The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Wednesday, March 6, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, GOLDEN STATE, LA LAKERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA CLIPPERS, CHICAGO, OKLAHOMA CITY

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing a number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, PHILADELPHIA, LA CLIPPERS, OKLAHOMA CITY

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, CHICAGO, GOLDEN STATE

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on handle for +24.21 units, an R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.s are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY ML

These last two systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): ORL-WSH, CLE-ATL, MEM-PHI, CHI-UTA, MIL-GSW, SAC-LAL

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PLAY UNDER in CLE-ATL, PLAY UNDER in MEM-PHI

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Home teams playing an A2H b2b game were 28-24 SU and 28-24 ATS (53.8%) hosting teams playing in a 4th in 6 Days game last season.
3/6: ATLANTA vs. Cleveland
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (-2 vs CLE)

3/6: PHILADELPHIA vs. Memphis
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-6 vs MEM)

* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 30-25 SU and 32-23 ATS (58.2%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game last season.
3/6: HOUSTON vs. LA Clippers
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON (+6.5 vs LAC)

* Host teams playing on a H2H b2b were 55-42 SU and 51-45-1 ATS (53.1%) hosting teams playing a One Day Rest game over the last two seasons.
3/6: HOUSTON vs. LA Clippers
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON (+6.5 vs LAC)

* Over the total was 74-51 (59.2%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road game.
3/6: Over the total in HOUSTON-LA CLIPPERS
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 223)

* Under the total was 49-46-1 (51.6%) last season when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
3/6: Under the total in LA CLIPPERS-HOUSTON
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 223)

* Over the total was 25-15 (62.5%) last season when the home team was on an A2H b2b and the road team was playing a 3rd in 4 Days game.
3/6: Over the total in ATLANTA-CLEVELAND
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 215.5)

Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season

There is still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. With over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what have been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these NBA betting trends will apply the rest of the way.

CHICAGO is 17-6 Over the total (73.9%) versus teams from the Western Conference this season.
3/6 at Utah
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 223.5)

The LA CLIPPERS boast a phenomenal 27-11 SU and 24-14 ATS (63.2%) record as a single-digit favorite this season.
3/6 at Houston
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS (-6.5 at HOU)

MILWAUKEE is 8-0 Under the total (100%) on the road versus Western Conference foes so far this season.
3/6 at Golden State
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 227.5)

MILWAUKEE has struggled in the ordinary One Day Rest scheduling scenario this season, going 22-15 SU but 14-23 ATS (37.8%).
3/6 at Golden State
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (+4 at GSW)

WASHINGTON is 19-12 ATS (61.3%) as a road underdog this season but 9-19 ATS (32.1%) as a home underdog
3/6 vs Orlando
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (+7 vs ORL)

The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* GOLDEN STATE is 23-8 Under the total at home in the 2 Days Rest scenario over the last three seasons
3/6: Under the total in GOLDEN STATE-MILWAUKEE
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 227.5)

* PHILADELPHIA is 22-13 SU and 21-14 ATS at home in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario over the last two seasons
3/6: PHILADELPHIA vs. Memphis
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-6 vs MEM)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based upon some various team strength indicator or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 77-59 (56.6%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 144-113 (56%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 178-134 (57.1%).
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in OKC-POR (o/u at 224)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 127-79 SU but 88-114-4 ATS (43.6%) in the follow-up contest over the last 5-1/2 seasons. Included among this is a 74-101 ATS mark when not playing the next day.
System Match: FADE GOLDEN STATE (-4 vs MIL)

Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
Since the start of the 2018-19 season, NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing, going 105-110 SU but 113-89-3 ATS (55.9%), including 83-46 ATS when installed as underdogs.
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (+7 vs ORL)

Favorites flush low-scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 122-43 SU and 101-62-2 ATS (62%) in their last 165 tries.
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE (-4 vs MIL)

Unusual shooting performance systems

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 217-216 SU and 194-227-10 ATS (46.1%) the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (+2 at ATL)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 115-141 SU and 114-136-6 ATS (45.6%) in that next contest over the last 5-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (+2 at ATL)

Unusual defensive performances
Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebound well when favored the next time out, going 136-52 SU and 104-82-2 ATS (55.9%) over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE (-4 vs MIL)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #1:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least four games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 26-50 SU but 42-34 ATS (55.3%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: CONSIDER PLAYING WASHINGTON (+7 vs ORL)

NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 47-14 SU and 37-22-2 ATS (62.7%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches: PLAY ORLANDO (*only if they become -7.5 or more favorites at WSH (-7 currently)*)

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 4.2% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (153-170 ATS, 47.4%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (207-194 ATS, 51.6%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: CONSIDER PLAYING WASHINGTON (+7 vs ORL)

NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 57-59 SU and 66-48-3 ATS (57.9%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY WASHINGTON (+7 vs ORL)

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 174-217 ATS (44.5%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 23-100 SU and 51-69-3 ATS (42.5%).
System Matches: FADE WASHINGTON (+7 vs ORL)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND +2 (+3.8), 2. HOUSTON +6.5 (+1.6), 3. UTAH +3.5 (+1.0)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -13.5 (+3.6), 2. LA LAKERS -2 (+1.4), 3. ORLANDO -7 (+1.1)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PORTLAND +13.5 (+2.6), 2. HOUSTON +6.5 (+2.5), 3. WASHINGTON +7 (+1.7)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA -6 (+2.1), 2. ATLANTA -2 (+1.1), 3. LA LAKERS -2 (+1.0)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAC-LAL OVER 238.5 (+1.4), 2. MIL-GSW OVER 227.5 (+1.1), 3. LAC-HOU OVER 223 (+1.0)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORL-WSH UNDER 224.5 (-1.7), 2. OKC-POR UNDER 224 (-1.1)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND +2 (+3.2), 2. UTAH +3.5 (+1.5), 3. HOUSTON +6.5 (+1.1)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -13.5 (+2.9), 2. LA LAKERS -2 (+1.2), 3. PHILADELPHIA -6 (+0.9)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAC-LAL OVER 238.5 (+6.5), 2. ORL-WSH OVER 224.5 (+2.7), 3. LAC-HOU OVER 223 (+2.2)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIL-GSW UNDER 227.5 (-1.6)

Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:

(531) ORLANDO at (532) WASHINGTON
* Favorites are on a 7-1 ATS run in the ORL-WAS series
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS

(533) CLEVELAND at (534) ATLANTA
* CLEVELAND has won the last four ATS versus Atlanta
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS

(535) MEMPHIS at (536) PHILADELPHIA
* PHILADELPHIA is on a 6-1 ATS surge hosting Memphis
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS

(537) LA CLIPPERS at (538) HOUSTON
* Under the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the LAC-HOU series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(539) CHICAGO at (540) UTAH
* CHICAGO is 5-1 ATS in the last six versus Utah
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS

(541) OKLAHOMA CITY at (542) PORTLAND
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 6-2 ATS in the last eight at Portland
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS

(543) MILWAUKEE at (544) GOLDEN STATE
* GOLDEN STATE has won the last four ATS hosting Milwaukee
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE ATS

(545) SACRAMENTO at (546) LA LAKERS
* SACRAMENTO is 6-1 ATS in the last seven at LA Lakers
System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO ATS

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