On Wednesday, December 11th, the Houston Rockets host the Golden State Warriors in the quarterfinals of the Emirates NBA Cup. We’re going to dive into all the individual matchups in this exciting tournament. That said, keep reading for odds, picks and player props for this game, and make sure you also check out our live VSiN programming for more analysis. Our talented hosts and analysts will surely spend some time talking about these games. After all, the final three games of this tournament will be played in our backyard, at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Warriors vs. Rockets
When: Wednesday, December 11th at 9:30 pm ET
Where: Toyota Center in Houston, Texas
Channel: TNT
Warriors vs. Rockets Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Tuesday, December 10th. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Rockets -142, Warriors +120
Spread: Rockets -2.5 (-108), Warriors +2.5 (-112)
Total: Over 221 (-112), Under 221 (-108)
Warriors vs. Rockets Analysis
Stephen Curry and Draymond Green have all the big-game experience in the world, so there’s denying those two will be ready to go in this elimination game against the Rockets. Andrew Wiggins was also a big part of the Warriors’ title run in 2021-22. However, how much do we really think that matters in the Emirates NBA Cup? Will Houston really be feeling a world of pressure when the team hosts Golden State? This tournament is undoubtedly important, but it’s not nearly as meaningful as the actual postseason. That said, I’m not sure the Warriors have a big advantage in this game because of their previous postseason success. If anything, I actually believe that the Rockets will want this thing more, as they’re eager to prove they’re one of the best teams in the NBA and this event gives them the platform to prove that.
Houston also has to feel good about how it matches up with Golden State. Only one team in the NBA gives up fewer 3s per game than the Rockets, as opponents are only making 11.8 triples per night against them. This Houston team is loaded with relentless perimeter defenders. Fred VanVleet is questionable for this game, as he’s dealing with a knee injury right now. But if he plays, he will likely get the first crack at defending Curry — although Dillon Brooks might want him. VanVleet isn’t the best athlete in the world, but he’s strong, feisty and has good instincts. He’ll make Curry work if he ends up out there here. And the Rockets have plenty of other options to put on the Warriors flamethrower if VanVleet doesn’t play or just struggles. The most interesting one would be Amen Thompson, who is a world-class perimeter defender and has the length required to contest everything Curry puts up. Sure, Curry will still probably get his. But it won’t be as easy as it is against other teams. And Houston is also excellent defensively throughout the rest of the rotation, meaning no easy buckets for anyone. However, Tari Eason being questionable is worth monitoring. The Rockets can use his wing defense on Wiggins or Jonathan Kuminga. But overall, Houston has what it needs to slow down a good Golden State team. The Rockets just need to execute offensively.
When it comes to the offense, it’s hard not to like Houston to get it going against Golden State. While the Warriors have a defensive rating of 107.6 on the season, the number has been slowly climbing throughout the year. I’m also not sure Houston will be too uncomfortable out there. I know that Golden State just beat Houston without Curry last week, but Houston shot 37.6% from the field and 26.3% from 3 in that one. It’s very unlikely that happens again. And that’s especially true with this being a pretty good matchup for Alperen Sengun. He’s generally undersized at center, but the Warriors have a small starting five. I also don’t love any of Golden State’s perimeter options for Jalen Green, who has been on a bit of a heater lately.
For those that want to use the last meeting between these teams against the Rockets, it’s important to note that the NBA can be weird. Sometimes teams play a lot harder when stars are out of the lineup, and the opponent plays down expecting to win with ease. Also, Houston is 9-3 with a net rating of +10.6 at home, and the Rockets are just 7-5 with a net rating of +3.3 on the road. They’re a different team at the Toyota Center. Meanwhile, the Warriors have a net rating of +5.8 on the road. That’s actually higher than their net rating at home (+3.8), but it’s still way off the Rockets’ number in Houston.
It’s just difficult to imagine a scenario in which a young Rockets team doesn’t treat the rest of this tournament like the NBA Playoffs. There’s a trip to Las Vegas and some money on the line. When you combine that with Houston being tenacious to begin with, this feels like a game the team should win. This is also probably a game in which you shouldn’t be expecting much of a shootout. Our VSiN NBA betting splits show that bettors are looking to the Over, but these are two top-10 defenses. The Under has also hit in five of Golden State’s last six games, and these teams combined to score just 192 points last week. Sure, Curry should raise that number quite a bit. But will he make a 30-point difference?
Warriors vs. Rockets Player Props
Jalen Green Over 27.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-105)
This season, Green is averaging 19.5 points, 4.7 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game. That’s 26.8 combined points, rebounds and assists per game. With that in mind, taking the Over on Green’s points, rebounds and assists total isn’t asking him to do something he doesn’t regularly do. And Green has gone Over this mark in two of his last three games. The one game in which he didn’t was the meeting with the Warriors on December 5th. But Green shot 4 for 16 from the floor and 0 for 4 from 3 in that game. That’s far off his season shooting percentages of 39.9% from the floor and 32.8% from 3. Sure, those are terrible numbers to begin with. But the law of averages suggests he’ll bounce back a bit as a scorer here. And I trust him to chip in a little in the rebound and assist columns with this being a game with actual stakes.
Warriors vs. Rockets Pick
Houston should be more motivated by NBA Cup success than a Golden State team that is still led by two players that have won four NBA titles. And the Rockets are a very good team at home, where their offense rises to the level of their elite defense. If you’re looking to play this thing on its own, I’d suggest laying the 1.5 with Houston or going Under. And Rockets -1.5 is probably my preferred lean. However, head to the Pro Picks page for how I’m personally looking to get down on this one.
Lean: Rockets -1.5 (-120)
