The following is a collection of NBA betting trends featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Monday, January 29, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

NBA Betting Trend Strategies Using DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:45 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, SAN ANTONIO, OKLAHOMA CITY, DENVER

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wager. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2 year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA CLIPPERS, NEW YORK, PHILADELPHIA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 27-19 ATS record (58.7%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 46 games was only 3.6% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY): MEMPHIS

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing a number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA CLIPPERS, NEW YORK, PHOENIX, BOSTON, LA LAKERS, PHILADELPHIA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA CLIPPERS, PHOENIX, BOSTON, UTAH, SAN ANTONIO, DALLAS, DENVER, PHILADELPHIA

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on the handle for +24.21 units, an R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.s are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an R.O.I. of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a real significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHOENIX ML, WASHINGTON ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA ML

These last three systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): WSH-SAS, MIN-OKC, SAC-MEM, MIL-DEN

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 56% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in an NBA game total, this majority group has been awful, 11-35 this season (23.9%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY OVER): WSH-SAS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): WSH-SAS

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 109-80 SU but 78-109-1 ATS (41.7%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
1/29: FADE CLEVELAND vs. La Clippers
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (+2.5 vs LAC)

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 45-37 SU BUT 31-51 ATS (37.8%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game over the last three seasons.
1/29: FADE CLEVELAND vs. La Clippers
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (+2.5 vs LAC)

* Home teams playing a 4th in 6 Days game were 41-17 SU and 33-24-1 ATS (57.9%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
1/29: MIAMI vs. Phoenix
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (-3 vs PHX)

* Home teams playing an A2H b2b game were 27-21 SU and 27-21 ATS (56.3%) hosting teams playing in a 4th in 6 Days game last season.
1/29: OKLAHOMA CITY vs. Minnesota
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (-2.5 vs MIN)

* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 24-22 SU and 27-19 ATS (58.7%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game last season.
1/29: PORTLAND vs. Philadelphia
System Match: PLAY PORTLAND (+10 vs PHI)

* Host teams playing on a H2H b2b were 44-38 SU and 43-38-1 ATS (53.1%) hosting teams playing a One Day Rest game last season.
1/29: PORTLAND vs. Philadelphia
System Match: PLAY PORTLAND (+10 vs PHI)

* Under the total was 83-52 (61.5%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
1/29: Under the total in CHARLOTTE-NEW YORK
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 221.5)

1/29: Under the total in SAN ANTONIO-WASHINGTON
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 241.5)

* Over the total was 72-43 (62.6%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on a A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
1/29: Over the total in MIAMI-PHOENIX
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 229.5)

* Over the total was 70-46 (60.3%) over the last three  seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road game.
1/29: Over the total in PORTLAND-PHILADELPHIA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 223)

* Under the total was 43-38 (53.1%) last season when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
1/29: Under the total in PHILADELPHIA-PORTLAND
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 223)

* Over the total was 34-26 (56.7%) last season when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
1/29: Over the total in DALLAS-ORLANDO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 227.5)

* Over the total was 23-15 (60.5%) last season when the home team was on 2 Days Rest and the road team was playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game.
1/29: Over the total in CLEVELAND-LA CLIPPERS
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 225.5)

The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* BROOKLYN is 23-10 Under the total in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last two seasons
1/29: UNDER the total in UTAH-BROOKLYN
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 235.5)

* CHARLOTTE is 26-12 Under the total in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last three seasons
1/29: Under the total in NEW YORK-CHARLOTTE
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 221.5)

* HOUSTON is 13-40 SU and 18-34 ATS at home in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario over the last three seasons
1/29: FADE HOUSTON vs. La Lakers
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (+1 vs LAL)

* MEMPHIS is 26-10 SU and 22-13 ATS at HOME in the 4th in 6 Days scenario over the last two seasons
1/29: MEMPHIS vs. Sacramento
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS (+9 vs SAC)

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 36-16 Over the total at home in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario over the last three seasons
1/29: Over the total in MINNESOTA-OKLAHOMA CITY
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 224)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following NBA betting trends information details five betting systems for teams based upon some various team strength indicator or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 116-32 SU and 96-52 ATS (64.9%) run.
System Matches: PLAY DENVER (*if they fall into this range as a favorite vs MIL*)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on an 81-51 SU and 79-50-3 ATS (61.2%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY WASHINGTON (+4 at SAS)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 125-26 SU but just 59-90-2 ATS (39.6%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-10 at POR)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 71-56 (55.9%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 130-106 (55.1%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 173-120 (59%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in PHI-POR (o/u at 223)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trends systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.

BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES

Teams that scored 134 points or more in any given game have had trouble duplicating that success in their next outing, as they are just 220-224 SU and 192-240-12 ATS (44.4%) in the follow-up contest.
System Matches: FADE LA LAKERS (-1 at HOU), FADE UTAH (PK at BKN), FADE MILWAUKEE (+4 at DEN)

NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 250-197 (55.9%) since 2021.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in LAL-HOU (o/u at 231.5), PLAY UNDER in NOP-BOS (o/u at 236), PLAY UNDER in MIL-DEN (o/u at 238), PLAY UNDER in UTA-BKN (o/u at 235.5)

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 191-215 SU and 175-228-3 ATS (43.4%) in the next game.
System Matches: FADE NEW YORK (-9 at CHA), FADE MINNESOTA (+2.5 at OKC)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 206-203 SU, but 182-214-13 ATS (46%) the next game over the last three seasons.
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (+4 at DEN)

UNUSUAL DEFENSIVE PERFORMANCES

NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 106-75 SU and 107-71-3 ATS (60.1%).
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS (-2.5 at CLE)

Alternatively to #5 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 129-46 SU and 98-75-2 ATS (56.6%).
System Match: PLAY LA LAKERS (-1 at HOU)

NBA Streak Systems

The following NBA betting trends detail nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #4:

Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 42-12 SU and 33-19-2 ATS (63.5%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.

System Matches: PLAY NEW YORK (-9 at CHA)

NBA Streak Betting System #5:

There has been a 5.4% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (142-162 ATS, 46.7%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (195-179 ATS, 52.1%) over the last three seasons.

System Matches: CONSIDER PLAYING MIAMI (-3 vs PHX)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHOENIX +3.5 (+3.0), 2(tie). NEW ORLEANS +8.5 (+2.2) and ORLANDO +4 (+2.2)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA LAKERS -1 (+0.7), 2. OKLAHOMA CITY -2.5 (+0.6), 3. NEW YORK -9 (+0.4)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). NEW ORLEANS +8.5 (+2.7) and MEMPHIS +9 (+2.7), 3. CLEVELAND +2.5 (+2.2)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA -10 (+2.4), 2. NEW YORK -9 (+1.8), 3. OKLAHOMA CITY -2.5 (+1.5)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAL-HOU OVER 231.5 (+2.3), 2. MIL-DEN OVER 238 (+2.0), 3. LAC-CLE OVER 225.5 (+1.9)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NOP-BOS UNDER 236 (-4.3), 2. UTA-BKN UNDER 235.5 (-1.9), 3. SAC-MEM UNDER 225 (-1.0)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHOENIX +3.5 (+2.5), 2. ORLANDO +4 (+2.0), 3. CLEVELAND +2.5 (+1.7)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA LAKERS -1 (+1.5), 2(tie). OKLAHOMA CITY -2.5 (+0.7) and NEW YORK -9 (+0.7)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHI-POR OVER 223 (+3.1), 2. LAC-CLE OVER 225.5 (+2.7), 3. MIL-DEN OVER 238 (+2.5)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NOP-BOS UNDER 236 (-5.6), 2. UTA-BKN UNDER 235.5 (-1.7)

Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:

(531) LA CLIPPERS at (532) CLEVELAND
* Over the total is 7-2 in the last nine of the LAC-CLE series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(543) LA LAKERS at (544) HOUSTON
* Home teams are 5-2 ATS in the last seven of the LAL-HOU series
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON ATS

(551) MILWAUKEE at (552) DENVER
* Road teams are on a 5-1 ATS run in the MIL-DEN series but lost last time
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE ATS

(545) MINNESOTA at (546) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Under the total is 7-2 in the last nine of the MIN-OKC series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(537) NEW ORLEANS at (538) BOSTON
* BOSTON has won the last four ATS vs. New Orleans
System Match: PLAY BOSTON ATS

(533) NEW YORK at (534) CHARLOTTE
* NEW YORK has won the last three ATS at Charlotte
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK ATS

(549) ORLANDO at (550) DALLAS
* DALLAS is on an 8-2-1 ATS run hosting Orlando
System Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS

(553) PHILADELPHIA at (554) PORTLAND
* Over the total is 8-2 in the last 10 of the PHI-POR series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(535) PHOENIX at (536) MIAMI
* PHOENIX has won the last four ATS at Miami
System Match: PLAY PHOENIX ATS

(547) SACRAMENTO at (548) MEMPHIS
* The last five games of the SAC-MEM series went Under the total
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(539) UTAH at (540) BROOKLYN
* Underdogs have swept the last four ATS in the UTA-BRK series
System Match: PLAY UNDERDOG (PK as of morning)

(541) WASHINGTON at (542) SAN ANTONIO
* Over the total is 13-3 in the last 16 of the WAS-SAN series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

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