The following are NBA betting trends featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Wednesday, January 31, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:15 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These NBA betting trends systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): CLEVELAND

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2 year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA CLIPPERS, CHICAGO, NEW ORLEANS, ORLANDO, PHOENIX, MILWAUKEE

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a complete opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA CLIPPERS, CHICAGO, PHOENIX

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these more rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA CLIPPERS, SACRAMENTO, ORLANDO, PHOENIX, MILWAUKEE

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on handle for +24.21 units, an R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.’s are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND ML, NEW ORLEANS ML, DENVER ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an R.O.I. of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a real significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DALLAS ML, DENVER ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until somethings changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND ML, LA CLIPPERS ML, MILWAUKEE ML

These last three systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in a NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much”, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with UNDER the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): LAC-WSH, CHI-CHA, SAC-MIA, ORL-SAS, DAL-MIN, DEN-OKC

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 56% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in a NBA game total, this majority group has been awful, 11-35 this season (23.9%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY OVER): LAC-WSH

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER): CHI-CHA

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Teams playing a 4th Straight Home game are 21-5 SU and 17-9 ATS (65.4%) hosting teams playing in an H2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
1/31: CHARLOTTE vs. Chicago
System Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE (+5 vs CHI)

* Under the total was 85-53 (61.6%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
1/31: Under the total in PORTLAND-MILWAUKEE
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 236.5)

* Over the total was 35-26 (57.4%) last season when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
1/31: Over the total in CHARLOTTE-CHICAGO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 215.5)

The following are some of the top team specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* BROOKLYN is 23-11 UNDER the total in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last two seasons
1/31: Under the total in PHOENIX-BROOKLYN
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 232)

* CHARLOTTE is 27-12 Under the total in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last three seasons
1/31: UNDER the total in CHICAGO-CHARLOTTE
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 215.5)

* LA CLIPPERS is 15-3 Over the total in the 4th Straight Road game scenario over the last three seasons
1/31: Over the total in WASHINGTON-LA CLIPPERS
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 236.5)

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 36-17 Over the total at home in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario over the last three seasons
1/31: Over the total in DENVER-OKLAHOMA CITY
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 227.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trends systems for teams based upon some various team strength indicator or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 125-26 SU but just 59-90-2 ATS (39.6%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE LA CLIPPERS (-12 at WSH), FADE MILWAUKEE (-10.5 at POR)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 71-56 (55.9%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 130-106 (55.1%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 173-122 (58.6%).
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in DET-CLE (o/u at 232), PLAY OVER in LAC-WSH (o/u at 236.5), PLAY OVER in DAL-MIN (o/u at 220.5), PLAY OVER in MIL-POR (o/u at 236.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trends systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.

BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES

Teams that scored 134 points or more in any given game have had trouble duplicating that success in their next outing, as they are just 221-227 SU and 193-243-12 ATS (44.3%) in the follow-up contest.
System Matches: FADE BROOKLYN (+3 vs PHX), FADE HOUSTON (+2 vs NOP)

NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 252-200 (55.8%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY UNDER in DAL-MIN (o/u at 220.5)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 207-204 SU, but 183-215-13 ATS (46%) the next game over the last three seasons.
System Match: FADE BROOKLYN (+3 vs PHX)

BLOWOUT GAMES ARE RED FLAGS

NBA teams that beat a point spread by 30 points or more in any given game have gone just 70-67 SU and 61-71-5 ATS (46.2%) in their next game.
System Matches: FADE BROOKLYN (+3 vs PHX), FADE PORTLAND (+10.5 vs MIL)

NBA Streak Systems

The following information details nine NBA betting trends systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #1:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least four games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 24-48 SU but 39-33 ATS (54.2%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: PLAY MIAMI (-1.5 vs SAC)

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 5.1% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (143-162 ATS, 46.9%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (195-180 ATS, 52%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: CONSIDER FADING CHARLOTTE (+5 vs CHI)

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 161-202 ATS (44.4%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 20-93 SU and 47-63-3 ATS (42.7%).
System Matches: FADE MIAMI (-1.5 vs SAC)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SACRAMENTO +1.5 (+2.3), 2. DENVER +1 (+1.9), 3. WASHINGTON +12 (+0.6)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND -12.5 (+3.5), 2. ORLANDO -5 (+2.8), 3. CHICAGO -5 (+1.2)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHARLOTTE +5 (+2.2), 2. PORTLAND +10.5 (+1.4), 3. HOUSTON +2 (+0.6)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND -12.5 (+3.8), 2. ORLANDO -5 (+1.4), 3. LA CLIPPERS -12 (+1.3)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAC-WSH OVER 236.5 (+1.8), 2. MIL-POR OVER 236.5 (+0.7), 3. CHI-CHA OVER 215.5 (+0.5)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DET-CLE UNDER 232 (-2.7), 2. NOP-HOU UNDER 231.5 (-2.2), 3. PHX-BKN UNDER 233.5 (-2.1)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER +1 (+4.1), 2. HOUSTON +2 (+1.9), 3. SACRAMENTO +1.5 (+1.0)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND -12.5 (+5.3), 2. ORLANDO -5 (+2.7), 3. CHICAGO -5 (+1.8)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DAL-MIN OVER 220.5 (+5.0), 2. LAC-WSH OVER 236.5 (+2.6), 3. CHI-CHA OVER 215.5 (+1.2)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DET-CLE UNDER 232 (-4.0), 2. PHX-BKN UNDER 233.5 (-3.3), 3. DEN-OKC UNDER 227.5 (-2.5)

Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:

(565) DETROIT at (566) CLEVELAND
* The last six games of the DET-CLE series went Under the total
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(567) LA CLIPPERS at (568) WASHINGTON
* LA CLIPPERS are 11-2 ATS in the last 13 versus Washington
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS ATS

(569) CHICAGO at (570) CHARLOTTE
* CHICAGO is on a 10-2-1 ATS surge versus Charlotte
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS

(571) SACRAMENTO at (572) MIAMI
* Underdogs are 9-4 ATS in the last 13 of the SAC-MIA series
System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO ATS

(573) NEW ORLEANS at (574) HOUSTON
* The last six games of the NOP-HOU series went Under the total
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(575) ORLANDO at (576) SAN ANTONIO
* Over the total is 8-2 in the last 10 of the ORL-SAN series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(577) DALLAS at (578) MINNESOTA
* Under the total is 6-2 in the last eight of the DAL-MIN series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(579) DENVER at (580) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Road teams are on a nine-game ATS winning streak in the DEN-OKC series
System Match: PLAY DENVER ATS

(581) PHOENIX at (582) BROOKLYN
* Underdogs have won the last three ATS in the PHO-BRK set
System Match: PLAY BROOKLYN ATS

(583) MILWAUKEE at (584) PORTLAND
* MILWAUKEE is 10-2 ATS at Portland since 2012
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE ATS

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