HomeNBAVSiN Analytics NBA Betting Trend Report - March 3

    VSiN Analytics NBA Betting Trend Report – March 3

    Steve Makinen and the VSiN Analytics team share today's most important NBA betting trends for Sunday, March 3.

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    The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, March 3, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

    Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

    One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

     

    Top NBA Resources:

    In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
    System Matches (PLAY ALL): DALLAS, MINNESOTA, ORLANDO, CLEVELAND

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
    System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, OKLAHOMA CITY

    At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

    The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a complete opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
    System Matches (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
    System Matches (PLAY ALL): DALLAS, GOLDEN STATE, INDIANA

    The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
    System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON ML, ORLANDO ML

    These last four systems involve totals.

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
    System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PHI-DAL, LAC-MIN, DET-ORL, CHA-TOR, IND-SAS, OKC-PHX

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 56% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in a NBA game total, this majority group has been awful, 11-35 this season (23.9%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
    System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): PHI-DAL, CHA-TOR, IND-SAS

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
    System Matches: PLAY UNDER in LAC-MIN, PLAY UNDER in DET-ORL, PLAY OVER in NYK-CLE

    DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals this season, or those 240 or higher, majority number of bets groups have gone just 31-53 (36.9%).
    System Match: PLAY OVER instead in IND-SAS

    Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

    The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

    We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

    NO QUALIFYING GENERAL SCHEDULING SITUATIONS TODAY

    Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season

    There is still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. At this point, with over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what have been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these NBA betting trends will apply the rest of the way.

    BOSTON is 7-3 SU but 1-8-1 ATS (11.1%) at home this season versus teams with current Steve Makinen Power Ratings of 100 or higher.
    3/3 vs. Golden State
    System Match: FADE BOSTON (-11 vs GSW)

    PHOENIX is 8-2 Over the total (80%) when playing in the second of consecutive games against non-divisional conference opponents in the 2023-24 season.
    3/3 vs. Oklahoma City
    System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 233.5)

    SAN ANTONIO has gone 0-11 SU and 1-10 ATS (9.1%) this season against teams currently with mid-level Steve Makinen Power Ratings of 95-99.5.
    3/3 vs. Indiana
    System Match: FADE SAN ANTONIO (+6.5 vs IND)

    The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

    * GOLDEN STATE is 22-49 SU and 22-49 ATS on the road in the OneDayRest scenario over the last two seasons
    3/3: Fade GOLDEN STATE at Boston
    System Match: FADE GOLDEN STATE (+11 at BOS)

    * GOLDEN STATE is 24-13 OVER the total in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario over the last two seasons
    3/3: Over the total in BOSTON-GOLDEN STATE
    System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 230.5)

    * TORONTO is 30-10 SU and 29-11 ATS in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last two seasons
    3/3: TORONTO vs. Charlotte
    System Match: PLAY TORONTO (-7 vs CHA)

    NBA Team Strength Systems

    The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

    NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
    Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 143-29 SU but just 71-99-2 ATS (41.7%) over the last two seasons.
    System Matches: FADE BOSTON (-11 vs GSW)

    NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
    Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 77-58 (57%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 144-113 (56%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 177-133 (57.1%).
    System Matches: PLAY OVER in GSW-BOS (o/u at 230.5), PLAY OVER in DET-ORL (o/u at 217)

    NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

    These NBA betting trends systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

    135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
    Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 184-113 SU but 132-161-4 ATS (45.1%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is a concerning 26-32 ATS.
    System Match: FADE BOSTON (-11 vs GSW)

    Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
    NBA teams off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 127-78 SU but 88-113-4 ATS (43.8%) in the follow-up contest over the last 5-1/2 seasons. Included among this is a 74-100 ATS mark when not playing the next day.
    System Match: FADE DALLAS (-7.5 vs PHI)

    Unusual shooting performance systems
    Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 216-215 SU and 193-226-10 ATS (46.1%) the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
    System Match: FADE BOSTON (-11 vs GSW)

    Unusual defensive performances
    Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 136-51 SU and 104-81-2 ATS (56.2%) over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
    System Match: PLAY DALLAS (-7.5 vs PHI)

    NBA Streak Systems

    The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

    NBA Streak Betting System #3:
    Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 82-15 SU but 40-55-3 ATS (42.1%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
    System Matches: FADE BOSTON (-11 vs GSW)

    NBA Streak Betting System #8:
    Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 173-215 ATS (44.6%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 23-99 SU and 51-68-3 ATS (42.9%).
    System Matches: FADE BOSTON (-11 vs GSW)

    NBA Streak Betting System #9:
    Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 37-55 ATS (40.2%) in the next game, including 16-29 ATS (35.5%) on the road over the last three seasons.
    System Matches: FADE BOSTON (-11 vs GSW)

    Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

    The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

    Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. PHOENIX +5.5 (+2.0), 2. GOLDEN STATE +11 (+0.8), 3. LA CLIPPERS +1.5 (+0.6)

    Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS -7.5 (+2.0), 2. CLEVELAND -6.5 (+1.5)

    Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. SAN ANTONIO +6.5 (+0.3), 2. LA CLIPPERS +1.5 (+0.1)

    Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. ORLANDO -11 (+2.1), 2. TORONTO -7 (+1.1), 3. OKLAHOMA CITY -5.5 (+0.8)

    Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. DET-ORL OVER 217 (+1.7), 2. PHI-DAL OVER 236.5 (+1.2), 3. OKC-PHX OVER 233.5 (+0.7)

    Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. CHA-TOR UNDER 221.5 (-2.0), 2. LAC-MIN UNDER 219.5 (-1.6), 3. NYK-CLE UNDER 213.5 (-1.1)

    Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1(tie). GOLDEN STATE +11 (+2.6) and LA CLIPPERS +1.5 (+2.6), 3. PHOENIX +5.5 (+2.5)

    Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS -7.5 (+2.0), 2. CLEVELAND -6.5 (+1.0), 3. INDIANA -6.5 (+0.9)

    Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. IND-SAS OVER 242.5 (+3.4), 2. GSW-BOS OVER 230.5 (+2.2), 3. PHI-DAL OVER 236.5 (+2.1)

    Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
    Ratings Matches: 1. LAC-MIN UNDER 219.5 (-2.3), 2. CHA-TOR UNDER 221.5 (-2.1), 3. OKC-PHX UNDER 233.5 (-0.5)

    Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

    (587) CHARLOTTE at (588) TORONTO
    * TORONTO is on a 4-0 ATS streak hosting Charlotte
    System Match: PLAY TORONTO ATS

    (585) DETROIT at (586) ORLANDO
    * ORLANDO has won the last three ATS vs. Detroit
    System Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS

    (583) GOLDEN STATE at (584) BOSTON
    * GOLDEN STATE has won the last six ATS vs. Boston
    System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE ATS

    (589) INDIANA at (590) SAN ANTONIO
    * Over the total is 7-3 in the last 10 of the IND-SAN series
    System Match: PLAY OVER the total

    (581) LA CLIPPERS at (582) MINNESOTA
    * MINNESOTA is on a 6-1 ATS run vs. LA Clippers
    System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS

    (591) NEW YORK at (592) CLEVELAND
    * NEW YORK is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 at Cleveland
    System Match: PLAY NEW YORK ATS

    (593) OKLAHOMA CITY at (594) PHOENIX
    * OKLAHOMA CITY is 7-3-1 ATS at Phoenix since 2018
    System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS

    (579) PHILADELPHIA at (580) DALLAS
    * DALLAS is on a 7-2 ATS run hosting Philadelphia
    System Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS

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