The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Tuesday, February 6, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits data

 

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:45 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, MIAMI, PHOENIX

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2 year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DALLAS, MINNESOTA

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the “super” majority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing a number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): INDIANA, DALLAS, MINNESOTA, OKLAHOMA CITY

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, DALLAS, NEW YORK, MINNESOTA, PHOENIX

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on the handle for +24.21 units, an R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.’s are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority money line bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY): NEW YORK ML

These last three systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MEM-NYK, ORL-MIA, MIL-PHX

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MEM-NYK and ORL-MIA matchups have HANDLE favoring UNDER, but NUMBER of BETS favoring OVER, PLAY OVER in MIN-CHI

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals this season, or those 240 or higher, majority number of bets groups have gone just 31-53 (36.9%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER instead in MIL-PHX, PLAY UNDER instead in OKC-UTA, PLAY UNDER instead in HOU-IND

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Over the total was 64-47 (57.7%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on an A2A b2b and the host was playing a 3rd in 4 Days game.
2/6: Over the total in BROOKLYN-DALLAS
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 237)

* Over the total was 29-15 (65.9%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing an A2A b2b game.
2/6: Over the total in BROOKLYN-DALLAS
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 237)

The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* MILWAUKEE is 4-15 SU and 2-16 ATS in the 4th Straight Road game scenario over the last three seasons
2/6: Fade MILWAUKEE at Phoenix
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (+3.5 at PHX)

* ORLANDO is 14-8 SU and 20-2 ATS in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario lately
2/6: ORLANDO at Miami
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (+3 at MIA)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trends systems for teams based upon some various team strength indicator or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 131-27 SU but just 63-93-2 ATS (40.4%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE NEW YORK (-14.5 vs MEM)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 72-58 (55.4%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 136-107 (56%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 173-124 (58.2%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in MEM-NYK (o/u at 213)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trends systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.

BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES

Teams that scored 134 points or more in any given game have had trouble duplicating that success in their next outing, as they are just 224-233 SU and 196-249-12 ATS (44%) in the follow-up contest.
System Matches: FADE OKLAHOMA CITY (-3 at UTA), FADE PHOENIX (-3.5 vs MIL)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 207-206 SU, but 183-217-13 ATS (45.8%) the next game over the last three seasons.
System Match: FADE OKLAHOMA CITY (-3 at UTA)

UNUSUAL DEFENSIVE PERFORMANCES

NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 106-76 SU and 107-72-3 ATS (59.8%).
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-5 at CHI)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trends systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN +3 (+2.9), 2. ORLANDO +3 (+2.7), 3. UTAH +3 (+2.3)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHOENIX -3.5 (+2.9), 2. NEW YORK -14.5 (+0.4)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN +3 (+3.6), 2. HOUSTON +8 (+3.0), 3. ORLANDO +3 (+1.9)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHOENIX -3.5 (+4.2), 2. OKLAHOMA CITY -3 (+1.5), 3. MINNESOTA -5 (+1.2)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DAL-BKN OVER 237 (+2.5), 2. ORL-MIA OVER 212 (+2.1), 3. OKC-UTA OVER 240 (+1.6)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIN-CHI UNDER 216.5 (-1.9), 2. MEM-NYK UNDER 213 (-1.7), 3. HOU-IND UNDER 243 (-1.1)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN +3 (+2.9), 2. UTAH +3 (+2.5), 3. CHICAGO +5 (+1.1)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHOENIX -3.5 (+2.3), 2(tie). MIAMI -3 (+0.1) and NEW YORK -14.5 (+0.1)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DAL-BKN OVER 237 (+2.4), 2. OKC-UTA OVER 240 (+1.7), 3. ORL-MIA OVER 212 (+1.6)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEM-NYK UNDER 213 (-5.1), 2. HOU-IND UNDER 243 (-2.5), 3. MIN-CHI UNDER 216.5 (-1.1)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(571) HOUSTON at (572) INDIANA
* INDIANA is on a 6-2 ATS surge versus Houston
System Match: PLAY INDIANA ATS

(573) DALLAS at (574) BROOKLYN
* BROOKLYN has gone 4-1 ATS in last five vs. Dallas
System Match: PLAY BROOKLYN ATS

(575) MEMPHIS at (576) NEW YORK
* Road teams are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 of the MEM-NYK series
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS ATS

(577) ORLANDO at (578) MIAMI
* Home teams are 4-1 ATS in last five of the ORL-MIA series
System Match: PLAY MIAMI ATS

(579) MINNESOTA at (580) CHICAGO
* Over the total is 11-2 in the MIN-CHI series since 2017
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(581) OKLAHOMA CITY at (582) UTAH
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 18-4 ATS vs. Utah since 2017
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS

(583) MILWAUKEE at (584) PHOENIX
* Favorites are on a 9-1 ATS run in the MIL-PHO series
System Match: PLAY PHOENIX ATS

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