The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Monday, January 22, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

Strategies using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, TORONTO, MINNESOTA, PHOENIX, SACRAMENTO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2 year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, CLEVELAND, BOSTON

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing the number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE, PHILADELPHIA, CLEVELAND, BOSTON, PHOENIX

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA nonconference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, TORONTO, MINNESOTA, BOSTON, PHOENIX, SACRAMENTO

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on handle for +24.21 units, a R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.s are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY): MILWAUKEE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE ML, PHILADELPHIA ML, MINNESOTA ML

These last four systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much”, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with UNDER the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIL-DET, SAS-PHI, MEM-TOR, CHA-MIN, BOS-DAL, CHI-PHX, ATL-SAC

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 56% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in a NBA game total, this majority group has been awful, 11-35 this season (23.9%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY OVER): MIL-DET

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in CLE-ORL

*CHA-MIN matchup has handle favoring under but number of bets favoring over*

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals this season, or those 240 or higher, majority number of bets groups have gone just 31-53 (36.9%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER INSTEAD): MIL-DET

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 168-112 SU and 165-107 ATS (60.7%) versus teams playing on One Day Rest over the last three seasons.
1/22: SACRAMENTO vs. Atlanta
System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO (-8 vs ATL)

* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 59-40 SU and 64-32-1 ATS (66.7%) versus teams playing a 3rd Game in 4 Days over the last three seasons.
1/22: SACRAMENTO vs. Atlanta
System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO (-8 vs ATL)

* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 51-26 SU and 49-26-2 ATS (65.3%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last two seasons.
1/22: SACRAMENTO vs. Atlanta
System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO (-8 vs ATL)

* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest were 32-14 SU and 31-13-2 ATS (70.5%) hosting teams playing a 4th in 6 Days game last season.
1/22: SACRAMENTO vs. Atlanta
System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO (-8 vs ATL)

* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest were 27-17 SU but 21-22-1 ATS (48.8%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
1/22: Fade DALLAS vs. Boston
System Match: FADE DALLAS (+3.5 vs BOS)

* Host teams playing on a H2H b2b were 40-35 SU and 40-34-1 ATS (54.1%) hosting teams playing a One Day Rest game last season.
1/22: ORLANDO vs. Cleveland
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (+1.5 vs CLE)

1/22: PHOENIX vs. Chicago
System Match: PLAY PHOENIX (-5 vs CHI)

* Home teams playing on 3+ Day Rest were 9-2 SU and 10-0-1 ATS (100%) last season hosting teams playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game.
1/22: SACRAMENTO vs. Atlanta
System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO (-8 vs ATL)

* Over the total was 96-62 (60.8%) over the last two seasons when one team was on One Day Rest and the opponent was playing on 3+ Days Rest.
1/22: Over the total in SACRAMENTO-ATLANTA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 237.5)

* Under the total was 81-49 (62.3%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
1/22: Under the total in ORLANDO-CLEVELAND
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 215.5)

* Under the total was 40-34 (54.1%) last season when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
1/22: Under the total in CLEVELAND-ORLANDO
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 215.5)

1/22: Under the total in CHICAGO-PHOENIX
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 229)

* Over the total was 47-30 (61%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on 3+ Days Rest and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
1/22: Over the total in SACRAMENTO-ATLANTA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 237.5)

* Over the total was 26-19 (57.8%) last season when the home team was on 3+ Days Rest and the road team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
1/22: Over the total in SACRAMENTO-ATLANTA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 237.5)

The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* ATLANTA is 18-33 SU and 15-35 ATS in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario over the last two seasons
1/22: Fade ATLANTA at Sacramento
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (+8 at SAC)

* ATLANTA was 29-9 Over the total in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario last season
1/22: Over the total in SACRAMENTO-ATLANTA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 237.5)

* DALLAS is 13-11 SU and 5-17 ATS at home in the 2 Days Rest game scenario over the last three seasons
1/22: FADE DALLAS vs Boston
System Match: FADE DALLAS (+3.5 vs BOS)

* MEMPHIS is 18-7 Under the total in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario over the last two seasons
1/22: Under the total in TORONTO-MEMPHIS
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 226.5)

* SAN ANTONIO was 3-18 SU and 6-15 ATS in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario last season
1/22: Fade SAN ANTONIO at Philadelphia
System Match: FADE SAN ANTONIO (+14.5 at PHI)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five betting systems for teams based upon some various team strength indicator or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in nonconference games have gone 122-23 SU but just 57-86-2 ATS (39.9%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-14.5 vs. SAS), FADE MINNESOTA (-14.5 vs. CHA)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 69-56 (55.2%). In nonconference games, Over the total was 127-103 (55.2%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 172-119 (59.1%).
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in MIL-DET (o/u at 247), PLAY OVER in SAS-PHI (o/u at 237), PLAY OVER in CHA-MIN (o/u at 218.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.

BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES

Teams that scored 134 points or more in any given game have had trouble duplicating that success in their next outing, as they are just 214-216 SU and 186-234-10 ATS (44.3%) in the follow-up contest.
System Matches: FADE MILWAUKEE (-12 at DET), FADE DETROIT (+12 vs MIL)

NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 247-196 (55.8%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY UNDER in MIL-DET (o/u at 247)

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 188-209 SU and 171-224-2 ATS (43.3%) in the next game.
System Match: FADE DETROIT (+12 vs MIL)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 204-199 SU but 180-211-12 ATS (46%) the next game over the last three seasons.
System Match: FADE DETROIT (+12 vs MIL)

UNUSUAL DEFENSIVE PERFORMANCES

Alternatively to #5 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 125-44 SU and 95-72-2 ATS (56.9%).
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-12 at DET)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 76-14 SU but 36-52-3 ATS (40.9%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-14.5 vs SAS)

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 5.9% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (139-160 ATS, 46.5%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (195-177 ATS, 52.4%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: CONSIDER FADING SACRAMENTO (-8 vs ATL)

NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 51-44 SU and 55-38-3 ATS (59.1%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY SACRAMENTO (-8 vs ATL)

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 159-200 ATS (44.3%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 20-93 SU and 47-63-3 ATS (42.7%).
System Matches: FADE CLEVELAND (-1.5 at ORL)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORLANDO +1.5 (+2.4), 2. SAN ANTONIO +14.5 (+1.4), 3. DALLAS +3 (+0.2)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHOENIX -5 (+3.0), 2. SACRAMENTO -8 (+2.0), 3. TORONTO -7 (+1.4)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORLANDO +1.5 (+2.2), 2. MEMPHIS +7 (+0.1)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA -14.5 (+3.7), 2. PHILADELPHIA -14.5 (+2.9), 3. BOSTON -3 (+1.0)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEM-TOR OVER 225.5 (+2.6), 2. CLE-ORL OVER 215.5 (+1.3), 3. CHA-MIN OVER 218.5 (+1.2)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHI-PHX UNDER 229 (-4.0), 2. BOS-DAL UNDER 239 (-1.2), 3. MIL-DET UNDER 247 (-0.4)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHARLOTTE +14.5 (+2.9), 2. DALLAS +3 (+1.0), 3. ORLANDO +1.5 (+0.8)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MILWAUKEE -12 (+4.5), 2. PHOENIX -5 (+3.0), 3. TORONTO -7 (+2.2)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOS-DAL OVER 239 (+3.7), 2. CHA-MIN OVER 218.5 (+2.6), 3. MEM-TOR OVER 225.5 (+1.8)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHI-PHX UNDER 229 (-3.9), 2. CLE-ORL UNDER 215.5 (-0.6), 3. MIL-DET UNDER 247 (-0.2)

Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:

(515) ATLANTA at (516) SACRAMENTO
* The last seven games of the ATL-SAC series went Under the total
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(511) BOSTON at (512) DALLAS
* Under the total is 5-1-1 in the last seven of the BOS-DAL series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(509) CHARLOTTE at (510) MINNESOTA
* CHARLOTTE is 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight vs. Minnesota but lost last time
System Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE ATS

(513) CHICAGO at (514) PHOENIX
* PHOENIX is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four vs. Chicago
System Match: PLAY PHOENIX ATS

(505) CLEVELAND at (506) ORLANDO
* Favorites are 5-1 ATS in the last six of the CLE-ORL series
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS

(507) MEMPHIS at (508) TORONTO
* Road teams have won the last seven ATS in the MEM-TOR series
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS ATS

(501) MILWAUKEE at (502) DETROIT
* The last five games of the MIL-DET series went Over the total
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(503) SAN ANTONIO at (504) PHILADELPHIA
* Over the total is 6-2-1 in the last nine of the SAN-BOS series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

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