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The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on Friday, December 8, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilize the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. In other words, if you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, BOSTON, BROOKLYN, OKLAHOMA CITY, DENVER
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. This group was pretty sharp last season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO, MINNESOTA, CLEVELAND, CHICAGO, SACRAMENTO, DALLAS, LA CLIPPERS
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It’s a touch higher when analyzing the number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 81-55 ATS (59.6%) last season, leaps and bounds above the overall success of all majorities.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, BROOKLYN
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA nonconference games (East versus West) of 2023, DK majority number of bets groups were highly successful, as they went 134-110 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.4% success rate, they were 3.5% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY): CHICAGO
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors took heavy losses on moneyline wagering last season. Here are some more detailed specifics:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle was on double-digit favorites in a 2023 NBA game, this majority group was 92-22 outright but lost -55.45 units, an R.O.I. of -48.6%. This is a significant loss rate and shows how losing just over one of every five games can still be damaging.
System Matches (FADE): ORLANDO ML
Now, for a pair of winning angles for majority handle money line bettors:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group actually produced profits, going 54-82 for +5.5 units and an R.O.I. of 4.0%. This doesn’t seem to be a really significant amount, but when compared to the overall losses of -68.8 units, it represents a significant improvement. Again, it is quite rare though, as there were 771 games in our sample.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GOLDEN STATE ML, SAN ANTONIO ML
This last system involves totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I was able to uncover was when less than 60% of bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of the handle favored that total option, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it as much, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 271 of the games fit this criteria, but the results were astounding, with Under the total on these games going 163-108, good for 60.1%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DET-ORL, TOR-CHA, MIN-MEM, CHI-SAS, LAC-UTA
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
NOT APPLICABLE TODAY
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends
The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* GOLDEN STATE is 19-45 SU & 17-47 ATS on the ROAD in the One Day Rest scenario over the last two seasons
12/8: Fade GOLDEN STATE at Oklahoma City
System Match: FADE GOLDEN STATE (+3 at OKC)
* MEMPHIS is 45-14 SU & 36-22 ATS at HOME in the One Day Rest scenario over the last two seasons
12/8: MEMPHIS vs. Minnesota
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS (+6 vs MIN)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 105-28 SU and 87-46 ATS (65.4%) run.
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON (-7 vs NYK)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 71-46 SU and 68-46-3 ATS (59.6%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY CHICAGO (-2.5 at SAS)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 66-52 (55.9%). In nonconference games, Over the total was 115-85 (57.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 161-108 (59.9%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in DET-ORL (o/u at 228.5),
PLAY OVER in WSH-BKN (*only if BKN becomes a double-digit favorite*)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.
BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES
Teams that scored 134 points or more in any given game have had trouble duplicating that success in their next outing, as they are just 186-189 SU and 156-209-10 ATS (42.7%) in the follow-up contest.
System Match: FADE DALLAS (-8 at POR)
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 231-176 (56.8%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY UNDER in DET-ORL (o/u at 228.5)
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 185-185 SU and 162-197-11 ATS (45.1%) the next game over the last three seasons.
System Match: FADE DALLAS (-8 at POR)
BLOWOUT GAMES ARE RED FLAGS
NBA teams that beat a point spread by 30 points or more in any given game have gone just 57-61 SU and 49-64-5 ATS (43.4%) in their next game.
System Match: FADE DALLAS (-8 at POR)
NBA teams that lose on a point spread by 30 points or more in any given game have rebounded nicely the next game, going 66-47 SU and 68-45 STS (60.2%)
System Match: PLAY UTAH (+7.5 vs LAC)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 7.5% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (124-150 ATS, 45.3%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (179-160 ATS, 52.8%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: PLAY DETROIT (+11.5 at ORL), FADE SAN ANTONIO (+2.5 vs CHI)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 146-187 ATS (43.8%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 18-82 SU and 41-56-3 ATS (42.3%).
System Matches: FADE DETROIT (+11.5 at ORL), FADE SAN ANTONIO (+2.5 vs CHI)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHOENIX +2 (+5.1), 2. SAN ANTONIO +2.5 (+3.8), 3. DETROIT +11.5 (+2.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS -8 (+4.4), 2. LA CLIPPERS -7.5 (+2.7), 3. OKLAHOMA CITY -3 (+2.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT +11.5 (+8.8), 2. HOUSTON +9 (+5.1), 3. NEW YORK +7 (+5.0)
Today’s Top UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -3 (+1.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TOR-CHA OVER 222.5 (+5.0), 2. SAC-PHX OVER 235 (+1.9), 3. CLE-MIA OVER 220 (+1.8)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DAL-POR UNDER 230.5 (-5.7), 2. NYK-BOS UNDER 221 (-2.3), 3. MIN-MEM UNDER 214 (-1.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHOENIX +2 (+5.3), 2. SAN ANTONIO +2.5 (+3.6), 3. DETROIT +11.5 (+2.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS -8 (+6.0), 2. OKLAHOMA CITY -3 (+2.0), 3. MINNESOTA -6 (+1.8)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TOR-CHA OVER 222.5 (+3.6), 2. SAC-PHX OVER 235 (+2.7), 3. LAC-UTA OVER 224 (+1.3)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DAL-POR UNDER 230.5 (-5.9), 2. CLE-MIA UNDER 220 (-2.9), 3. NYK-BOS UNDER 221 (-2.6)
Top Daily Head-To-Head Series Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:
(509) ATLANTA at (510) PHILADELPHIA
* PHILADELPHIA is on a 4-0 ATS streak vs. Atlanta
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS
(519) CHICAGO at (520) SAN ANTONIO
* SAN ANTONIO is 5-1 ATS in the last six hosting Chicago
System Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO ATS
(513) CLEVELAND at (514) MIAMI
* Favorites are on a 12-4 ATS run in the CLE-MIA series
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS
(525) DALLAS at (526) PORTLAND
* Over the total is 13-2 in the DAL-POR series since 2019
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
(507) DETROIT at (508) ORLANDO
* Home teams are 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight of the DET-ORL series
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS
(517) GOLDEN STATE at (518) OKLAHOMA CITY
* The last seven games of the GSW-OKC series went Over the total
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
(521) HOUSTON at (522) DENVER
* HOUSTON is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four vs. Denver
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON ATS
(523) LA CLIPPERS at (524) UTAH
* UTAH is 10-2-1 ATS hosting LA Clippers since 2018
System Match: PLAY UTAH ATS
(515) MINNESOTA at (516) MEMPHIS
* Under the total is 10-3 in the last 13 of the MIN-MEM series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(505) TORONTO at (506) CHARLOTTE
* TORONTO is on a 6-1 ATS run vs. Charlotte
System Match: PLAY TORONTO ATS
(511) WASHINGTON at (512) BROOKLYN
* BROOKLYN is 6-1-2 ATS in the last nine vs. Washington
System Match: PLAY BROOKLYN ATS
