VSiN Analytics NBA Report for Wednesday, October 25

By
VSiN Staff
-
111
 

 

 

Top NBA Resources:

The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Tuesday, October 24, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the Betting Splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:50 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1:  When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. In other words, if you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, LA CLIPPERS

 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. This group was pretty sharp last season.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, ATLANTA, CLEVELAND, MINNESOTA, OKLAHOMA CITY, SACRAMENTO

 

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA nonconference games (East versus West) of 2023, DK majority number of bets groups were highly successful, as they went 134-110 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.4% success rate, they were 3.5% improved on these rarer contests.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, MINNESOTA, OKLAHOMA CITY

 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group produced profits, going 54-82 for +5.5 units and an R.O.I. of 4.0%. This doesn’t seem to be a really significant amount, but when compared to the overall losses of -68.8 units, it represents a significant improvement.  Again, it is quite rare, though, as there were 771 games in our sample.

System Matches: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY

 

These last systems involve totals:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I was able to uncover was when less than 60% of bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it as much, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 271 of the games fit this criteria, but the results were astounding, with Under the total on these games going 163-108, good for 60.1%.

System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): WAS-IND, HOU-ORL, ATL-CHA, DET-MIA, CLE-BKN, OKC-CHI, NOP-MEM, SAC-UTA, DAL-SAS, POR-LAC

 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 58% or more of the number of bets was on the under in an NBA game total, this majority group was quite sharp, 40-19 ATS (67.8%). This number for a “super” majority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.

System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): WAS-IND, ATL-CHA, SAC-UTA, POR-LAC

 

Schedule situations crucial for NBA handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

NO QUALIFYING SCHEDULING SITUATIONS TODAY

 

Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends

The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

NO TEAM-SPECIFIC SCHEDULING SITUATIONS TODAY

 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five different betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NO NBA TEAM STRENGTH SYSTEM PLAYS TODAY

 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.

NO QUALIFYING EXTREME STATS NEXT GAME SYSTEMS TODAY

 

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

 

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

This week’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER +2 (+1.4), 2. NY KNICKS +3.5 (+1.1), 3. UTAH JAZZ +1.5 (+1.0)

 

This week’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI HEAT -9 (+4.2), 2. MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES PICK (+2.1), 3. INDIANA PACERS -5 (+1.8)

 

This week’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. CHARLOTTE HORNETS +3.5 (+2.4), 2. DETROIT PISTONS +9 (+2.1), 3. HOUSTON ROCKETS +4.5 (+2.0)

 

This week’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES -1 (+1.0), 2. LA CLIPPERS -9 (+0.7), 3. MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES PICK (+0.4)

 

This week’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. DET-MIA OVER 219 (+5.5), 2. SAC-UTA OVER 234 (+5.3), 3. POR-LAC OVER 226 (+3.5)

 

This week’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. DAL-SAS UNDER 230.5 (-4.1), 2. ATL-CHA UNDER 235.5 (-2.3), 3. BOS-NYK UNDER 223.5 (-1.9)

 

This week’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. NY KNICKS +3.5 (+1.2), 2. OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER +2 (+1.1), 3. HOUSTON ROCKETS +4.5 (+0.5)

 

This week’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI HEAT -9 (+5.7), 2. MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES PICK (+3.8), 3. LA CLIPPERS -9 (+3.5)

 

This week’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. SAC-UTA OVER 234 (+5.1), 2. POR-LAC OVER 226 (+4.7), 3. HOU-ORL OVER 220.5 (+3.0)

 

This week’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. NOP-MEM UNDER 224.5 (-4.5), 2. CLE-BKN UNDER 220.5 (-4.0), 3. WAS-IND UNDER 233.5 (-2.4)

 

Top Daily Head-to-Head Series Trends

Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:

 

(505) ATLANTA at (506) CHARLOTTE

Underdogs have won the last four ATS in the ATL-CHA series

System Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE ATS

 

(507) WASHINGTON at (508) INDIANA

Indiana is on a 6-1-1 ATS surge when hosting Washington

System Match: PLAY INDIANA ATS

 

(509) BOSTON at (510) NEW YORK

Over the total is 6-2 in L8 of BOS-NYK h2h series

System Match: PLAY OVER the total

 

(511) HOUSTON at (512) ORLANDO

Over the total is 8-2-1 in the last 11 of the HOU-ORL series

System Match: PLAY OVER the total

 

(513) CLEVELAND at (514) BROOKLYN

Over the total is 8-3 in the last 11 of the CLE-BRK series

System Match: PLAY OVER the total

 

(515) DETROIT at (516) MIAMI

Detroit is 6-1 ATS in the last seven versus Miami

System Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS

 

(517) MINNESOTA at (518) TORONTO

Favorites are 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine of the MIN-TOR series

System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS

 

(519) OKLAHOMA CITY at (520) CHICAGO

Underdogs are on a 6-1-1 ATS run in the OKC-CHI series

System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS

 

(521) NEW ORLEANS at (522) MEMPHIS

Favorites have won the last seven ATS in the NO-MEM series

System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS ATS

 

(523) SACRAMENTO at (524) UTAH

Utah is on a 13-3 ATS surge versus Sacramento

System Match: PLAY UTAH ATS

 

(525) DALLAS at (526) SAN ANTONIO

The last six games of the DAL-SAN series went Over the total

System Match: PLAY OVER the total

 

(527) PORTLAND at (528) LA CLIPPERS

LA CLIPPERS are on a 9-3 ATS in the last 12 vs. Portland

System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS ATS

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR