Strategies using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits data
The DK Betting Splits have taken off this season in their popularity. They have always been one of the most touted links on the VSiN.com website and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors.
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If you’re not familiar, these are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In preseason articles published in the 2023 Football Betting Guides, I outlined different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022 season for both college and pro football. I will be updating the systems in the Analytics Reports, as well as the Sunday (NFL) morning updates going forward.
Here are the DK Betting Splits NFL Systems and their updated performance records:
NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past 1-1/2 seasons, when more than 65% of the HANDLE has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 61-81 ATS (42.9%). The number for this “super-majority” in college football was closer to 80%. In other words, if you see 2/3 of the handle backing one side in a NFL game this season, it’s best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY, LA RAMS, BUFFALO, PHILADELPHIA
NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: The percentage breakdown can be expanded a bit for the number of BETS. When 63%+ of the number of BETS were on a particular side of an ATS wager since the start of the ’22 season, this majority group has gone 112-132 ATS (45.9%). Although these bettors are over .500 for the ’23 season, I’m still leaving this system on as I believe they will return to norms down the stretch. The NFL is the most public of all bet-able sports, if 63%+ of the bettors at DraftKings likes a particular side, I would still feel comfortable to fade em’.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY, TENNESSEE, ATLANTA, NY GIANTS, SAN FRANCISCO, LA RAMS, BALTIMORE, PHILADELPHIA
NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: In NFL divisional games of 2022 & 2023, DK majority HANDLE bettors have been absolutely awful, as this majority group is just 52-84 ATS (38.2%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t’ value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, HOUSTON, ATLANTA, SAN FRANCISCO
NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: Similarly to #3 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of BETS staked its side in a NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 55-78 ATS (41.3%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, TENNESSEE, ATLANTA, SAN FRANCISCO
NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the ’22 season, when the majority HANDLE & number of BETS has backed ROAD FAVORITES for an ATS wager, these majority groups are just 58-75 ATS (43.6%) & 56-76 ATS (42.4%) respectively. Both remain losing propositions and most often, these majorities match up.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY, ATLANTA, SAN FRANCISCO, BALTIMORE, PHILADELPHIA
NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority HANDLE & number of BETS was on ROAD UNDERDOGS for an ATS wager, these majority groups have actually produced adequate records, 33-34 ATS (49.3%) & 46-43 ATS (51.5%) respectively going back to September ‘22. This matches up somewhat with the logic I used in explaining some college successes. When the public goes “against the grain”, they can at least maintain.
System Match: NY GIANTS
NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority HANDLE & number of BETS have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last 1-1/2 seasons, these majority groups are just 42-56 ATS (42.9%) & 42-56 ATS (42.9%) respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, PHILADELPHIA
NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority of the HANDLE has backed the team with less season wins in a 2022 or 2023 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group is 38-29 ATS (60.3%). This is proving to be another situation where going against the grain pays off.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO, NY GIANTS, BUFFALO
DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the HANDLE has been on the UNDER in a NFL game total over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has been quite sharp, 45-29 ATS (60.8%). This number for a “super-majority” in NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for number of BETS has also produced a 35-22 (61.4%) record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CHI-CLE, ATL-CAR, BAL-JAX, PHI-SEA
DK Betting Splits system #11: Quite the opposite of #10, the magic mark for super majority on HANDLE for betting OVER’s was 64% or higher, and this group has performed miserably in ’22 & ‘23 with a record of 55-93 (37.2%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the OVER looks too obvious, it usually loses. On number of BETS, this same super majority percentage produced a slightly improved 59-77 (43.4%) record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): KC-NE, NYG-NO, SF-ARI, WSH-LAR
DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the OVER trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of HANDLE has been on the OVER, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 19-46 (29.2%) over the past 1-1/2 seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the OVER. This is a classic example of where those behind the counter are smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): KC-NE, NYG-NO
