VSiN Analytics NBA Report for Wednesday, December 6

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The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on Wednesday, December 6, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These pages we have built utilize the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detail the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems until tip-off for best usage.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. In other words, if you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA, TORONTO, CHICAGO, DALLAS

 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. This group was pretty sharp last season.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): MEMPHIS, PHILADELPHIA, BROOKLYN, OKLAHOMA CITY, DENVER

 

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA nonconference games (East versus West) of 2023, DK majority number of bets groups were highly successful, as they went 134-110 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.4% success rate, they were 3.5% improved on these rarer contests.

System Matches (PLAY): MEMPHIS

 

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors took heavy losses on moneyline wagering last season. Here are some more detailed specifics:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle was on double-digit favorites in a 2023 NBA game, this majority group was 92-22 outright but lost -55.45 units, an R.O.I. of -48.6%. This is a significant loss rate and shows how losing just over one of every five games can still be damaging.

System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA ML, MINNESOTA ML, DALLAS ML, GOLDEN STATE ML

 

A winning angle for majority handle moneyline bettors:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group actually produced profits, going 54-82 for +5.5 units and an R.O.I. of 4.0%. This doesn’t seem to be a really significant amount, but when compared to the overall losses of -68.8 units, it represents a significant improvement.  Again, it is quite rare though, as there were 771 games in our sample.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO ML, DENVER ML

 

These last two systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I was able to uncover was when less than 60% of bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of the handle favored that total option, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it as much, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 271 of the games fit this criteria, but the results were astounding, with UNDER the total on these games going 163-108, good for 60.1%.

System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): ORL-CLE, CHA-CHI, POR-GSW

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals last season, or those more than 242, majority handle bettors were 18-7 (72%).

System Matches (PLAY OVER): BKN-ATL

 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

NOT APPLICABLE TODAY

 

Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends

The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

NOT APPLICABLE TODAY

 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:

In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 70-46 SU and 67-46-3 ATS (59.3%) surge.

System Matches: PLAY MEMPHIS (-2 at DET)

*PLAY CHARLOTTE (if line closes at +4.5 or smaller)

 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:

NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 55-18 SU and 49-23-1 ATS (68.1%).

System Matches: PLAY MEMPHIS (-2 at DET)

 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:

Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 66-52 (55.9%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 115-85 (57.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 159-106 (60%).

System Matches: PLAY OVER in PHI-WSH (o/u at 240), PLAY OVER in SAS-MIN (o/u at 228.5), PLAY OVER in UTA-DAL (o/u at 230.5), PLAY OVER in POR-GSW (o/u at 226.5)

 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.

BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES

NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 231-175 (56.9%) since 2021.

System Match: PLAY UNDER in UTA-DAL (o/u at 230.5)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 185-183 SU and 162-195-11 ATS (45.4%) the next game over the last three seasons.

System Match: FADE OKLAHOMA CITY (-2 at HOU)

 

UNUSUAL DEFENSIVE PERFORMANCES

Alternatively to #5 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 112-42 SU and 88-64-2 ATS (57.9%).

System Match: PLAY DALLAS (-10 vs UTA)

 

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #1:

When teams on alternate streaks of at least four games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 22-45 SU but 36-31 ATS (53.7%) over the last three seasons.

System Matches: PLAY SAN ANTONIO ATS (+12 at MIN)

 

NBA Streak Betting System #3:

Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 72-13 SU but 34-49-3 ATS (41%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.

System Matches: FADE MINNESOTA ATS (-12 vs SAS)

 

NBA Streak Betting System #5:

There has been a 7.3% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (124-149 ATS, 45.4%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (178-160 ATS, 52.7%) over the last three seasons.

System Matches: FADE DETROIT (+2 vs MEM), PLAY SAN ANTONIO (+12 at MIN)

 

NBA Streak Betting System #8:

Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7-games or more become play against teams in general, going 145-186 ATS (43.8%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 18-81 SU & 40-56-3 ATS (41.7%).

System Matches: FADE DETROIT (+2 vs MEM), FADE SAN ANTONIO (+12 at MIN)

 

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. SAN ANTONIO +12 (+3.2), 2. DETROIT +2 (+1.9), 3. BROOKLYN +4 (+1.5)

 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. GOLDEN STATE -12.5 (+2.5), 2. PHILADELPHIA -10 (+1.3), 3. TORONTO -3.5 (+0.9)

 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT +2 (+4.2), 2. BROOKLYN +4 (+1.2)

 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA -10 (+3.1), 2. MINNESOTA -12 (+2.4), 3. DALLAS -10 (+1.7)

 

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. CHA-CHI OVER 220 (+3.2), 2. UTA-DAL OVER 230.5 (+0.6)

 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. POR-GSW UNDER 226.5 (-4.4), 2. OKC-HOU UNDER 226.5 (-3.4), 3. MEM-DET UNDER 219 (-3.2)

 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. SAN ANTONIO +12 (+3.4), 2. DETROIT +2 (+2.4), 3. HOUSTON +2 (+1.5)

 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. GOLDEN STATE -12.5 (+3.7), 2. CLEVELAND -4 (+2.4), 3. TORONTO -3.5 (+2.2)

 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. UTA-DAL OVER 230.5 (+6.4), 2. CHA-CHI OVER 220 (+4.3), 3. MEM-DET OVER 219 (+3.0)

 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. POR-GSW UNDER 226.5 (-5.4), 2. OKC-HOU UNDER 226.5 (-3.9), 3. BKN-ATL UNDER 243 (-3.8)

 

Top Daily Head-To-Head Series Trends

Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:

(563) ORLANDO at (564) CLEVELAND

* CLEVELAND has won the last four ATS vs. Orlando

System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS

 

(565) MEMPHIS at (566) DETROIT

* MEMPHIS is 7-1 ATS in the last eight at Detroit

System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS ATS

 

(567) PHILADELPHIA at (568) WASHINGTON

* Over the total is 8-3 in the last 11 of the PHI-WAS series

System Match: PLAY OVER the total

 

(569) BROOKLYN at (570) ATLANTA

* Underdogs are on an 11-1 ATS run in the last 12 of the BRK-ATL series

System Match: PLAY BROOKLYN ATS

 

(571) SAN ANTONIO at (572) MINNESOTA

* MINNESOTA is on a 7-3 ATS run hosting San Antonio

System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS

 

(573) MIAMI at (574) TORONTO

* TORONTO is on a 6-1 ATS run vs. Miami

System Match: PLAY TORONTO ATS

 

(575) CHARLOTTE at (576) CHICAGO

* CHICAGO is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 vs. Charlotte

System Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS

 

(577) OKLAHOMA CITY at (578) HOUSTON

* HOUSTON is on a 4-0 ATS streak hosting Oklahoma City

System Match: PLAY HOUSTON ATS

 

(579) UTAH at (580) DALLAS

* Road teams are 6-2 ATS in the last eight of UTA-DAL

System Match: PLAY UTAH ATS

 

(581) PORTLAND at (582) GOLDEN STATE

* Under the total is 4-0 in the last four of the POR-GSW series at Golden State

System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

 

(583) DENVER at (584) LA CLIPPERS

* DENVER is 6-1 ATS in the last seven vs. LA Clippers

System Match: PLAY DENVER ATS