2025 NFL Draft Thoughts and Best Bets from Mike Somich:

With the NFL Draft two days away, we have finally started to see the rumor mill begin to churn. Before we dive into the news and look at bets I am looking to add to my account, let’s take a big-picture look at the first round.

I have been saying for weeks that this is one of the weakest NFL Drafts in the last 10 years, and the data we are receiving backs that up. You have just one blue-chip player, Penn State edge rusher Abdul Carter; a clear No. 1 quarterback (Miami’s Cam Ward) with a big gap to No. 2; and the remaining top-end prospects are all at non-premium positions like tight end, running back and interior defensive line. Additionally, the top three offensive linemen all have major question marks, and the top wide receiver this year would be WR5 in last year’s draft.

 

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As I write this, every team owns its first-round pick. We haven’t seen one trade. That speaks volumes about the unwillingness of teams to give up future draft capital or later-round picks to aggressively move up. The news came out today that the Giants and Browns are fielding calls for their No. 2 and No. 3 picks. And, sure, why wouldn’t they? If someone is willing to give up a first in next year’s draft, which is significantly deeper than this year’s, you must listen. We already know the Titans took offers for the first overall pick and did not like the return. Similarly, the Patriots and Jaguars have been rumored to be trying to trade out of No. 4 and No. 5, respectively. That is all the top 5 picks looking to trade down. You know what you haven’t heard? Who is looking to trade up? You just do not have the suitors, which could make for a very bland draft night.

So, how does this affect betting? It leaves you with a couple of options on how to play it. You can attack the chalk early with a bet like exact order in the top 5. Currently, the four shortest prices in that market all have the same first four players (Ward, Colorado two-way star Travis Hunter, Carter, LSU offensive tackle Will Campbell), so if the expected outcome happens, you can get a better price on the No. 5 pick.

What I have done is avoid those picks altogether. If something crazy happens early, I do not want to be stuck early and would rather try to predict the second domino in the line at a big price than try to predict where the surprise happens. I also like some back-to-the-first-round props, for which there is seemingly more information available on.

Panthers to select D-Line / Edge with first pick +100

This one is an easy play to get into the account since under both scenarios, chaos or chalk, they will end up with one of three players who will be the best on the board for a defense in need of help. The one concern I have here is if they go Jalon Walker, who is a pass-rushing linebacker from Georgia, we are out of luck, but even with him on the board, I would not be surprised if they select Walker’s teammate, Mykel Williams. In the chaos scenario, they run to the podium to take Michigan defensive tackle Mason Graham.

10th pick – Tyler Warren +370

With it seeming less and less likely that Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty will be on the board, Warren should become a clear favorite to land with the Bears. It’s unlikely the Bears look offensive line, they addressed that in free agency, and wide receiver seems out of the picture, so if it is going to be an offensive player, it’s got a be a tight end. In both the chaos and chalk scenarios, Warren makes it to pick 10 unless someone trades up for him. The Bears to select a tight end is currently +250, running back is the favorite at +210, but again, with Jeanty off the board, that should skew to tight end.

Cowboys to select a WR with first pick -150

I started giving this out two weeks ago at +130, and I have gotten more and more confident about it since. If Arizona wide receiver Tet McMillan is off the board early, in the chaos scenario, the Cowboys can take Texas WR Matthew Golden at No. 12. If we see a chalk scenario, McMillan is likely available at No. 12, and the Cowboys have an easy selection.

Trey Amos to be selected in the first round +130

I’m surprised this is still a plus-money price on the cornerback from Ole Miss. You have quite a few cornerback-needy teams drafting late in Round 1, and in most mock drafts, Amos is late first. I see his floor as the 30th pick to the Buffalo Bills.

Bigger prices I am sprinkling on:

Jets draft a DL/Edge first pick +450 – Are we sure they want to take an offensive lineman with questions this high?

Mason Graham pick No. 6 +800 – If anything crazy happens early, I expect it to be Jeanty off the board, which means Graham, who would be the best player on the board, logically falls here.

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