The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Friday, March 8, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE, NEW ORLEANS, ORLANDO, ATLANTA, MILWAUKEE, HOUSTON

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA, MILWAUKEE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW ORLEANS, CLEVELAND, ATLANTA, OKLAHOMA CITY, MILWAUKEE

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on handle for +24.21 units, an R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.s are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY): CHARLOTTE ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an R.O.I. of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a really significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHARLOTTE ML, MEMPHIS ML

These last two systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CHA-WSH, NOP-PHI, ATL-MEM, MIA-OKC, MIL-LAL, HOU-POR

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in MIN-CLE, PLAY OVER in ORL-NYK, PLAY OVER in ATL-MEM, PLAY OVER in HOU-POR

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 119-84 SU but 86-115-1 ATS (42.8%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
3/8: Fade NEW YORK vs. Orlando
System Match: FADE NEW YORK (+1.5 vs ORL)

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 51-38 SU but 36-53 ATS (40.4%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game over the last three seasons.
3/8: Fade NEW YORK vs. Orlando
System Match: FADE NEW YORK (+1.5 vs ORL)

* Home teams on One Day Rest are 45-34 SU and 45-33-1 ATS (57.7%) hosting teams playing on a 3rd Game in 8+ Days game over the last three seasons.
3/8: PHILADELPHIA vs. New Orleans
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (+7.5 vs NOP)

* Home teams playing a 4th in 6 Days game were 45-22 SU and 37-29-1 ATS (56.1%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.

3/8: CLEVELAND vs. Minnesota
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-1 vs MIN)

3/8: OKLAHOMA CITY vs. Miami
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (-9 vs MIA)

* Over the total was 72-52 (58.1%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on a A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.

3/8: Over the total in CLEVELAND-MINNESOTA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 207.5)

3/8: Over the total in OKLAHOMA CITY-MIAMI
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 224)

* Over the total was 64-54 (54.2%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on a A2A b2b and the host was playing a 3rd in 4 Days game.
3/8: Over the total in CLEVELAND-MINNESOTA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 207.5)

* Under the total was 32-19 (62.7%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.
3/8: Under the total in PHILADELPHIA-NEW ORLEANS
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 221.5)

* Over the total was 26-19 (57.8%) last season when the home team was on 2 Days Rest and the road team was playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game.
3/8: Over the total in NEW YORK-ORLANDO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 205)

Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season

There is still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. With over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what have been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these NBA betting trends will apply the rest of the way.

ATLANTA is 15-21 SU and 10-26 ATS (27.8%) when playing on a full day’s rest this season
3/8 at Memphis
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (-2.5 at MEM)

MILWAUKEE is 9-0 Under the total (100%) on the road versus Western Conference foes so far this season.
3/8 at LA Lakers
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 232)

MILWAUKEE has struggled in the ordinary One Day Rest scheduling scenario this season, going 22-16 SU but 14-24 ATS (36.8%).
3/8 at LA Lakers
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (-2.5 at LAL)

ORLANDO has thrived in the commonplace One Day Rest scheduling scenario this season, going 27-8 SU and 27-8 ATS (77.1%).
3/8 at New York
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (-1.5 at NYK)

The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* ATLANTA is 19-36 SU and 16-38 ATS in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario over the last two seasons
3/8: FADE ATLANTA at Memphis
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (-2.5 at MEM)

* HOUSTON is 31-11 Over the total on the road in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario over the last three seasons
3/8: OVER the total in PORTLAND-HOUSTON
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 218.5)

* MEMPHIS is 50-19 SU and 41-27 ATS at home in the One Day Rest scenario over the last two seasons
3/8: MEMPHIS vs. Atlanta
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS (+2.5 vs ATL)

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 37-18 Over the total at home in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario over the last three seasons
3/8: Over the total in MIAMI-OKLAHOMA CITY
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 224)

* ORLANDO is 14-10 SU and 20-4 ATS in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario lately
3/8: ORLANDO at New York
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (-1.5 at NYK)

* PHILADELPHIA is 22-14 SU and 21-15 ATS at HOME in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario over the last two seasons
3/8: PHILADELPHIA vs. New Orleans
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (+7.5 vs NOP)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trends systems for teams based upon some various team strength indicator or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on an 86-52 SU and 84-51-3 ATS (62.2%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY CHARLOTTE (+2 at WSH)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 185-115 SU but 133-163-4 ATS (44.9%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is a concerning 26-32 ATS.
System Match: FADE NEW ORLEANS (-7.5 at PHI)

Favorites flush low-scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 123-43 SU and 102-62-2 ATS (62.2%) in their last 166 tries.
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-2.5 at LAL)

Unusual shooting performance systems

NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 261-205 (56%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY UNDER in MIA-OKC (o/u at 224)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 217-217 SU and 194-228-10 ATS (46%) the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE NEW ORLEANS (-7.5 at PHI)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 115-142 SU and 114-137-6 ATS (45.4%) in that next contest over the last 5-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE NEW ORLEANS (-7.5 at PHI)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 4.1% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (153-170 ATS, 47.4%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (207-195 ATS, 51.5%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: *conflict b/c CHA-WSH is a matchup*

NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 57-60 SU and 66-49-3 ATS (57.4%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY WASHINGTON (-2 vs CHA)

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 174-218 ATS (44.4%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 23-100 SU and 51-69-3 ATS (42.5%).
System Matches: FADE WASHINGTON (-2 vs CHA)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA LAKERS +2.5 (+2.8), 2. CHARLOTTE +2 (+1.6), 3. MINNESOTA +1 (+1.5)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON -6 (+2.8), 2. NEW ORLEANS -7.5 (+2.2), 3. ATLANTA -2 (+2.1)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHARLOTTE +2 (+1.7), 2. LA LAKERS +2.5 (+1.4)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON -6 (+1.7), 2. OKLAHOMA CITY -9 (+1.2), 3. NEW ORLEANS -7.5 (+0.7)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NOP-PHI OVER 221.5 (+1.7), 2. ORL-NYK OVER 205.5 (+1.1), 3. CHA-WSH OVER 225.5 (+0.6)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATL-MEM UNDER 216 (-1.2), 2. MIL-LAL UNDER 232 (-0.7), 3. MIN-CLE UNDER 207.5 (-0.3)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK +1.5 (+3.9), 2. LA LAKERS +2.5 (+2.5), 3. CHARLOTTE +2 (+2.3)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON -6 (+3.1), 2. ATLANTA -2 (+2.9), 3. NEW ORLEANS -7.5 (+1.4)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NOP-PHI OVER 221.5 (+4.4), 2. ATL-MEM OVER 216 (+2.7), 3. MIL-LAL OVER 232 (+1.9)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHA-WSH UNDER 225.5 (-0.5), 2. MIN-CLE UNDER 207.5 (-0.2)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(569) ATLANTA at (570) MEMPHIS
* MEMPHIS has won the last three ATS versus Atlanta
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS ATS

(561) CHARLOTTE at (562) WASHINGTON
* Underdogs are on a 6-1 ATS run in the CHA-WAS series
System Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE ATS

(575) HOUSTON at (576) PORTLAND
* PORTLAND has won the last four ATS vs. Houston
System Match: PLAY PORTLAND ATS

(571) MIAMI at (572) OKLAHOMA CITY
* OKLAHOMA CITY has won the last four ATS versus Miami
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS

(573) MILWAUKEE at (574) LA LAKERS
* MILWAUKEE is 5-1 ATS in the last six at LA Lakers
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE ATS

(565) MINNESOTA at (566) CLEVELAND
* MINNESOTA has won the last five ATS at Cleveland
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS

(563) NEW ORLEANS at (564) PHILADELPHIA
* NEW ORLEANS is on a 9-3-1 ATS surge vs. Philadelphia
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS ATS

(567) ORLANDO at (568) NEW YORK
* ORLANDO is on a four-game ATS win streak vs. New York
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS

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