Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest
Joey Chestnut’s reign of terror in the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest has only been interrupted twice since his first win in 2007. Back in 2015, Matt Stonie pulled off an extreme upset, beating Chestnut by two hot dogs and buns (HDB) by a score of 62-60. The only other time Chestnut failed to win came two years ago when he was serving a suspension.
He came back with a vengeance last year to put down 70.5 HDB and easily win for the 17th time in his professional eating career. But, Chestnut is not alone on the throne, as Miki Sudo is seeking her fifth straight win and 12th overall in the Super Bowl of Gluttony.
Both Sudo and Chestnut are massive favorites per the odds at DraftKings Sportsbook as of July 3, 2:30 p.m. ET, with Sudo -1200 and Chestnut -2500. But, there are “Winner Without” markets for those two, as well as individual prop bets and matchups that we can sink our teeth into for the National Championship of Chomping.
Nothing says celebrating America’s 250th birthday like dunking hot dogs and buns in cups of water and then forcefully shoving them down your gullet. The women’s contest is set for 10:45 a.m. ET and can be seen on ESPN.com, while the men’s competition will be at Noon ET on ESPN.
Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds (DraftKings as of 11:30 a.m. PT, July 3)
- Joey Chestnut -2500
- Patrick Bertoletti +1000
- James Webb +2200
- Geoffrey Esper +3000
- Nick Wehry +4000
- Max Stanford +5000
- Yunho Choi +12000
- Derek Hendrickson +15000
- Gideon Oji +15000
- Radim Dvoracek +15000
- George Chiger +15000
- Cameron Meade +25000
- Jerome Burns +25000
- Crazy Legs Conti +25000
- Tanner Gray +3000
At this time last year, Chestnut was -1800, but most of the other odds on the competitors were quite similar. When Bertoletti won in the absence of Chestnut in 2024, he ate 58 HDB, the lowest winning score since Chestnut’s 54 back in 2010. Last year, Chestnut seemed to prove a point with 70.5 HDB, his highest winning total since 2021 when he broke the world record with 76.
It would take a monumental upset for Chestnut to go down.
Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds Without Chestnut
- Bertoletti -250
- Webb +300
- Esper +400
- Wehry +1200
- Stanford +4000
- Dvoracek +7500
- Oji +7500
- Chiger +9000
- Hendrickson +10000
- Choi +10000
- Conti +12000
- Burns +15000
- Meade +15000
- Gray +15000
Bertoletti did finish second last year with 46.5 HDB, but that was a pretty big drop when he had 58 to win the year that Chestnut was suspended. Webb had 52 that year and then dropped to 45.5 last year.
The weather is going to be a factor again this year with an Extreme Heat Warning in effect for Coney Island, with a high of 100. Bertoletti has shown the highest ceiling and is the rightful favorite in the “winner without” market, but I think Webb is a decent value bet at +300. Esper is now 51 yards old and he finished behind Webb by nearly two full dogs and behind Bertoletti by nearly three full dogs last year.
Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Joey Chestnut Over/Under
Over 70.5 (+130) // Under 70.5 (-175)
It is chalky, much like the antacids all of these competitors will need after the event, but the -175 on Under 70.5 seems like an excellent bet. Chestnut had a point to prove last year and put down 70.5 HDB. In his two previous Hot Dog Contests, he had 62 and 63. Add in the conditions and the fact that he will never break his 76 HDB record, all he really has to do is get into the 60s to win comfortably.
Ironically, what I’m saying is that Chestnut doesn’t have to stuff himself.
Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Miki Sudo Over/Under
Over 38.5 (+110) // Under 38.5 (-140)
This is an interesting number because Sudo’s line last year was 46.5. She set the world record with 51 back in 2024, so you can understand why the line was where it was, but the Under may have been the easiest Major League Eating bet ever, as she only had 33 HDB. When Sudo won in 2023, she had 39.5 and polished off 40 back in 2022.
Sudo turned 40 on July 23 of last year and then had a pretty underwhelming performance. I feel like “40 for 40” is her goal this year and the Over 38.5 is a more attractive bet than the Under.
Other Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Picks
Radim Dvoracek (+110) over Gideon Oji
Dvoracek was ranked 38th in the world by Major League Eating when he put down 30.5 HDB last year in the Hot Dog Contest, a big step up from the 23 that he had in 2024. Oji went down from 36 in 2023 to 33 in 2024 to 31.5 in 2025.
Dvoracek enters ranked 12th this year, so he’s been progressing as an eater and really made a big leap year-over-year, while Oji ate fewer and is ranked lower this year, as he comes in No. 9 in the rankings after coming in as No. 7 last year.
Radim Dvoracek 30+ Hot Dogs (Yes 36¢), Dvoracek 33+ Hot Dogs (Yes 12¢) (Kalshi)
The prediction markets have a few more options than the sportsbooks and I really like this one. Like I said, Dvoracek had 30.5 HDB last year and improved by 7.5 from 2024 to 2025. A similar jump is definitely possible for an improving competitor.
In sportsbook odds, 36 cents is +178 and 12 cents is +733.
