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    Apr 12, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid (21) drives against Orlando Magic forward Jonathan Isaac (1) during the third quarter at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
    NBA

    NBA Top Plays Based on Betting Splits, Power Ratings and Trends (April 16)

    Steve Makinen and the VSiN Analytics team share today's most important NBA betting trends for Tuesday, April 16.

    Steve Makinen
    By Steve Makinen

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    The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN.com and qualified for the NBA games of the Play-In First Round. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

    Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

    One of the most popular features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built using DraftKings Sportsbook data detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

     

    Top NBA Resources:

    In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this super majority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
    System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, CHICAGO

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wager. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
    System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA LAKERS, GOLDEN STATE

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors enjoyed a strong postseason run this past year in the NBA, going 51-35 ATS on all games, good for 59.3%. You will see in a little while that it wasn’t all successes however, as their money line plays tanked. System #4 will become far more important in April.
    System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA LAKERS, GOLDEN STATE, PHILADELPHIA, CHICAGO

    At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

    The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
    System Matches (FADE ALL): LA LAKERS, GOLDEN STATE, PHILADELPHIA

    The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on handle for +24.21 units, an R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.s are notable improvements over all other matchups.
    System Matches (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE ML

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle moneyline wagerers had a brutal playoff run last year, going 48-39 for -34.6 units and an R.O.I. of -38.4%. This system will be significant starting in April.
    System Matches (FADE ALL): LA LAKERS ML, GOLDEN STATE ML, PHILADELPHIA ML, CHICAGO ML

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an R.O.I. of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a real significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
    System Matches (FADE): LA LAKERS ML

    These last two systems involve totals.

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with UNDER the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
    System Matches (PLAY UNDER): LAL-NOP

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
    System Matches (PLAY OVER): MIA-PHI

    Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

    The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

    We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

    * Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 129-89 SU but 95-121-1 ATS (44%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
    4/17 Atlanta at Chicago
    System Match: FADE CHICAGO (-3 vs ATL)

    * Teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 60-40 SU and 61-37-2 ATS (62.2%) versus teams playing a 2 Days Rest game over the last three seasons.
    4/17 Miami at Philadelphia
    System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-4.5 vs MIA)

    * Home teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 20-7 SU and 19-7-1 ATS (73.1%) hosting teams playing a 2 Days Rest game over the last three seasons.
    4/17 Miami at Philadelphia
    System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-4.5 vs MIA)

    * Under the total was 64-36 (64%) over the last three seasons when one team was on 2 Days Rest and the opponent was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.
    4/17 Miami at Philadelphia
    System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 207)

    Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season

    There is still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. With over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what have been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these NBA betting trends will apply the rest of the way.

    The LA LAKERS have gone 27-13 Over the total (67.5%) on the road so far this season.
    4/16 at New Orleans
    System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u 224.5)

    The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

    * ATLANTA is 6-12 SU and 5-13 ATS on the ROAD in the 2 Days Rest scenario over the last two seasons
    4/17 at Chicago
    System Match: FADE ATLANTA (+3 at CHI)

    * GOLDEN STATE is 24-51 SU and 24-51 ATS on the ROAD in the One Day Rest scenario over the last two seasons
    4/16 at Sacramento
    System Match: FADE GOLDEN STATE (-2.5 at SAC)

    NBA Team Strength Systems

    The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

    NO QUALIFYING TEAM STRENGTH SYSTEMS

    NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

    These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

    Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
    NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 246-192 SU but 188-238-12 ATS (44.1%) over the last 5-1/2 seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 33-61 ATS.
    System Match: FADE SACRAMENTO (+2.5 vs GSW)

    Unusual defensive performances
    NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 112-82 SU and 111-80-3 ATS (58.1%) since 2021.
    System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO (+2.5 vs GSW)

    NBA Streak Systems

    The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

    NBA Streak Betting System #5:
    There has been a 3.6% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (161-179 ATS, 47.4%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (223-214 ATS, 51%) over the last three seasons.
    System Matches: CONSIDER FADING ATLANTA (+3 at CHI)

    NBA Streak Betting System #6:
    Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 62-73 SU and 74-59-3 ATS (55.6%) surge.
    System Matches: PLAY ATLANTA (+3 at CHI)

    NBA Streak Betting System #8:
    Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 190-235 ATS (44.7%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 26-109 SU and 58-74-3 ATS (43.9%).
    System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-4.5 vs MIA)

    NBA Streak Betting System #9:
    Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 41-59 ATS (41%) in the next game, including 18-32 ATS (36%) on the road over the last three seasons.
    System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-4.5 vs MIA)

    Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

    The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

    Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. SACRAMENTO +2.5 (+4.0), 2. ATLANTA +3 (+0.1)

    Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS -1.5 (+3.3), 2. PHILADELPHIA -4.5 (+1.0)

    Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. SACRAMENTO +2.5 (+1.6), 2. ATLANTA +3 (+0.9)

    Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS -1.5 (+3.0), 2. PHILADELPHIA -4.5 (+0.6)

    Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. ATL-CHI OVER 220.5 (+5.7), 2. MIA-PHI OVER 207 (+1.6), 3. LAL-NOP OVER 224.5 (+1.0)

    Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. GSW-SAC UNDER 223.5 (-3.7)

    Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. SACRAMENTO +2.5 (+3.8), 2. ATLANTA +3 (+2.6)

    Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS -1.5 (+3.3), 2. PHILADELPHIA -4.5 (+1.7)

    Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. ATL-CHI OVER 220.5 (+5.3), 2. LAL-NOP OVER 224.5 (+4.7), 3. MIA-PHI OVER 207 (+0.6)

    Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. GSW-SAC UNDER 223.5 (-4.6)

    Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:

    Tuesday, April 16, 2024

    (541) LA LAKERS at (542) NEW ORLEANS
    * LA LAKERS are on a 5-1 ATS run in the series
    System Match: PLAY LA LAKERS ATS

    (543) GOLDEN STATE at (544) SACRAMENTO
    * Underdogs have won the last six ATS in the series
    System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO ATS

    Wednesday, April 17, 2024

    (549) ATLANTA at (550) CHICAGO
    * Underdogs have won six of the last seven ATS in the series
    System Match: PLAY ATLANTA ATS

    (551) MIAMI at (552) PHILADELPHIA
    * Road teams are 6-2 ATS in the last eight of the series
    System Match: PLAY MIAMI ATS

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    Steve Makinen
    Steve Makinen
    As one of the original founders of StatFox, Steve Makinen has been in the business of sports betting and data analysis for almost 25 years now. In his time in the industry, Steve has worked in a variety of capacities on both sides of the betting counter, from his early days of developing the StatFox business, to almost a decade of oddsmaking consulting for one of the world's leading sportsbooks, to his last seven years as Point Spread Weekly and Analytics Director with VSiN. Steve has always believed that number crunching and handicapping through foundational trends and systems is the secret to success and he shares this data with VSiN readers on a daily basis for all of the major sports.

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