VSiN Analytics NBA Report for Thursday, December 14

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The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on Thursday, December 14, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilize the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:50 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until tip-off for best usage.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. In other words, if you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER, PORTLAND, LA CLIPPERS

 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. This group was pretty sharp last season.

System Matches (PLAY): MINNESOTA

 

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA nonconference games (East versus West) of 2023, DK majority number of bets groups were highly successful, as they went 134-110 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.4% success rate, they were 3.5% improved on these rarer contests.

System Matches (PLAY): DENVER

 

A winning angle for majority handle moneyline bettors:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group actually produced profits, going 54-82 for +5.5 units and an R.O.I. of 4.0%. This doesn’t seem to be a really significant amount, but when compared to the overall losses of -68.8 units, it represents a significant improvement.  Again, it is quite rare though, as there were 771 games in our sample.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML

 

These last two systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I was able to uncover was when less than 60% of bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of the handle favored that total option, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it as much, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 271 of the games fit this criteria, but the results were astounding, with Under the total on these games going 163-108, good for 60.1%.

System Matches (PLAY UNDER): UTA-POR

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals last season, or those more than 242, majority handle bettors were 18-7 (72%).

System Matches (PLAY OVER): OKC-SAC

 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Home teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 60-37 SU and 57-37-3 ATS (60.6%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last three seasons.

12/14: BOSTON vs. Cleveland

System Match: PLAY BOSTON (-9 vs CLE)

 

* Home teams on One Day Rest are 43-28 SU and 42-28-1 ATS (60%) hosting teams playing on a 3rd Game in 8+ Days game over the last three seasons.

12/14: DALLAS vs. Minnesota

System Match: PLAY DALLAS (-1.5 vs MIN)

12/14: LA CLIPPERS vs. Golden State

System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS (-5.5 vs GSW)

12/14: SACRAMENTO vs. Oklahoma City

System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO (-2 vs OKC)

 

* Host teams playing on a H2H b2b were 30-25 SU and 30-24-1 ATS (55.6%) hosting teams playing a One Day Rest game last season.

12/14: MIAMI vs. Chicago

System Match: PLAY MIAMI (-4 vs CHI)

 

* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest are 25-7 SU and 20-11-1 ATS (64.5%) hosting teams playing in an H2A b2b game over the last two seasons.

12/14: UTAH vs. Portland

System Match: PLAY UTAH (+3.5 at POR)

 

* Home teams playing on One Day Rest game are 14-5 SU and ATS (73.7%) hosting teams playing in a 3rd Road in 8+ Days game over the last three seasons.

12/14: DALLAS vs. Minnesota

System Match: PLAY DALLAS (-1.5 vs MIN)

12/14: LA CLIPPERS vs. Golden State

System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS (-5.5 vs GSW)

 

* Under the total was 69-36 (65%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.

12/14: Under the total in LA CLIPPERS-GOLDEN STATE

System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 231)

 

* Over the total was 58-40 (59.2%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on a A2A b2b and the host was playing a 3rd in 4 Days game.

12/14: Over the total in DENVER-BROOKLYN

System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 230)

 

*Under the total was 31-23 (56.6%) last season when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.

12/14: Under the total in CHICAGO-MIAMI

System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 216)

 

* Under the total was 26-17 (60.5%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a 3rd in  8+ Days game.

12/14: Under the total in DALLAS-MINNESOTA

System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 230.5)

12/14: Under the total in LA CLIPPERS-GOLDEN STATE

System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 231)

12/14: Under the total in SACRAMENTO-OKLAHOMA CITY

System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 244.5)

 

Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends

The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* GOLDEN STATE is 19-46 SU and 18-47 ATS on the road in the One Day Rest scenario over the last two seasons

12/14: Fade GOLDEN STATE at LA Clippers

System Match: FADE GOLDEN STATE (+5.5 at LAC)

 

* GOLDEN STATE is 23-8 Over the total in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario over the last two seasons

12/14: Over the total in LA CLIPPERS-GOLDEN STATE

System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 231)

 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details 5 different betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:

In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 72-46 SU and 69-46-3 ATS (60%) surge.

System Matches: PLAY UTAH (+3.5 at POR)

 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:

Double-digit NBA favorites in nonconference games have gone 90-22 SU but just 43-68-1 ATS (38.7%) over the last two seasons.

System Matches: FADE DENVER ATS (only if they become double-digit favorites, -9.5 currently)

 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:

Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 66-54 (55%). In nonconference games, Over the total was 115-85 (57.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 165-109 (60.2%).

System Matches: PLAY OVER in BKN-DEN (only if DEN becomes double-digit favorites, -9.5 currently)

 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.

BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES

Teams that scored 134 points or more in any given game have had trouble duplicating that success in their next outing, as they are just 189-191 SU and 159-211-10 ATS (43%) in the follow-up contest.

System Match: FADE OKLAHOMA CITY (+2 at SAC)

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 167-187 SU and 152-200-2 ATS (43.2%) in the next game.

System Match: FADE MIAMI (-4 vs CHI)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 187-186 SU and 164-198-11 ATS (45.3%) the next game over the last three seasons.

System Match: FADE DALLAS (-1.5 vs MIN)

 

DIVISIONAL ROAD UPSET LOSS CREATES URGENCY

NBA teams that lose as road favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 24-8 SU and 23-9 ATS (71.9%) in that follow-up try.

System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE (+5.5 at LAC)

 

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

 

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. UTAH +3.5 (+2.5), 2. BROOKLYN +9.5 (+2.3), 3. CLEVELAND +9 (+0.3)

 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS -1 (+0.8), 2. SACRAMENTO -2 (+0.4), 3. MIAMI -3.5 (+0.3)

 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN +9.5 (+3.7), 2. CLEVELAND +9 (+1.2), 3. CHICAGO +3.5 (+0.6)

 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS -1 (+1.4), 2. SACRAMENTO -2 (+0.7), 3. PORTLAND -3.5 (+0.3)

 

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. BKN-DEN OVER 230 (+1.1), 2. CLE-BOS OVER 225 (+1.0)

 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. OKC-SAC UNDER 244.5 (-2.9), 2. MIN-DAL UNDER 230.5 (-2.3), 3. UTA-POR UNDER 226 (-1.3)

 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. UTAH +3.5 (+3.5), 2. GOLDEN STATE +5 (+1.2)

 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI -3.5 (+2.0), 2. DALLAS -1 (+1.1), 3. BOSTON -9 (+0.9)

 

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. GSW-LAC OVER 231 (+0.3), 2. BKN-DEN OVER 230 (+0.2)

 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1(tie). OKC-SAC UNDER 244.5 (-4.1) and UTA-POR UNDER 226 (-4.1), 3. CHI-MIA UNDER 217 (-3.4)

 

Top Daily Head-To-Head Series Trends

Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:

(525) BROOKLYN at (526) DENVER

* Favorites are 5-1 ATS in the last six of the BRK-DAL series

System Match: PLAY DENVER ATS

 

(521) CHICAGO at (522) MIAMI

* Under the total is 4-1 in the last five of the CHI-MIA series

System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

 

(519) CLEVELAND at (520) BOSTON

* Underdogs are on a 4-0 ATS run in the CLE-BOS series

System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS

 

(531) GOLDEN STATE at (532) LA CLIPPERS

* Home teams are 7-1 ATS in the last eight of the GSW-LAC series but lost last time

System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS ATS

 

(523) MINNESOTA at (524) DALLAS

* Over the total is 5-1 in the last six of the MIN-DAL series in Dallas

System Match: PLAY OVER the total

 

(527) OKLAHOMA CITY at (528) SACRAMENTO

* SACRAMENTO has won the last five ATS hosting Oklahoma City

System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO ATS

 

(529) UTAH at (530) PORTLAND

* Home teams have won the last three ATS in the UTA-POR series

System Match: PLAY PORTLAND A

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