VSiN Analytics NBA Report for Thursday, December 7

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The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on Thursday, December 7, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilize the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detail the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until tip-off for best usage.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I was able to uncover was when less than 60% of bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of the handle favored that total option, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it as much, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 271 of the games fit this criteria, but the results were astounding, with UNDER the total on these games going 163-108, good for 60.1%.

System Matches (PLAY UNDER): NOP-LAL

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals last season, or those more than 242, majority handle bettors were 18-7 (72%).

System Matches (PLAY OVER): MIL-IND

 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

NOT APPLICABLE TODAY

 

Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends

The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

NO QUALIFYING TEAM SPECIFIC TRENDS TODAY

 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NO QUALIFYING TEAM STRENGTH SYSTEMS TODAY

 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.

BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES

Teams that scored 134 points or more in any given game have had trouble duplicating that success in their next outing, as they are just 186-188 SU and 156-208-10 ATS (42.9%) in the follow-up contest.

System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (-5.5 vs IND)

 

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 166-183 SU and 151-196-2 ATS (43.5%) in the next game.

System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (-5.5 vs IND)

 

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 185-184 SU and 162-196-11 ATS (45.3%) the next game over the last three seasons.

System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (-5.5 vs IND)

 

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details 9 different betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

 

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS +2 (+3.0), 2. INDIANA +5.5 (+1.6)

 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: NONE

 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS +2 (+5.2), 2. INDIANA +5.5 (+2.8)

 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: NONE

 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: IND-MIL OVER 256.5 (+0.5)

 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: NOP-LAL UNDER 230 (-3.3)

 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS +2 (+4.7), 2. INDIANA +5.5 (+3.8)

 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: NONE

 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: IND-MIL OVER 256.5 (+3.1)

 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: NOP-LAL UNDER 230 (-2.8)

 

Top Daily Head-To-Head Series Trends

Here is the top head-to-head series trend in play for one of today’s games:

(501) INDIANA vs (502) MILWAUKEE

* Over the total is 10-2 in the last 12 games of the series, including 6-0 in the last six

System Match: PLAY OVER the total

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