VSiN Analytics NBA Report for Saturday, December 16

70
 

 

 

The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on Saturday, December 16, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilize the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until tip-off for best usage.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. In other words, if you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, MINNESOTA, DENVER, LA CLIPPERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. This group was pretty sharp last season.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, DALLAS

 

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It’s a touch higher when analyzing the number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 81-55 ATS (59.6%) last season, leaps and bounds above the overall success of all majorities.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER, SACRAMENTO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA nonconference games (East versus West) of 2023, DK majority number of bets groups were highly successful, as they went 134-110 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.4% success rate, they were 3.5% improved on these rarer contests.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, BROOKLYN, LA CLIPPERS

 

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors took heavy losses on moneyline wagering last season. Here are some more detailed specifics:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle was on double-digit favorites in a 2023 NBA game, this majority group was 92-22 outright but lost -55.45 units, an R.O.I. of -48.6%. This is a significant loss rate and shows how losing just over one of every five games can still be damaging.

System Matches (FADE): MILWAUKEE ML

 

These last three systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I was able to uncover was when less than 60% of bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of the handle favored that total option, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it as much, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 271 of the games fit this criteria, but the results were astounding, with Under the total on these games going 163-108, good for 60.1%.

System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): ATL-CLE, IND-MIN, UTA-SAC

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 58% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in an NBA game total, this majority group was quite sharp, 40-19 ATS (67.8%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.

System Matches (PLAY UNDER): DET-MIL

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals last season, or those more than 242, the majority handle bettors were 18-7 (72%).

System Matches (PLAY UNDER): IND-MIN

 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 43-18 SU and 37-21-3 ATS (63.8%) hosting teams playing a A2A b2b game last season.

12/16: LA CLIPPERS vs. New York

System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS (-6 vs NYK)

12/16: MILWAUKEE vs. Detroit

System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-17 vs DET)

 

* Home teams playing a 4th in 6 Days game were 30-17 SU and 26-20-1 ATS (56.5%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.

12/16: CLEVELAND vs. Atlanta

System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-2.5 vs ATL)

12/16: LA CLIPPERS vs. New York

System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS (-6 vs NYK)

 

* Home teams playing a 2 Days Rest were 22-15 SU but 16-21 ATS (43.2%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.

12/16: FADE MILWAUKEE vs. Detroit

System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE ATS (-17 vs DET)

 

* Host teams playing a 4th Straight Home were 22-8 SU and 20-10 ATS (66.7%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.

12/16: LA CLIPPERS vs. New York

System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS (-6 vs NYK)

12/16: MILWAUKEE vs. Detroit

System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-17 vs DET)

 

* Under the total was 69-38 (64.5%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.

12/16: Under the total in MIAMI-CHICAGO

System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 218)

 

* Over the total was 65-39 (62.5%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on a A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.

12/16: Over the total in CLEVELAND-ATLANTA

System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 237.5)

12/16: Over the total in LA CLIPPERS-NEW YORK

System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 228)

 

* Under the total is 12-7 (63.2%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.

12/16: Under the total in CHARLOTTE-PHILADELPHIA

System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 232)

 

Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends

The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* ATLANTA is 18-29 SU and 15-31 ATS in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario over the last two seasons

12/16: FADE ATLANTA at Cleveland

System Match: FADE ATLANTA (+2.5 at CLE)

 

* ATLANTA was 26-8 OVER the total in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario last season

12/16: Over the total in CLEVELAND-ATLANTA

System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 237.5)

 

* GOLDEN STATE is 69-17 SU and 54-29 ATS at home in the One Day Rest scenario over the last three seasons

12/16: GOLDEN STATE vs. Brooklyn

System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE (-3.5 vs BKN)

 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:

In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 108-28 SU and 90-46 ATS (66.2%) run.

System Matches: PLAY DENVER (-4.5 vs OKC)

 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:

Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 66-54 (55%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 115-85 (57.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 165-110 (60%).

System Matches: PLAY UNDER in DET-MIL (o/u at 241.5)

*PLAY OVER in PHI-CHA and OVER in UTA-SAC (only if favorites become double-digit)

 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.

BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES