The following is a collection of NBA betting trends featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, January 25, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted NBA betting trends features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:30 PM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2 year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UTAH, PHILADELPHIA, BOSTON, DENVER, MINNESOTA, SACRAMENTO

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the “super” majority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a complete opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, BOSTON, DENVER, MINNESOTA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA nonconference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UTAH, DENVER, MINNESOTA, LA LAKERS

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on the handle for +24.21 units, an R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.s are notable improvements over all other matchups.

System Matches (PLAY): SACRAMENTO

These last four systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): BOS-MIA, DEN-NYK, MIN-BKN

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 56% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in an NBA game total, this majority group has been awful, 11-35 this season (23.9%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY OVER): UTA-WSH

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Match: MIN-BKN matchup has handle favoring Under, but the number of bets favoring OVER

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals this season, or those 240 or higher, majority number of bets groups have gone just 31-53 (36.9%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in UTA-WSH, PLAY UNDER in SAC-GSW

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 22-19 SU and 25-16 ATS (61%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game last season.
1/25: MIAMI vs. Boston
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (+8 vs BOS)

1/25: WASHINGTON vs. Utah
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (+7.5 vs UTA)

* Host teams playing on a H2H b2b were 41-36 SU and 40-36-1 ATS (52.6%) hosting teams playing a One Day Rest game last season.
1/25: WASHINGTON vs. Utah
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (+7.5 vs UTA)

* Over the total was 68-43 (61.3%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road game.
1/25: Over the total in MIAMI-BOSTON
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 223.5)

1/25: Over the total in WASHINGTON-UTAH
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 245.5)

* Under the total was 40-36 (52.6%) last season when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
1/25: Under the total in UTAH-WASHINGTON
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 245.5)

The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* INDIANA is 56-33 Over the total at home in the One Day Rest scenario over the last three seasons
1/25: Over the total in INDIANA-PHILADELPHIA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 239)

* MINNESOTA is 17-4 Over the total on the road in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario over the last two seasons
1/25: Over the total in BROOKLYN-MINNESOTA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 217)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following NBA betting trends detail five betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NO QUALIFYING TEAM STRENGTH SYSTEMS TODAY

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.

BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES

Teams that scored 134 points or more in any given game have had trouble duplicating that success in their next outing, as they are just 215-218 SU and 187-236-10 ATS (44.2%) in the follow-up contest.
System Match: FADE GOLDEN STATE (+2 vs SAC)

NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 249-196 (56%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY UNDER in PHI-IND (o/u at 239)

UNUSUAL DEFENSIVE PERFORMANCES

Alternatively to #5 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 127-44 SU & 96-73-2 ATS (56.8%).
System Match: PLAY UTAH (-7.5 at WSH)

NBA Streak Systems

The following NBA betting trends detail nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 5.6% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (140-160 ATS, 46.7%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (195-178 ATS, 52.3%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: CONSIDER FADING WASHINGTON (+7.5 vs UTA)

NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 52-45 SU and 56-39-3 ATS (58.9%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY WASHINGTON (+7.5 vs UTA)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANA +5 (+2.6), 2. WASHINGTON +7.5 (+2.3), 3. NEW YORK +2 (+2.1)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA LAKERS -4.5 (+1.2), 2. BOSTON -8 (+1.0), 3. MINNESOTA -3.5 (+0.3)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GOLDEN STATE +2 (+3.0), 2. NEW YORK +2 (+1.7), 3. BROOKLYN +3.5 (+1.3)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NONE TODAY

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAC-GSW OVER 242.5 (+0.7), 2. DEN-NYK OVER 222 (+0.2)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOS-MIA UNDER 223.5 (-2.2), 2. UTA-WSH UNDER 245.5 (-1.4), 3. PHI-IND UNDER 239 (-1.2)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GOLDEN STATE +2 (+4.2), 2. WASHINGTON +7.5 (+3.3), 3. INDIANA +5 (+1.4)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA LAKERS -4.5 (+2.0), 2. BOSTON -8 (+0.3)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIN-BKN OVER 217 (+2.8), 2. UTA-WSH OVER 245.5 (+1.4), 3. DEN-NYK OVER 222 (+1.1)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOS-MIA UNDER 223.5 (-2.2), 2(tie). PHI-IND UNDER 239 (-0.8) and CHI-LAL UNDER 228.5 (-0.8)

Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:

(547) BOSTON at (548) MIAMI
* MIAMI is on an 8-2 ATS surge versus Boston
System Match: PLAY MIAMI ATS

(555) CHICAGO at (556) LA LAKERS
* Over the total is 8-1 in the last nine of the CHI-LAL series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(549) DENVER at (550) NEW YORK
* DENVER is 6-2 ATS in the last eight at New York
System Match: PLAY DENVER ATS

(551) MINNESOTA at (552) BROOKLYN
* MINNESOTA has swept the last five ATS at Brooklyn
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS

(545) PHILADELPHIA at (546) INDIANA
* Over the total is 11-2 in the last 13 of the PHI-IND series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(553) SACRAMENTO at (554) GOLDEN STATE
* SACRAMENTO is 12-3 ATS at Golden State since 2o18
System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO ATS

(543) UTAH at (544) WASHINGTON
* Over the total is 6-1-2 ATS in the last nine of the UTA-WAS series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

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