On Monday, December 22, the Indianapolis Colts host the San Francisco 49ers in the Week 16 Monday Night Football game. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks, and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 16 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch 49ers vs. Colts
When: Monday, December 22 at 8:15 pm ET
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana
Channel: ABC / ESPN
49ers vs. Colts Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Sunday, December 21 Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: 49ers -250, Colts +205
Spread: 49ers -5.5 (-108), Colts +5.5 (-112)
Total: Over 46.5 (+100), Under 46.5 (-120)
49ers vs. Colts Analysis
The 49ers have won-and-covered in four consecutive games. They’re also an impressive 10-4 straight-up and 9-5 against the spread on the season. San Francisco’s rock-solid play throughout the course of the year has made Kyle Shanahan’s team a popular bet this week. The 49ers have received a pretty significant majority of the bets at both DraftKings Sportsbook and Circa Sports. However, at DraftKings, a massive portion of the handle is on San Francisco. That’s not the case at Circa, which is a much sharper book.
The difference here is that sharper bettors are willing to back the 44-year-old Philip Rivers, while casual bettors would rather fade him and make jokes about his age/weight.
If I had to take one of the sides here, I’d be rolling with Indianapolis. San Francisco’s schedule is a big part of the reason this team is 10-4 right now, but diving deeper into things reveals that this 49ers team is rather weak when it comes to defending the run. That means that Jonathan Taylor could get going on the ground. Heading into Week 16, the Colts were fifth in the NFL in Run Block Win Rate (74%). And the left side of this Indianapolis line is tremendous, with Bernhard Raimann and Quenton Nelson making up an elite duo. Taylor should find some success running behind those guys, and Rivers is good enough to avoid mistakes and distribute the football on obvious passing downs.
This is, however, a game in which the Over looks like the best play. I just gave reasons the Colts should be able to move the football — and put points on the board — but the 49ers are capable of doing the same.
Indianapolis started the season looking like one of the best defenses in football, but this has looked more like a middle-of-the-pack group since then. Since the Colts got off to a 7-1 start, they’re 15th in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (-0.005). That’s not awful, but they do have a pretty leaky secondary — as they have a Dropback EPA per play allowed of 0.115 in that span. That’s going to be problematic against a 49ers team that is eighth in the NFL in Dropback EPA per play (0.165) despite having dealt with injuries on offense all year long.
Brock Purdy also happens to be coming into this game after his best performance of the season, throwing for 295 yards with three touchdowns and no picks in a win over the Titans. Even without Ricky Pearsall, you’d have to think Purdy will be able to do some decent work against the Colts.
The Over also happens to be 8-6 in San Francisco games this season, plus it’s 5-3 in the team’s away games. The Over is also 8-5 in the Monday Night Football games that Shanahan has coached with the 49ers. It’s also 8-3 in the 11 games the Colts have played as home underdogs under Shane Steichen.
49ers vs. Colts Player Props
Lean: George Kittle Anytime TD (+122)
I won’t be playing any props in this one, but I’d be looking to Kittle to score a touchdown. With Pearsall out, there’s simply no denying that Kittle is the top option in this passing game. So, with this being a game I expect to be higher in scoring, I naturally believe this can be a strong outing for Kittle. The superstar is actually coming off one of his best games of the year, catching eight passes for 88 yards and a score. He has now been targeted at least nine times in three of the last five games, and he has four touchdowns in that same stretch. Down in the red zone, he’ll be the main target for Purdy.
49ers vs. Colts Pick
While I like the Over on 46 or 46.5 in this game, I was able to grab Over 44.5 at -128 at MGM. That’s a better overall value than playing the higher numbers at -110 or so, which is why I went down a little. However, I’m not sure those two points will matter here. I can see this being a high-scoring game, even with both teams being in the top half of the league in running frequency. I just feel this is a game in which the offenses are the strengths of the two teams competing.
Bet: Over 44.5 (-128)
