Best Super Bowl Prop Bets
We are five days out from Super Bowl 58, and the line has settled at San Francisco in as a 2-point favorite, with the total stuck at 47.5. After some early volatility, I would be surprised if there is much movement moving forward on the side. There should be more public money on Kansas City as the game approaches, but we have already seen resistance when this number dips below two, so expect money to come in on San Francisco if we do see a 1 or 1.5-point spread leading up to the game.
The total touched 47 before some Over money showed up and pushed this back to the current state of 47.5. Traditionally Over money flows in starting on Wednesday or Thursday, so if we do move off of 47.5, this will tick up to 48. I am planning on playing the game under 48 when it shows up again, and I will play it again at 48.5. The pace of play and game plan for both teams should limit the number of possessions which will force both offenses to be flawless for this to fly over.
Let’s add two more props to the list of plays as well!
Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards, o/u 260.5
One of the two most popular players in the game will get a large ticket count and generally, the majority of those tickets will be on the Over. We have seen this number tick up from the mid-250s that it opened up at all the way to 261.5 yesterday before dropping 1 yard.
I’ve talked all week about the style of play of both teams and that largely factors into this handicap. I project a similar game to what we saw in Buffalo in the Divisional round, where there were only 15 possessions in the game. The 49ers have the 31st pace of play in the NFL this year, and while Kansas City is top 10 in the first half, they are bottom 10 in the second. Both teams have seen the opponent struggle against the run heading in this matchup and both offensives will want to establish the run and to set up the pass.
If just 16-18 possessions are dominated by run heavy offenses, it will be tough treading for Mahomes to eclipse the 260.5-yard mark. In the Buffalo game, Mahomes went for 218 yards. While he is 9 for 20 going over this total on the year, he’s 4-2 to the Under since we saw this offense adjust. With the likely game script against Mahomes having a big passing day, let’s play to the Under.
Super Bowl Prop Bet: Mahomes u260.5 Pass Yards
Longest Field Goal Made – KC (-115) / SF (+110) / No FG (+1600)
This is a bet on trust. Kansas City trusts their kicking game, and so do I. They are 33-35 on the year with multiple field goals over 50 yards this season. Butker has been with the team for years in big games, and Reid has shown he is willing to roll the dice with longer field goals.
On the other hand, we just saw Moody miss from 48 in the NFC Conference title game. San Francisco is 21-25 for the season, and I simply don’t trust Moody from 45+ yards.
The 49ers will be more aggressive on fourth down due to their kicking game, and that means fewer chances for San Francisco to be the correct side.
Super Bowl Prop Bet: KC -115