Mexico vs England | 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 16 | Sunday, July 5 | 8 p.m. ET | Estadio Azteca | Mexico City
Mexico (+220) | Draw (+215) | England (+140)
Over 2.5 Goals (+140) | Under 2.5 Goals (-175)
Mexico +0.5 (-170) | England -0.5 (+130)
The Estadio Azteca is hallowed ground for the sport where some of the game’s greatest-ever players showed the world who they were and what was possible on a football pitch. On this very pitch at World Cup 1986, Diego Maradona pulled off the biggest heist in football with his “Hand of God” goal and then picked the ball up in his own half and danced through England’s backline to score one of the greatest goals in the history of the sport. Back in 1970, a Brazil side inspired by Pelé also lifted the World Cup there.
Sunday night, with the sun close to setting as the game kicks off, we will have an electric and deafening atmosphere as El Tri welcomes England into their own backyard for a World Cup knockout game that will be one for the ages.
MEXICO TEAM NEWS
Javier Aguirre has no injury or suspension concerns coming into this game, giving him a full squad to select from. He will stick with the 4-3-3 formation that brushed Ecuador aside 2-0 in the previous round.
Aguirre will be hoping Raúl Jiménez, Julián Quiñones and Roberto Alvarado can continue their fine form. The front three have scored five goals and racked up four assists between them so far.
The back four of Israel Reyes, captain César Montes, Johan Vásquez and Jesús Gallardo have kept four consecutive clean sheets and will need to be at their best to stop an in-form Harry Kane.
Mexico Predicted Lineup 4-3-3
Manager: Javier Aguirre
GK: R. Rangel
RB: J. Sánchez | CB: C. Montes (C) | CB: J. Vásquez | LB: J. Gallardo
CM: G. Mora | CM: E. Lira | CM: L. Romo
RW: R. Alvarado | CF: R. Jiménez | LW: J. Quiñones
ENGLAND TEAM NEWS
England’s right-back worries have been eased by their manager Thomas Tuchel, who said in his pre-match press conference ahead of the DR Congo game that he expects Reece James and Jarell Quansah to be “available very soon” and aiming to feature against Mexico. With Djed Spence struggling against DR Congo, we could see Quansah start, with him being ahead of James on the road to recovery.
It remains to be seen who has nailed down a starting spot in England’s wide areas with Tuchel constantly shuffling between Anthony Gordon, Noni Madueke, Marcus Rashford and Bukayo Saka. All four have looked better coming off the bench, with the highlight being Gordon grabbing two assists against DR Congo. Personally, I’d go with Gordon and Saka, who offer more defensively, and call on Rashford and Madueke in the closing stages.
Harry Kane—five goals—and Jude Bellingham—two goals, one assist—remain the focal point of England’s attack. Declan Rice dropped to right-back for the final minutes against DR Congo and came off due to “terrible pain” stemming from a long-term nerve issue. Expect him to start in central midfield alongside Elliot Anderson.
England Predicted Lineup 4-2-3-1
Manager: Thomas Tuchel
GK: J. Pickford
RB: D. Spence | CB: E. Konsa | CB: M. Guéhi | LB: N. O’Reilly
CM: E. Anderson | CM: D. Rice
MR: B. Saka | AMC: J. Bellingham | ML: A. Gordon
ST: H. Kane (C)
MATCH BREAKDOWN
Before I make my case, let me be clear: I’ve enjoyed watching El Tri for years. I was lucky enough to cover the 2021 Gold Cup final at Allegiant Stadium for a website I previously wrote for. Their supporters are among the best in world football, and this tournament has given us Merlin the duck — the jersey-wearing street duck from Mexico City who’s become an unofficial mascot, met the president, and given us “Viva El Pato.” He’s one of my favorite things to come out of this World Cup, and I regularly drop a sticker of him on messages with friends. But admiration doesn’t win knockout ties, and England have the better hand.
You’re going to hear about Mexico only losing twice in 89 competitive games at the Estadio Azteca across 56 years. Look up the teams they’ve played – Brazil Under-23s twice, St Vincent and the Grenadines, El Salvador seven times, Martinique – it’s about as impressive as the teams Tunisia played in World Cup qualifying for their record of not conceding a goal.
You’re going to hear how intimidating the Azteca can be with 80,000 Mexican fans chanting to create a deafening atmosphere. These are environments and occasions England’s players are used to. Kane has played for Tottenham against Arsenal and for Bayern Munich against Borussia Dortmund. Bellingham has played for Real Madrid against Barcelona and Atlético Madrid. Jordan Pickford has played for Everton against Liverpool. Declan Rice and Bukayo Saka just played for Arsenal against PSG in the UEFA Champions League final. All of these players started against Spain in the Euro 2024 final. They’re built for the biggest stage, and I’d argue they’ll relish this one and perform brilliantly.
You’re going to hear how Mexico haven’t conceded yet. They kicked off against South Africa, who produced one of the poorest attacking performances I’ve ever seen at a World Cup, generating a pathetic 0.07 xG. They rode their luck against South Korea with Edson Álvarez clearing off the line and Raúl Rangel saving Gue-sung Cho’s point-blank header and then plucking the loose ball out of the air. Czechia were poor and lacked quality in the final third all tournament. I struggle to be impressed with their clean sheet against Ecuador, a side who somehow found a way not to score against Curaçao despite having 27 shots, with six of them being big chances totaling 2.84 xG.
You’re going to hear about how poor and lucky England were to get past DR Congo. Yes, they started flat and deserved to go 1-0 down. They also deserved to go in at half-time 2-1 up at a minimum. DR Congo’s goalkeeper Lionel Mpasi Nzau probably had the best 45 minutes of his career, pulling off two ridiculous saves to deny Bellingham and another one deep into injury time to deny Kane on the volley. On another day Marcus Rashford would not have been denied by Aaron Wan-Bissaka’s goal-line clearance. In the end, England’s quality came through, and they did enough to advance, which is what all great sides do.
You’re going to hear about the altitude and how England will struggle. From what I’ve read, this is an unavoidable leveler, with the impact likely to be increased heart rate, shortness of breath, dehydration, and quicker, more intense fatigue. For the first time this tournament, I’m saying thank you for the hydration breaks. These three-minute stoppages will be pivotal for players to get their energy levels back, and they play right into Tuchel’s hands. He’s always been an excellent in-game manager, capable of rapid, decisive tactical adjustments during breaks in play. Both teams get the same breaks, but I trust Tuchel to utilize them better than Aguirre. Fortunately, England has a much stronger bench than Mexico, barring our current right-back issues. Without knowing which players will be affected, or how badly, having an array of quality options available is essential.
So don’t buy the noise. The Azteca is special, but much better defenses than this one have failed to stop Harry Kane & Co.
THE BET
“I’m just coming from this match, and trying to enjoy, but it is maybe one of the most beautiful fixtures, most exciting fixtures [that] you can have,” Tuchel said of England’s match against Mexico. He added: “OK, bring it on. It’s a very beautiful and exciting fixture. There will be lots of obstacles, but this team will be ready whatever it takes.”
I’m with Tuchel here: bring it on. I love how calm and confident he is about this match. He’s not shying away from the occasion or the task in front of him, and I think that mentality will translate to the players. Throughout the tournament, his message to the players has been simple: shed all fear of losing, play with absolute freedom, and maintain the unselfish belief needed to finally win England’s second World Cup star.
When we get down to brass tacks, England’s squad is superior and more experienced than Mexico’s, who are coming into this game with pressure building on their shoulders after beating Ecuador. We’ll see how they handle that.
England’s Moneyline is currently sitting at +140, which is a great price and I highly recommend. If you’re feeling brave, join me on the Alternative Spread with England -1.5 Goals +400, which is a ridiculous price in my eyes.
England was brilliant against Croatia in the second half after Tuchel told the players, “Even if we lose, it will not change my perception of the last 17 days, but let’s do it our way.” On a night like this, I genuinely believe Tuchel can inspire another standout performance and make the tactical tweaks and substitutions needed to record a convincing win against a Mexico side who haven’t really been tested.
Don’t be intimidated to back England here. Quality travels, even to the Azteca.
Pick: Alternative Spread England -1.5 +400
