Today’s NBA Betting Trends
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Tuesday, March 26, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals.
Top NBA Resources:
- NBA Betting Primer (Free Download)
- NBA Public Betting Percentages & Betting Splits
- NBA Odds
- NBA Injury Report Today
- Parlay Calculator
- NBA Prop Bet Analyzer
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): MILWAUKEE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GOLDEN STATE, OKLAHOMA CITY, DALLAS
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GOLDEN STATE, LA LAKERS
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a money line wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an R.O.I. of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a real significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA LAKERS ML, DALLAS ML
These last two systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much”, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): GSW-MIA, LAL-MIL, OKC-NOP, DAL-SAC
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in GSW-MIA
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Home teams playing a 4th in 6 Days game were 49-25 SU and 40-33-1 ATS (54.8%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
3/26: SACRAMENTO vs. Dallas
System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO (-1 vs DAL)
* Over the total was 75-56 (57.3%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on a A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
3/26: Over the total in SACRAMENTO-DALLAS
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 233)
* Over the total was 66-54 (55%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on a A2A b2b and the host was playing a 3rd in 4 Days game.
3/26: Over the total in SACRAMENTO-DALLAS
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 233)
* Over the total was 32-19 (62.7%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing an A2A b2b game.
3/26: Over the total in SACRAMENTO-DALLAS
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 233)
Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season
There is still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. With over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what have been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these angles will apply the rest of the way.
The LA LAKERS have gone 21-11 Over the total (65.6%) on the road so far this season.
3/26 at Milwaukee
System Match: PLAY OVER the total in LAL-MIL (o/u at 231.5)
MILWAUKEE has struggled in the ordinary One Day Rest scheduling scenario this season, going 24-18 SU but 16-26 ATS (38.1%).
3/26 vs. LA Lakers
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (-9 vs LAL)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation NBA Betting Trends
The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* GOLDEN STATE is 22-51 SU and 22-51 ATS on the road in the One Day Rest scenario over the last two seasons
3/26: Fade GOLDEN STATE at Miami
System Match: FADE GOLDEN STATE (-2 at MIA)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five different NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NO QUALIFYING TEAM STRENGTH SYSTEMS TODAY
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.
Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 240-187 SU but 184-232-11 ATS (44.2%) over the last 5-1/2 seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 33-60 ATS.
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+2 vs GSW), FADE MILWAUKEE (-9 vs LAL)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 263-207 (56%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY UNDER in LAL-MIL (o/u at 231.5)
Unusual defensive performances
Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 142-54 SU and 110-84-2 ATS (56.7%) over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE (-2 at MIA)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS +1 (+2.6), 2(tie). LA LAKERS +9 (+1.8) and DALLAS +1 (+1.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI +2 (+1.5), 2. LA LAKERS +9 (+1.4), 3. DALLAS +1 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAL-MIL OVER 231.5 (+0.9), 2. DAL-SAC OVER 233 (+0.3), 3. GSW-MIA OVER 218 (+0.2)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: OKC-NOP UNDER 222.5 (-1.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA LAKERS +9 (+2.7), 2. MIAMI +2 (+1.5), 3. DALLAS +1 (+1.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAL-MIL OVER 231.5 (+4.4), 2. DAL-SAC OVER 233 (+2.8), 3. GSW-MIA OVER 218 (+0.8)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: OKC-NOP UNDER 222.5 (-3.4)
Top Daily Head-To-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(541) DALLAS at (542) SACRAMENTO
* Underdogs are 5-0-1 ATS in the last six and 9-2-2 ATS in the last 13 of the series
System Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS
(535) GOLDEN STATE at (536) MIAMI
* MIAMI is 6-2 ATS in the last eight home games vs Golden State
System Match: PLAY MIAMI ATS
(537) LA LAKERS at (538) MILWAUKEE
* Road teams are 6-1 ATS in the last seven of the series
System Match: PLAY LA LAKERS ATS
(539) OKLAHOMA CITY at (540) NEW ORLEANS
* Road teams have won seven straight ATS and 13-2 ATS in the last 15 of the series
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS
