The following NBA betting trends featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, March 10, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, SACRAMENTO, MIAMI, NEW YORK, OKLAHOMA CITY, CLEVELAND, LA LAKERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, NEW ORLEANS

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SACRAMENTO, NEW ORLEANS, CLEVELAND

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA CLIPPERS, NEW ORLEANS

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on handle for +24.21 units, an R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.s are notable improvements over all other matchups.?
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI ML, NEW YORK ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML

These last four systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIL-LAC, IND-ORL, WSH-MIA, NOP-ATL, PHI-NYK, MEM-OKC, BKN-CLE, MIN-LAL

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 56% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in a NBA game total, this majority group has been awful, 11-35 this season (23.9%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): HOU-SAC, WSH-MIA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in PHI-NYK, PLAY UNDER in MEM-OKC, PLAY UNDER in BKN-CLE

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Home teams playing a 4thin6Days game were 47-22 SU and 38-30-1 ATS (55.9%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
3/10: CLEVELAND vs. Brooklyn
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-7 vs BKN)

* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 30-27 SU and 33-24 ATS (57.9%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game last season.
3/10: LA CLIPPERS vs. Milwaukee
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS (+5.5 vs MIL)

* Host teams playing on a H2H b2b were 56-43 SU and 53-45-1 ATS (54.1%) hosting teams playing a One Day Rest game over the last two seasons.
3/10: LA CLIPPERS vs. Milwaukee
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS (+5.5 vs MIL)

* Over the total was 73-53 (57.9%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on an A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
3/10: Over the total in CLEVELAND-BROOKLYN
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 207.5)

* Over the total was 76-51 (59.8%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road gameE3/10: Over the total in LA CLIPPERS-MILWAUKEE
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 222.5)

* Under the total was 49-48-1 (50.5%) last season when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
3/10: Under the total in MILWAUKEE-LA CLIPPERS
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 222.5)

Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season

There is still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. With over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what have been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these angles will apply the rest of the way.

ATLANTA is 16-21 SU and 11-26 ATS (29.7%) when playing on a full day’s rest this season
3/10 vs. New Orleans
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (+6.5 vs NOP)

MILWAUKEE is 9-1 Under the total (90%) on the road versus Western Conference foes so far this season.
3/10 at LA Clippers
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 222.5)

MILWAUKEE has struggled in the ordinary One Day Rest scheduling scenario this season, going 22-17 SU but 14-25 ATS (35.9%). 3/10 at LA Clippers
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (-5.5 atORLANDO has thrived in the commonplace One Day Rest scheduling scenario this season, going 27-9 SU and 27-9 ATS (75%).
3/10 vs. Indiana
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (-2 vs IND)

WASHINGTON is 19-12 ATS (61.3%) as a road underdog this season but 9-20 ATS (31%) as a home underdog
3/10 at Miami
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (+11 at MIA)

The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* ATLANTA was 31-13 Over the total in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario last season
3/10: Over the total in NEW ORLEANS-ATLANTA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 220.5)

* MINNESOTA is 18-6 Over the total on the road in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario over the last two seasons
3/10: Over the total in LA LAKERS-MINNESOTA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 221.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based upon some various team strength indicator or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 77-61 (55.8%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 144-114 (55.8%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 180-134 (57.3%).
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in WSH-MIA (o/u at 228.5), PLAY OVER in MEM-OKC (o/u at 219.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

Back-to-back scoring outburst could be the beginning of a trend
NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 62-47 SU and 61-46-2 ATS (57%) in the follow-up contest since 2018, including 24-17 ATS as underdogs.
System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO (-6.5 vs HOU)

Favorites flush low-scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 123-44 SU and 102-63-2 ATS (61.8%) in their last 167 tries.
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (-2 vs IND)

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 223-124 SU but just 144-192-11 ATS (42.9%) in the next contest when favored again
System Match: FADE SACRAMENTO (-6.5 vs HOU)

Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 236-185 SU but 181-229-11 ATS (44.1%) over the last 5-1/2 seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 32-59 ATS.
System Match: FADE NEW YORK (-7 vs PHI)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 262-205 (56.1%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY UNDER in BKN-CLE (o/u at 207.5)

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams that coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 147-119 SU and 154-105-7 ATS (59.5%) run.
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK (-7 vs PHI)

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 108-77 SU and 107-75-3 ATS (58.5%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK (-7 vs PHI)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trends systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK SYSTEMS TODAY

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATLANTA +6.5 (+1.1), 2. INDIANA +2 (+0.9), 3. LA CLIPPERS +5.5 (+0.7)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -15 (+2.8), 2. LA LAKERS -1.5 (+1.7), 3. CLEVELAND -7 (+1.3)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON +6.5 (+3.2), 2. LA CLIPPERS +5.5 (+1.3), 3. MINNESOTA +1.5 (+0.2)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:””Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -15 (+3.4), 2. CLEVELAND -7 (+1.6), 3. NEW ORLEANS -6.5 (+1.2)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEM-OKC OVER 219.5 (+0.9), 2. HOU-SAC OVER 233.5 (+0.3), 3. NOP-ATL OVER 220.5 (+0.1)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIN-LAL UNDER 221.5 (-2.4), 2. WSH-MIA UNDER 228.5 (-1.8), 3. PHI-NYK UNDER 211.5 (-1.0)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATLANTA +6.5 (+2.8), 2. LA CLIPPERS +5.5 (+1.4), 3. INDIANA +2 (+1.0)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projection
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -15 (+2.6), 2. NEW YORK -7 (+1.8), 3. LA LAKERS -1.5 (+1.6)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOU-SAC OVER 233.5 (+3.7), 2. PHI-NYK OVER 211.5 (+3.0), 3. BKN-CLE OVER 207.5 (+1.3)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIN-LAL UNDER 221.5 (-2.1), 2. WSH-MIA UNDER 228.5 (-1.0), 3. MIL-LAC UNDER 222.5 (-0.8)

Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:

(529) BROOKLYN at (530) CLEVELAND
* CLEVELAND is 4-1 ATS in the last five hosting Brooklyn but lost the last time
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS

(519) HOUSTON at (520) SACRAMENTO
* Over the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the HOU-SAC series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(517) INDIANA at (518) ORLANDO
* Road teams are 17-6-1 ATS in the IND-ORL series since 2017
System Match: PLAY INDIANA ATS

(527) MEMPHIS at (528) OKLAHOMA CITY
* OKLAHOMA CITY is on a 4-0 ATS streak hosting Memphis
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS

(515) MILWAUKEE at (516) LA CLIPPERS
* Road teams are on a 4-0 ATS streak in the MIL-LAC series
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE ATS

(531) MINNESOTA at (532) LA LAKERS
* Road teams have won the last five ATS in the MIN-LAL series
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS

(523) NEW ORLEANS at (524) ATLANTA
* Under the total is 5-1 in the last six of the NOP-ATL series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(525) PHILADELPHIA at (526) NEW YORK
* Road teams are on an 8-4-1 ATS surge in the PHI-NYK rivalry
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS

(521) WASHINGTON at (522) MIAMI
* The last five games of the WAS-MIA series in Miami went Over the total
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

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