The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Saturday, April 6, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA LAKERS, BROOKLYN

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a complete opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE): LA LAKERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA LAKERS, PHILADELPHIA, ATLANTA

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an R.O.I. of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a real significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MEMPHIS ML, ATLANTA ML

This last system involves totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in DET-BKN, PLAY OVER in PHI-MEM

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive NBA betting trend patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 126-88 SU BUT 93-119-1 ATS (43.9%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
4/6: FADE BROOKLYN vs. Detroit
System Match: FADE BROOKLYN (-9 vs DET)

4/6: FADE LA LAKERS vs. Cleveland
System Match: FADE LA LAKERS (-4.5 vs CLE)

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 54-39 SU but 39-54 ATS (41.9%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game over the last three seasons.
4/6: Fade BROOKLYN vs. Detroit
System Match: FADE BROOKLYN (-9 vs DET)

* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest are 71-42 SU but 49-63-1 ATS (43.8%) hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
4/6: Fade LA LAKERS vs. Cleveland
System Match: FADE LA LAKERS (-4.5 vs CLE)

* Home teams playing an 2 Days Rest were 31-22 SU but 25-27-1 ATS (48.1%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
4/6: Fade BROOKLYN vs. Detroit
System Match: FADE BROOKLYN (-9 vs DET)

* Host teams playing on a H2H b2b were 57-51 SU and 58-48-2 ATS (54.7%) hosting teams playing a One Day Rest game over the last two seasons.
4/6: MEMPHIS vs. Philadelphia
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS (+12.5 vs PHI)

* Over the total was 27-22 (55.1%) last season when the home team was on 2 Days Rest and the road team was playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game.
4/6: OVER the total in BROOKLYN-DETROIT
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 215)

Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season

There is still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. With over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what has been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these NBA betting trends will apply the rest of the way.

ATLANTA is 22-24 SU and 16-30 ATS (34.8%) when playing on a full day’s rest this season
4/6 at Denver
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (+12 at DEN)

The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* ATLANTA is 21-38 SU and 18-40 ATS in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario over the last two seasons
4/6: Fade ATLANTA at Denver
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (+12 at DEN)

* ATLANTA was 34-15 Over the total in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario in last two seasons
4/6: Over the total in DENVER-ATLANTA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total in ATL-DEN (o/u at 221)

* MEMPHIS is 27-14 SU and 24-16 ATS at HOME in the 4th in 6 Days scenario over the last two seasons
4/6: MEMPHIS vs. Philadelphia
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS (+12.5 vs PHI)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 163-31 SU but just 83-108-3 ATS (43.5%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-12.5 at MEM), FADE DENVER (-12 vs ATL)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 80-66 (54.8%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 153-126 (54.8%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 204-144 (58.6%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in PHI-MEM (o/u at 211), PLAY OVER in ATL-DEN (o/u at 221)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

NO QUALIFYING EXTREME STATS SYSTEMS TODAY

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND +4.5 (+2.0), 2. ATLANTA +12 (+0.8)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN -9 (+2.1), 2. PHILADELPHIA -12.5 (+0.3)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND +4.5 (+5.0), 2. ATLANTA +12 (+1.6)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN -9 (+1.2)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATL-DEN OVER 221 (+0.6)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). CLE-LAL UNDER 229.5 (-2.0) and PHI-MEM UNDER 211 (-2.0), 3. DET-BKN UNDER 215 (-0.3)

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND +4.5 (+1.1)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN -9 (+1.3), 2. DENVER -12 (+0.9), 3. PHILADELPHIA -12.5 (+0.3)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DET-BKN OVER 215 (+0.6)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHI-MEM UNDER 211 (-1.9), 2. ATL-DEN UNDER 221 (-1.3), 3. CLE-LAL UNDER 229.5 (-0.8)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(559) ATLANTA at (560) DENVER
* DENVER is on a 3-0 ATS streak hosting Atlanta
System Match: PLAY DENVER ATS

(553) CLEVELAND at (554) LA LAKERS
* The L3 games of the CLE-LAL h2h series in LA went UNDER the total
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(555) DETROIT at (556) BROOKLYN
* The L8 games of the DET-BRK h2h series went OVER the total
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(557) PHILADELPHIA at (558) MEMPHIS
* MEMPHIS has won L4 ATS hosting Philadelphia
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS ATS

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