Today’s NBA Betting Trends
The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Wednesday, March 27, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
Top NBA Resources:
- NBA Betting Primer (Free Download)
- NBA Public Betting Percentages & Betting Splits
- NBA Odds
- NBA Injury Report Today
- Parlay Calculator
- NBA Prop Bet Analyzer
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, ATLANTA, MINNESOTA, UTAH
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wager. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BROOKLYN, CLEVELAND, LA CLIPPERS, NEW YORK, HOUSTON, INDIANA
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a complete opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BROOKLYN, CLEVELAND, NEW YORK, MINNESOTA, LA LAKERS, INDIANA, UTAH
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, LA CLIPPERS, MINNESOTA
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on handle for +24.21 units, an R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.s are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK ML, INDIANA ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a money line wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an R.O.I. of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a real significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE ALL): GOLDEN STATE ML, HOUSTON ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until somethings changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND ML, ATLANTA ML, NEW YORK ML, MINNESOTA ML
These last three systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): GSW-ORL, BKN-WSH, LAC-PHI, NYK-TOR, DET-MIN
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 56% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in an NBA game total, this majority group has been awful, 11-35 this season (23.9%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): BKN-WSH, SAS-UTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in GSW-ORL, PLAY OVER in CLE-CHA, PLAY OVER in POR-ATL, PLAY OVER in LAC-PHI, PLAY OVER in NYK-TOR, PLAY UNDER in DET-MIN
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 60-41 SU and 65-33-1 ATS (66.3%) versus teams playing a 3rd Game in 4 Days over the last three seasons.
3/27: ORLANDO vs. Golden State
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (-4 vs GSW)
* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest were 35-15 SU and 33-15-2 ATS (68.8%) hosting teams playing a 4th in 6 Days game last season.
3/27: ORLANDO vs. Golden State
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (-4 vs GSW)
* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 38-15 SU and 34-16-3 ATS (68%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last two seasons.
3/27: ORLANDO vs. Golden State
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (-4 vs GSW)
* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 65-27 SU and 56-33-3 ATS (62.9%) hosting teams playing a A2A b2b game last season.
3/27: ORLANDO vs. Golden State
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (-4 vs GSW)
* Host teams playing a 4th Straight Home were 32-13 SU and 31-14 ATS (68.9%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
3/27: ORLANDO vs. Golden State
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (-4 vs GSW)
* Home teams playing on 3+ Day Rest were 10-2 SU and 11-0-1 ATS (100%) last season hosting teams playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game.
3/27: ORLANDO vs. Golden State
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (-4 vs GSW)
Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season
There is still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. With over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what have been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these NBA betting trends will apply the rest of the way.
ATLANTA is 19-23 SU and 14-28 ATS (33.3%) when playing on a full day’s rest this season.
3/27 vs. Portland
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (-10.5 vs POR)
INDIANA has been at its best against divisional opponents so far this season, going 11-4 SU and ATS (73.3%).
3/27 at Chicago
System Match: PLAY INDIANA (-2.5 at CHI)
The LA CLIPPERS boast a phenomenal 29-15 SU and 25-19 ATS (56.8%) record as a single-digit favorite this season.
3/27 at Philadelphia
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS (-5.5 at PHI)
The LA LAKERS have gone 22-11 Over the total (66.7%) on the road so far this season.
3/27 at Memphis
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 222)
NEW YORK has dominated its weakest competition this season, going 22-1 SU and 17-5-1 ATS (77.3%) versus teams with current Steve Makinen Power Ratings of less than 95.
3/27 at Toronto
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK (-13.5 at TOR)
PHOENIX is 8-4-1 Over the total (66.7%) when playing in the second of consecutive games against non-divisional conference opponents in the 2023-24 season.
3/27 at Denver
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 227)
SAN ANTONIO has gone 1-15 SU and 5-11 ATS (31.3%) this season against teams currently with mid-level Steve Makinen Power Ratings of 95-99.5.
3/27 at Utah
System Match: FADE SAN ANTONIO (+3.5 at UTA)
WASHINGTON is 21-13 ATS (61.8%) as a road underdog this season but 10-21 ATS (32.3%) as a home underdog.
3/27 vs Brooklyn
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (+3.5 vs BKN)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation NBA Betting Trends
The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* GOLDEN STATE is 25-14 Over the total in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario over the last two seasons
3/27: OVER the total in ORLANDO-GOLDEN STATE
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 217)
* MEMPHIS is 50-20 SU and 41-28 ATS at home in the One Day Rest scenario over the last two seasons
3/27: MEMPHIS vs. La Lakers
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS (+4 vs LAL)
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 37-19 Over the total at home in the 4th In 6 Days game scenario over the last three seasons
3/27: Over the total in HOUSTON-OKLAHOMA CITY
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 231)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on an 87-57 SU and 85-56-3 ATS (60.3%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY BROOKLYN (-3.5 at WSH)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 151-30 SU but just 75-103-3 ATS (42.1%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA (-11 vs POR), FADE MINNESOTA (-15 vs DET)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 80-62 (56.3%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 146-120 (54.9%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 196-142 (58%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in CLE-CHA (o/u at 206), PLAY OVER in POR-ATL (o/u at 217), PLAY UNDER in NYK-TOR (o/u at 211), PLAY OVER in DET-MIN (o/u at 216.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 216-233 SU and 202-243-4 ATS (45.4%) in the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (-15 vs DET), FADE ATLANTA (-11 vs POR), FADE INDIANA (-2.5 at CHI)
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 226-222 SU and 203-233-10 ATS (46.6%) the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (-15 vs DET)
Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams that coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing and are on a 149-123 SU and 156-109-7 ATS (58.9%) run.
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-10.5 at CHA), PLAY GOLDEN STATE (+4 at ORL)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 58-64 SU and 67-53-3 ATS (55.8%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY UTAH (-3.5 vs SAS)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 180-222 ATS (44.8%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 23-101 SU and 52-69-3 ATS (43%).
System Matches: FADE PORTLAND (+11 at ATL), FADE TORONTO (+13.5 vs NYK), FADE DETROIT (+15 at MIN), FADE HOUSTON (+7 at OKC)
NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 40-57 ATS (41.2%) in the next game, including 17-31 ATS (35.4%) on the road over the last three seasons.
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON (+7 at OKC)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). CHARLOTTE +10.5 (+1.8) and MEMPHIS +4 (+1.8), 3. GOLDEN STATE +4 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATLANTA -10.5 (+1.7), 2. INDIANA -2.5 (+0.7), 3. OKLAHOMA CITY -7 (+0.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHOENIX +7.5 (+2.2), 2. MEMPHIS +4 (+1.3), 3. PHILADELPHIA +5.5 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATLANTA -10.5 (+1.7), 2(tie). INDIANA -2.5 (+1.2) and MINNESOTA -15 (+1.2)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAL-MEM OVER 222 (+1.2), 2(tie). BKN-WSH OVER 222 (+0.5) and NYK-TOR OVER 211 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOU-OKC UNDER 231 (-3.9), 2. PHX-DEN UNDER 227 (-2.8), 3. SAS-UTA UNDER 229 (-2.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GOLDEN STATE +4 (+2.8), 2. MEMPHIS +4 (+2.0), 3(tie). CHARLOTTE +10.5 (+1.5) and SAN ANTONIO +3.5 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA -15 (+2.2), 2. OKLAHOMA CITY -7 (+1.6), 3. LA CLIPPERS -5.5 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GSW-ORL OVER 217 (+2.2), 2. POR-ATL OVER 217 (+2.1), 3. NYK-TOR OVER 211 (+1.7)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAS-UTA UNDER 229 (-4.5), 2. HOU-OKC UNDER 231 (-4.3), 3. IND-CHI UNDER 234.5 (-4.1)
Top Daily Head-To-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(543) GOLDEN STATE at (544) ORLANDO
* Home teams are 5-1 ATS in the last six of the GSW-ORL series
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS
(545) BROOKLYN at (546) WASHINGTON
* Under the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the BRK-WAS series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(547) CLEVELAND at (548) CHARLOTTE
* Road teams are on an 11-3-1 ATS surge in the CLE-CHA series
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS
(549) PORTLAND at (550) ATLANTA
* Home teams are on a 10-3 ATS run in the POR-ATL series
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA ATS
(551) LA CLIPPERS at (552) PHILADELPHIA
* PHILADELPHIA has won the last four ATS versus LA Clippers
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS
(553) NEW YORK at (554) TORONTO
* The last four games of the NYK-TOR series in Toronto went Over the total
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
(555) DETROIT at (556) MINNESOTA
* DETROIT has won the last three ATS versus Minnesota
System Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS
(557) HOUSTON at (558) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Home teams are on a 9-2 ATS run in the HOU-OKC series
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS
(559) LA LAKERS at (560) MEMPHIS
* Home teams are on a 9-2 ATS run in the LAL-MEM series
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS ATS
(561) INDIANA at (562) CHICAGO
* Road teams have swept the last four ATS in the IND-CHI series
System Match: PLAY INDIANA ATS
(563) SAN ANTONIO at (564) UTAH
* UTAH has won the last three ATS versus San Antonio
System Match: PLAY UTAH ATS
(565) PHOENIX at (566) DENVER
* Road teams have won the last three ATS in the PHO-DEN series
System Match: PLAY PHOENIX ATS
