VSiN Analytics NBA Report for Saturday, December 9

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The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on Saturday, December 9, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilize the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until tip-off for best usage.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA nonconference games (East versus West) of 2023, DK majority number of bets groups were highly successful, as they went 134-110 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.4% success rate, they were 3.5% improved on these rarer contests.

System Matches (PLAY): LA LAKERS

 

These last two systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I was able to uncover was when less than 60% of bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of the handle favored that total option, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it as much, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 271 of the games fit this criteria, but the results were astounding, with Under the total on these games going 163-108, good for 60.1%.

System Matches (PLAY UNDER): IND-LAL

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals last season, or those more than 242, majority handle bettors were 18-7 (72%).

System Matches (PLAY UNDER): IND-LAL

 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

NOT APPLICABLE TODAY

 

Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends

The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

NO QUALIFYING TEAM SPECIFIC SITUATION TRENDS TODAY

 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NO QUALIFYING TEAM STRENGTH SYSTEMS TODAY

 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.

UNUSUAL DEFENSIVE PERFORMANCES

NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 98-68 SU and 98-66-2 ATS (59.8%).

System Match: PLAY LA LAKERS (-4 vs IND)

 

BLOWOUT GAMES ARE RED FLAGS

NBA teams that beat a point spread by 30 points or more in any given game have gone just 58-61 SU and 50-64-5 ATS (43.9%) in their next game.

System Match: FADE LA LAKERS (-4 vs IND)

 

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

 

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: INDIANA +4 (+1.9)

 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: INDIANA +4 (+2.5)

 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: IND-LAL UNDER 243.5 (-0.6)

 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: INDIANA +4 (+0.5)

 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: IND-LAL OVER 243.5 (+3.2)

 

Top Daily Head-To-Head Series Trends

Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:

(535) INDIANA vs (536) LA LAKERS

* Underdogs are on an 8-1 ATS surge in the series

System Match: PLAY INDIANA ATS

 

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