Academy Award Best Picture
Every year I talk to someone who says, “The Oscars are so predictable” or “You already know who’s going to win.” Well, this year is the year for the unexpected. The Academy Awards for the 2024 year won’t be handed out until March 5th, 2025 but now is the time to make your bets for the biggest category — Best Picture.
This is hands down the most predictive award and once you get into award season this is one of the most predictable categories. So just like betting on any player award you get the best value before the season starts and with film festival season over and many of these films getting their wide releases. Now is the time to speculate and start separating the probable contenders and breaking through the festival noise.
A quick outline of important dates you should keep note of going into award movie season. I’ll give you three basic dates to keep an eye out for when betting on the Academy Awards as these act as major line movement days on the calendar.
- Movie Release Dates
- End the Year – Tuesday, December 31st – Films must be released wide before this date
- Academy Award Nominations – Mid January, 2025
These are important dates to keep in mind because you begin to lose value if more people start seeing the movie and start betting into the market. So with that being said much of the betting right now can be speculative, but based off of insider buzz and general knowledge of the voting body, I’ll give you some movies to look out for and some of the bets I’ve already made for the 2025 Academy Awards.
Dune: Part 2 (+650)
This is my personal front-runner. Through 2024, this was one of my favorite movie experiences where I remember saying to myself after seeing it, “Now That was A Movie!” A complete film Directed by Denis Villeneuve using every ounce of filmmaking skill and technology he possesses. He will certainly be a director favorite this year when those odds are made available. This film acts as a coronation of the next wave of movie stars in Timothée Chalamet, Zendaya and Austin Butler.
The two things that might hurt Dune Part 2’s Oscar campaign this year is the fact that it was released early in the year in February 2024 after it was originally planned for a November 2023 release. It doesn’t necessarily mean it can’t win, with the last two years winners coming from films released before October. One other point prognosticators have been making is that it is the second film in a planned trilogy. This will certainly be a focus by filmmakers and stars to try to avoid The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers situation where many say it didn’t win that year because of the looming third film in the trilogy being in the works. This was the favorite for much of the year before festival season and is currently (+600) and something that I already have in my portfolio for this year. Release Date: February (available now on Max)
The Brutalist (+225)
The current favorite is Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist headlined by Academy Award Winner Adrien Brody. This film deals with the Academy’s favorite time period, World War II. Very little is known about this film and as of the time of this article a trailer hasn’t been released online. The film chronicles the life of Holocaust survivor Laszlo Toth (Adrien Brody) and his pursuit of the American dream. Clocking in a runtime of 3.5 hours doesn’t let this limit you from betting on these films. Just because you don’t like a three-hour movie doesn’t mean the voters don’t like it. This is an epic tale, and a good example of three-hour movies winning Best Picture would be Titanic and Lord of the Rings: Return of the King. I’m interested to see where this film goes and if it lives up to the film bro hype, it could be a steamroller during award season.
Release Date: December 20, 2024
Anora (+350)
This film is actually the reason I’m putting out this preview this week. Anora is the first of the award season releases that could move the odds significantly. Its odds have actually moved from 12/1 to +300 now back to +400 due to the release of The Brutalist at the Toronto Film Festival & the New York Film Festival. I’m very excited for Anora. It’s a contemporary drama about an escort who meets a Russian Oligarch’s son and they elope to Las Vegas to get married. It really is one of those how are they gonna pull this movie off film concepts. With a lot of buzz being around the female lead Micky Madison’s performance. This could be a real contender in the actress category and if my hunch is correct a real threat in the Best Picture category.
Release Date: October 18, 2024
Emilia Perez (+600)
In a weird year for movies, film certainly fits the bill. Emilia Pérez is billed as a musical crime comedy with a social issues element. Directed and written by Jacques Audiard, and starring Karla Sofia Gascón and Zoe Saldaña, we follow a cartel leader (Gascón) looking to fake their own death so that she can live as a woman in the United States. Well, I guess I’ll find out what that all means when I see it. It will be the French submission for Best International Film at the Academy Awards which puts it in good position to be nominated for Best Picture and many are praising Gascón’s performance which should make noise in the Best Actress category. The film will be released in the United States through Netflix which has had trouble taking home the big prize.
Limited Theatrical Release: November 1, 2024 – Netflix on November 13th.
Other Movies To Keep an Eye On:
Sing Sing (+550): Headlined by Colman Domingo with members of the theater program at Sing Sing Correctional Facility. Look out for Domingo to snag back-to-back Oscar noms for his performance. Released on: August 2, 2024
Conclave (12/1): A mystery-thriller centered around the election of the new Pope during Conclave. Look for many nominations in the Best Actor and Supporting Actor categories by Ralph Fiennes and Stanley Tucci. Once the market opens I’ll be placing a bet on Ralph Fiennes who seems to be overdue. Release Date: October 25, 2024
Bets Already In Pocket for Best Picture
Dune Part Two (+600)
Anora (+350)
