The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, May 19, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top trends and systems for Game Sevens, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

 

(541) INDIANA at (542) NEW YORK
* Favorites have covered 15 of the last 18 ATS in the head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK ATS

Top NBA Resources:

–  Winning Game Six has provided a good boost for Game Seven, as these teams riding the positive momentum have gone 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS (80%) in their last 10 chances.
System Matches: PLAY INDIANA (+3.5 at NYK), PLAY MINNESOTA (+5 at DEN)

Favorites flush low-scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 133-46 SU and 110-67-2 ATS (62.1%) in their last 179 tries.
System Match: PLAY DENVER (-5 vs MIN)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wager. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY): MINNESOTA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors enjoyed a strong postseason run this past year in the NBA, going 51-35 ATS on all games, good for 59.3%. You will see in a little while that it wasn’t all success, however, as their money line plays tanked. System #4 will become far more important in April.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, MINNESOTA

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a complete opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE): NEW YORK

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on handle for +24.21 units, an ROI of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% ROI Both of these ROIs are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY): MINNESOTA ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle moneyline wagerers had a brutal playoff run last year, going 48-39 for -34.6 units and an ROI of -38.4%. This system will be significant starting in April.
System Matches (FADE): NEW YORK ML, MINNESOTA ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and a ROI of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a real significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE): MINNESOTA ML

This last system involves totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in BOTH GAMES

As I reasoned in the first-round article from a few weeks back, being able to predict an upset in a series will give you a leg up on a game-by-game wagering basis. Accurately projecting which underdogs will push a series deep, or alternatively, which favorites will end a series quickly, can boost your wagering profit in this round and all others. Take a look at some of these series trends based on won-lost records at various time lengths of the regular season.

•  There have been 14 second round series over the last 10 playoff seasons to last five games or less, only two in upset fashion. In all but one of those 20 series, the winning team won at least 50 games in the regular season.

• There have been 19 second-round series over the last 10 playoff seasons that involved teams squaring off whose regular season win totals were within 5 of one another. Those series have been almost toss-ups, with the higher-seeded team winning 10 times (64 individual wins) and the lower-seed winning 8 times (53 individual wins).

• In the 21 other series where the regular season won-lost total is +6 or higher for the better seed, that team is 16-5 in series wins and 73-43 in individual wins. The most recent of those five series losses occurred in 2022, when Dallas edged Phoenix 4-3.

• Excluding the results of the 2020 season which had a shortened regular season and postseason played entirely in Orlando, 53 regular season wins is a good benchmark for projecting success in the second round. Teams that won 52 games or fewer, when taking on teams that won 53 games or more, are just 2-16 in series and 33-67 in individual games since 2014. Again, Phoenix in 2022 was the last team to lose in this situation.

• There is an advantage to playing shorter series in the first round. Teams that played two or more fewer games in the first round boast a second-round series record of 8-5 since 2014, with an individual game mark of 38-26.

• It hasn’t been a real detriment to see a first-round series be pushed to seven games for teams in the second round. These teams are 8-8 in series and 47-46 in individual games since 2014. Heading into this season, only two first-round series over the previous three playoff seasons went the distance.

• Don’t overestimate situations when the worse-seeded team had a better second-half regular season record since they have only won once in their last eight series, going 16-31 in individual games.

• Similarly, worse-seeded teams that had better ATS records in the regular season haven’t fared that well either. They are just 3-13 in series record and 31-56 in individual games.

Scoring Trends

– It was in the 2016-17 season in which scoring really started to balloon in the NBA. Since then, it’s been proven to be that 112 points are the benchmark for second-round success – Teams that score 112 points or more in a second-round playoff game have gone 117-27 SU and 111-32-1 ATS (77.6%).

– Lack of success accompanies failing to reach the 103-point mark – Second-round playoff teams scoring 102 points or less own a record of just 22-115 SU & 29-107-1 ATS (21.3%) over the last seven seasons.

Last Game Trends
– Teams coming off a loss in a second round series game and playing at home have bounced back well, 23-11 ATS (67.6%) since 2021.
System Matches: PLAY NEW YORK (-3.5 vs IND), PLAY DENVER (-5 vs MIN)

– Blowout losses have been demoralizing for teams lately in the second round, as those losing by 15 points or more in one game follow that up with just an 15-14 SU and 14-15 ATS (48.3%) record over the last three postseasons.
System Match: FADE DENVER (-5 vs MIN)

– Poor 3-point shooting teams don’t necessarily bounce back from those off nights, going 21-26-1 ATS (44.7%) after games in which they shot 25% or less.
System Match: FADE DENVER (-5 vs MIN)

Trends by Game Number
– Favorites have been far from automatic lately in Game Sevens, going just 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS (40%) in their last 10 tries. Boston did beat Philadelphia handily last year, however.
System Matches: FADE NEW YORK (-3.5 vs IND), FADE DENVER (-5 vs MIN)

– Winning Game Six has provided a good boost for Game Seven, as these teams riding the positive momentum have gone 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS (80%) in their last 10 chances.
System Matches: PLAY INDIANA (+3.5 at NYK), PLAY MINNESOTA (+5 at DEN)

– Not surprisingly, Unders are the wager of choice in Game Sevens lately, 8-4 in the last 12 (66.7%).
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in BOTH GAMES

Trends by Seed Number
-#2 seeds have not closed out opponents well in the second round, going just 6-12 SU and 4-14 ATS (22.2%) when given that chance since 2018.
System Matches: FADE NEW YORK (-3.5 vs IND), FADE DENVER (-5 vs MIN)

– #3 seeds have meant Unders in second round games of late, 34-19-1 (64.2%) in the last 54.
System Match: PLAY UNDER in MIN-DEN (o/u at 198)

– Teams seeded at #3 in the NBA playoffs have been awful on the road in the second round of late, winning just 12 of their last 38 games while going 13-25 ATS (34.2%).
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (+5 at DEN)

– #3 seeds are on a phenomenal second-round run of 10-4 SU and 11-3 ATS (78.6%) when trying to stave off elimination in a series.
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (+5 at DEN)

– Upset winners of the first round don’t win much in the second round, with teams seeded #5 or worse going 21-35 SU and 27-29 ATS (48.2%) in their second-round games over the last nine seasons when not matched up against another upset winner.
System Match: FADE INDIANA (+3.5 at NYK)

– Winning doesn’t provide a whole lot of momentum for the second-round teams “not supposed to be there,” as they are just 11-22 SU and 12-21 ATS (36.4%) when coming off a same series victory since 2013.
System Match: FADE INDIANA (+3.5 at NYK)

Trend by teams closing out series or facing elimination
– Strangely, in closeout games, teams looking to finish a series have been more successful against the spread on the road (9-9 ATS in the last 18) as compared to at home (7-13 ATS in the last 20).

Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season

New York has gone 12-7 Under the total (63.2%) at home this season when returning from a road trip in their prior game.
5/19 vs Indiana
System Match: PLAY UNDER in IND-NYK (o/u at 208.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five different NBA betting trend systems for teams based upon some various team strength indicator or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 126-40 SU and 105-61 ATS (63.3%) run.
System Matches: PLAY DENVER (-5 vs MIN)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

Favorites flush low-scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 133-46 SU and 110-67-2 ATS (62.1%) in their last 179 tries.
System Match: PLAY DENVER (-5 vs MIN)

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 115-86 SU and 113-85-3 ATS (57.1%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (+5 at DEN)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANA +3.5 (+1.4), 2. MINNESOTA +5 (+1.2)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA +5 (+2.0), 2. INDIANA +3.5 (+0.9)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. IND-NYK OVER 208.5 (+4.2), 2. MIN-DEN OVER 198 (+0.9)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANA +3.5 (+1.3), 2. MINNESOTA +5 (+0.9)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. IND-NYK OVER 208.5 (+4.9), 2. MIN-DEN OVER 198 (+3.5)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

Sunday, May 19, 2024
(541) INDIANA at (542) NEW YORK
* Favorites have covered 15 of the last 18 ATS in the head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK ATS

(539) MINNESOTA at (540) DENVER
* MINNESOTA has won four of the last six ATS in the head-to-head series at Denver
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS