The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Wednesday, February 7, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 PM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2 year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, GOLDEN STATE, NEW ORLEANS

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing the number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, GOLDEN STATE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GOLDEN STATE, MIAMI, SACRAMENTO

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND ML, BOSTON ML, SACRAMENTO ML

These last three systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CLE-WSH, NOP-LAC, DET-SAC

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 56% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in an NBA game total, this majority group has been awful, 11-35 this season (23.9%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY OVER): DET-SAC

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals this season, or those 240 or higher, majority number of bets groups have gone just 31-53 (36.9%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER instead in DET-SAC, PLAY UNDER instead in ATL-BOS

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 60-40 SU and 65-32-1 ATS (67%) versus teams playing a 3rd Game in 4 Days over the last three seasons.
2/7: SAN ANTONIO vs. Miami
System Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO (+8 at MIA)

* Home teams playing on 3+ Day Rest were 10-2 SU and 11-0-1 ATS (100%) last season hosting teams playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game.
2/7: SAN ANTONIO vs. Miami
System Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO (+8 at MIA)

* Home teams playing in a 4th in 6 Days game scenario were 21-9 SU and 19-11 ATS (65.5%) last season hosting teams playing on 3+ Days Rest.
2/7: MIAMI vs. San Antonio
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (-8 vs SAS)

* Under the total was 88-53 (62.4%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
2/7: Under the total in CHARLOTTE-TORONTO
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 225.5)

The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* ATLANTA was 30-10 Over the total in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario last season
2/7: Over the total in BOSTON-ATLANTA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 244.5)

* CHARLOTTE is 27-13 Under the total in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last three seasons
2/7: Under the total in TORONTO-CHARLOTTE
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 225.5)

* GOLDEN STATE is 19-49 SU and 19-49 ATS on the road in the One Day Rest scenario over the last two seasons
2/7: Fade GOLDEN STATE at Philadelphia
System Match: FADE GOLDEN STATE (-4.5 at PHI)

* GOLDEN STATE is 24-10 Over the total in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario over the last two seasons
2/7: Over the total in PHILADELPHIA-GOLDEN STATE
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 235.5)

* WASHINGTON is 15-4 Over the total at home in the 2 Days Rest scenario over the last three seasons
2/7: Over the total in WASHINGTON-CLEVELAND
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 234)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trends systems for teams based upon some various team strength indicator or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 58-18 SU and 52-23-1 ATS (69.3%).
System Matches: PLAY TORONTO (-7 at CHA)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 132-27 SU but just 63-94-2 ATS (40.1%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE SACRAMENTO (-13.5 vs DET)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 72-58 (55.4%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 137-107 (56.1%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 173-124 (58.2%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in CLE-WSH (o/u at 234), PLAY OVER in ATL-BOS (o/u at 244.5), PLAY OVER in DET-SAC (o/u at 242)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

EXTREME SCORING SYSTEMS

135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 178-110 SU but 127-157-4 ATS (44.7%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is a concerning 24-32 ATS.
System Matches: FADE CLEVELAND (-11.5 at WSH), FADE LA CLIPPERS (-7 vs NOP)

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams, off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored, have gone 123-74 SU but 85-108-4 ATS (44%) in the follow-up contest over the last 5-1/2 seasons. Included among this is a 73-95 ATS mark when not playing the next day.
System Matches: FADE TORONTO (-7 at CHA), FADE LA CLIPPERS (-7 vs NOP), FADE SACRAMENTO (-13.5 vs DET)

QUALITY OF WINS/LOSSES CAN MATTER

Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20-points or more are 229-179 SU but 177-220-11 ATS (44.6%) over the last 5-1/2 seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 32-57 ATS.
System Matches: FADE MIAMI (-8 vs SAS), FADE BOSTON (-12 vs ATL)

UNUSUAL SHOOTING PERFORMANCE SYSTEMS

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 196-215 SU and 182-226-3 ATS (44.6%) in the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Matches: FADE LA CLIPPERS (-7 vs NOP), FADE ATLANTA (+12 at BOS), FADE CLEVELAND (-11.5 at WSH)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 207-206 SU and 184-217-10 ATS (45.9%) the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Matches: FADE LA CLIPPERS (-7 vs NOP), FADE ATLANTA (+12 at BOS), FADE CLEVELAND (-11.5 at WSH)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 107-137 SU and 106-132-6 ATS (44.5%) in that next contest over the last 5-1/2 seasons.
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA (+12 at BOS), FADE CLEVELAND (-11.5 at WSH)

UNUSUAL DEFENSIVE PERFORMANCES

Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 129-47 SU and 98-76-2 ATS (56.3%) over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Matches: PLAY LA CLIPPERS (-7 vs. NOP), PLAY SACRAMENTO (-13.5 vs. DET)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trends systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 44-12 SU and 35-19-2 ATS (64.8%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches: PLAY CLEVELAND (-11.5 at WSH)

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 5% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (143-163 ATS, 46.7%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (196-183 ATS, 51.7%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: CONSIDER FADING CHARLOTTE (+7 vs TOR)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA +4.5 (+3.5), 2. ATLANTA +12 (+0.7)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND -11.5 (+1.9), 2. SACRAMENTO -13.5 (+1.6), 3. MIAMI -8 (+1.3)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS +7 (+1.7), 2. WASHINGTON +11.5 (+1.3), 3. PHILADELPHIA +4.5 (+0.2)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TORONTO -7 (+2.2), 2. MIAMI -8 (+2.1), 3. BOSTON -12 (+1.7)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TOR-CHA OVER 225.5 (+2.3), 2. ATL-BOS OVER 243.5 (+1.1), 3. SAS-MIA OVER 226.5 (+0.9)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLE-WSH UNDER 234 (-1.0), 2. GSW-PHI UNDER 235.5 (-0.2)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA +4.5 (+5.4), 2. ATLANTA +12 (+0.5), 3. CHARLOTTE +7 (+0.2)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SACRAMENTO -13.5 (+4.2), 2. CLEVELAND -11.5 (+4.0), 3. MIAMI -8 (+2.9)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAS-MIA OVER 226.5 (+9.4), 2. ATL-BOS OVER 243.5 (+4.0), 3. TOR-CHA OVER 225.5 (+3.3)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DET-SAC UNDER 242 (-2.1), 2. CLE-WSH UNDER 234 (-1.3)

Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:

(501) TORONTO at (502) CHARLOTTE
* TORONTO is on a 5-1 ATS surge versus Charlotte
System Match: PLAY TORONTO ATS

(503) CLEVELAND at (504) WASHINGTON
* CLEVELAND has won the last five ATS vs. Washington
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS

(505) GOLDEN STATE at (506) PHILADELPHIA
* Home teams have won the last five ATS in the GSW-PHI series
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS

(507) SAN ANTONIO at (508) MIAMI
* SAN ANTONIO is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 visits to Miami
System Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO ATS

(509) ATLANTA at (510) BOSTON
* BOSTON is on a 7-1 ATS run hosting Atlanta
System Match: PLAY BOSTON ATS

(511) NEW ORLEANS at (512) LA CLIPPERS
* NEW ORLEANS is 6-1 ATS in the last seven trips to LA Clippers
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS ATS

(513) DETROIT at (514) SACRAMENTO
* Road teams have won the last eight ATS in the DET-SAC series
System Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR