The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Wednesday, April 10, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

Top NBA Resources:

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:15 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): DENVER

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DALLAS, SAN ANTONIO, ORLANDO, PHOENIX

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing a number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DALLAS, SAN ANTONIO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MEMPHIS, DALLAS

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on handle for +24.21 units, an R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.s are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA ML, BROOKLYN ML, DENVER ML, PHOENIX ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an R.O.I. of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a real significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE): SAN ANTONIO ML

These last two systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): ORL-MIL, PHX-LAC

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in MEM-CLE, PLAY OVER in DAL-MIA, PLAY UNDER in ORL-MIL, PLAY OVER in MIN-DEN

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive NBA betting trend patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 66-29 SU and 57-35-3 ATS (62%) hosting teams playing a A2A b2b game last season.
4/10: MILWAUKEE vs. Orlando
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (+1 vs ORL)

* Road teams playing an A2A b2b game are 25-35 SU but 34-25-1 ATS (57.6%) facing hosts playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game over the last three seasons.
4/10: ORLANDO at Milwaukee
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (-1 at MIL)

* Home teams playing a 4th in 6 Days game were 50-27 SU and 41-35-1 ATS (53.9%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
4/10: MIAMI vs. Dallas
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (+3 vs DAL)

4/10: MILWAUKEE vs. Orlando
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (+1 vs ORL)

4/10: OKLAHOMA CITY vs. San Antonio
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (-16 vs SAS)

* Home teams playing an A2H b2b game were 32-27 SU and 31-28 ATS (52.5%) hosting teams playing in a 4th in 6 Days game over last two seasons.
4/10: DENVER vs. Minnesota
System Match: PLAY DENVER (-6 vs MIN)

4/10: LA CLIPPERS vs. Phoenix
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS (+5 vs PHX)

4/10: MIAMI vs. Dallas
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (+3 vs DAL)

* Host teams playing a 4th Straight Home were 32-15 SU and 32-15 ATS (68.1%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
4/10: MILWAUKEE vs. Orlando
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (+1 vs ORL)

* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest are 29-9 SU and 24-13-1 ATS (64.9%) hosting teams playing in an H2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
4/10: BROOKLYN vs. Toronto
System Match: PLAY BROOKLYN (-10 vs TOR)

4/10: CLEVELAND vs. Memphis
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-18.5 vs MEM)

* Teams playing a 4th Straight Home game are 23-7 SU and 17-13 ATS (56.7%) hosting teams playing in an H2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
4/10: BROOKLYN vs. Toronto
System Match: PLAY BROOKLYN (-10 vs TOR)

* Over the total was 77-57 (57.5%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on a A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
4/10: Over the total in MIAMI-DALLAS
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 214)

4/10: Over the total in MILWAUKEE-ORLANDO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 215.5)

4/10: Over the total in OKLAHOMA CITY-SAN ANTONIO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 226.5)

* Over the total was 68-55 (55.3%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on a A2A b2b and the host was playing a 3rd in 4 Days game.
4/10: Over the total in MIAMI-DALLAS
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 214)

4/10: Over the total in MILWAUKEE-ORLANDO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 215.5)

4/10: Over the total in OKLAHOMA CITY-SAN ANTONIO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 226.5)

* Over the total was 33-20 (62.3%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing a A2A b2b game.
4/10: Over the total in MILWAUKEE-ORLANDO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 215.5)

4/10: Over the total in OKLAHOMA CITY-SAN ANTONIO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 226.5)

* Over the total was 25-17 (59.5%) last season when the home team was on a A2H b2b and the road team was playing a 3rd in 4 Days game.
4/10: Over the total in DENVER-MINNESOTA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 213)

4/10: Over the total in LA CLIPPERS-PHOENIX
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 226)

4/10: Over the total in MIAMI-DALLAS
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 214)

* Under the total is 16-12 (57.1%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
4/10: Under the total in ATLANTA-CHARLOTTE
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 222)

The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* ATLANTA was 35-15 Over the total in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario in the last two seasons
4/10: Over the total in CHARLOTTE-ATLANTA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 222)

* BROOKLYN is 26-15 Under the total in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last two seasons
4/10: UNDER the total in TORONTO-BROOKLYN
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 222.5)

* MINNESOTA is 19-7 Over the total on the road in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario over the last two seasons
4/10: Over the total in DENVER-MINNESOTA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 213)

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 39-19 Over the total at Home in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario over the last three seasons
4/10: OVER the total in SAN ANTONIO-OKLAHOMA CITY
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 226.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 121-35 SU and 100-56 ATS (64.1%) run.
System Matches: PLAY DENVER (-6 vs MIN)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 169-31 SU but just 88-109-3 ATS (44.7%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE CLEVELAND (-18.5 vs MEM)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 81-66 (55.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 157-128 (54.8%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 208-145 (58.9%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in MEM-CLE (o/u at 213.5), PLAY UNDER in CHA-ATL (o/u at 222), PLAY UNDER in TOR-BKN (o/u at 222.5), PLAY OVER in SAS-OKC (o/u at 226.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

Fade teams off of overtime games
Teams that played in an overtime game the prior day are on a 47-79 SU and 50-72-4 ATS (41%) slide, including 21-41-2 ATS in the last 64 games and 17-29 ATS when a pick ’em or favorite.
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+3 vs. DAL), FADE ATLANTA (-11.5 vs. CHA)

Back-to-back scoring outburst could be the beginning of a trend
NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 62-48 SU and 61-47-2 ATS (56.5%) in the follow-up contest since 2018, including 24-17 ATS as underdogs.
System Match: PLAY DALLAS (-3 at MIA)

Favorites flush low-scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 129-44 SU and 108-63-2 ATS (63.2%) in their last 173 tries.
System Match: PLAY BROOKLYN (-10 vs TOR)

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 244-191 SU but 187-237-11 ATS (44.1%) over the last 5-1/2 seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 33-60 ATS.
System Match: FADE LA CLIPPERS (+5 vs PHX)

Divisional upsets can create urgency
NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 87-50 SU and 81-54-2 ATS (60%) in that follow-up try over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: PLAY PHOENIX (-5 at LAC)

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams that coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 152-131 SU and 159-116-8 ATS (57.8%) run.
System Match: PLAY DENVER (-6 vs. MIN), PLAY MILWAUKEE (+1 vs. ORL)

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 110-80 SU and 109-78-3 ATS (58.3%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO (+16 at OKC), PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (-16 vs. SAS), PLAY LA CLIPPERS (+5 vs. PHX)

Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 144-54 SU and 112-84-2 ATS (57.1%) over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (-16 vs SAS)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MILWAUKEE +1 (+3.3), 2. LA CLIPPERS +5 (+2.8), 3. CHARLOTTE +11.5 (+2.7)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND -18.5 (+2.6), 2. BROOKLYN -10 (+1.4), 3. DENVER -6 (+0.1)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHARLOTTE +11.5 (+5.5), 2. LA CLIPPERS +5 (+2.7), 3. MEMPHIS +18.5 (+1.2)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -16 (+0.7), 2(tie). BROOKLYN -10 (+0.4) and DENVER -6 (+0.4)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TOR-BKN OVER 222.5 (+1.5), 2. SAS-OKC OVER 226.5 (+0.1)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEM-CLE UNDER 213.5 (-3.4), 2(tie). MIN-DEN UNDER 213 (-2.4) and PHX-LAC UNDER 226 (-2.4)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MILWAUKEE +1 (+5.2), 2. LA CLIPPERS +5 (+3.7), 3. CHARLOTTE +11.5 (+0.7)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND -18.5 (+3.4), 2. OKLAHOMA CITY -16 (+0.8), 3. DENVER -6 (+0.4)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAS-OKC OVER 226.5 (+7.1), 2. DAL-MIA OVER 214 (+5.3), 3. TOR-BKN OVER 222.5 (+1.5)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHX-LAC UNDER 226 (-6.2), 2. MEM-CLE UNDER 213.5 (-3.4), 3. ORL-MIL UNDER 215.5 (-2.4)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(531) CHARLOTTE at (532) ATLANTA
* Home teams have swept the last four ATS in the CHA-ATL series
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA ATS

(535) DALLAS at (536) MIAMI
* MIAMI is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight hosting Dallas
System Match: PLAY MIAMI ATS

(529) MEMPHIS at (530) CLEVELAND
* Underdogs are 6-3 ATS in the last nine of the MEM-CLE series
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS ATS

(541) MINNESOTA at (542) DENVER
* MINNESOTA has won the last five ATS versus Denver
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS

(539) ORLANDO at (540) MILWAUKEE
* Road teams are 8-4 ATS in the last 12 of the ORL-MIL series
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS

(543) PHOENIX at (544) LA CLIPPERS
* Seven of the last nine games in the PHO-LAC series went Over the total
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(537) SAN ANTONIO at (538) OKLAHOMA CITY
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six hosting San Antonio
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS

(533) TORONTO at (534) BROOKLYN
* Favotires are on a seven game ATS winning streak in the TOR-BRK series
System Match: PLAY BROOKLYN ATS

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