, and even though the Cubs did lead 1-0 after 5 innings in this pitching matchup on Saturday, this is the game the Dodgers came back to win in the bottom of the ninth. I’m expecting the Dodgers’ bats to get to Taillon earlier in this rematch.
Thursday NHL Best Bet
Lightning-Maple Leafs 1P Over -130 / Kraken-Avalanche 1P Over -135 (parlay pays +208): We cashed with this exact play on Tuesday at +208 and am pleasantly surprised to see the books not take away any value for a repeat tonight. As we mentioned on “The Greg Peterson Experience” on Sunday night and earlier in the week in these columns, we have fewer 1P Over teams alive now in the playoffs and need to take advantage of the rare times we’ll have these opportunities.
XFL Week 10 Best Bets
Orlando Guardians +9 at St. Louis Battlehawks and Vegas Vipers +8.5 at Seattle Sea Dragons: We gave these plays on “The Greg Peterson Experience” as both are fades of the Battlehawks, who need to win to clinch an XFL playoff spot, and the Sea Dragons, who need to win in case the Battlehawks fall. In both cases, I feel the lines are inflated too high due to those teams being in “must-win” situations, plus the Guardians and Vipers are much improved from earlier in the season and look like they enjoy playing spoiler down the stretch (Orlando had covered 3 straight before pushing as 2-point dogs in 25-23 loss at San Antonio on Saturday and the Vipers are also playing better since switching to Jalan McClendon at QB and took Houston to the final gun on Saturday). Note: I haven’t added these to the VSiN PRO Best Bets page yet as we’ve been waiting to see how high these lines go.
