2021. 2018. 2015. 2013. Those are the last seasons in which the four remaining teams won the Super Bowl. Of course a lot has changed for all of them, as the Broncos (2015) won the Super Bowl with Peyton Manning, the Patriots (2018) with Tom Brady, and the Seahawks (2013) with Russell Wilson. The one constant at the most important position on the field is Matthew Stafford, who won The Big Game in his first season with the Rams back in 2021.
Patriots vs. Broncos gets things started on Sunday at 3 p.m. ET in the Mile High City, while the late game is Rams vs. Seahawks at 6:30 p.m. ET up in the Pacific Northwest. Three of the four teams went 14-3 in the regular season, so it is rather fitting to have them in this spot, as both teams with Wild Card Weekend byes defended their home turf to advance to the Conference Championship Round. For one of them, though, it came at a significant cost.
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Here is the Conference Championship NFL Betting Odds Report:
Odds as of Sunday, January 18 at 8:55 p.m. PT
AFC Championship Game: Patriots (-5.5, 40.5) vs. Broncos
Sunday, Jan. 25, 3 p.m. ET (CBS/Paramount+)
There were two players with pass attempts during the regular season for the Broncos. One was Bo Nix. The other was RJ Harvey. Nix is the only player on the Broncos roster to complete a pass this season, but that will change on Sunday when Jarrett Stidham takes the field. Nix was injured in overtime this past weekend against the Bills and his fractured ankle now puts the fate of the season in Stidham’s hands.
Obviously the loss of Nix led to a major adjustment in this game, as the lookahead markets had Denver -1.5 against New England, but the loss of QB1 is always going to impact a line and that is clearly the case here. The other worry alongside the loss of Nix is that the defense gave up 30 points and 449 yards to the Bills. Despite a 1-for-4 showing in the red zone, Denver found a way to win and did so while getting outgained by 100 yards and by 0.7 yards per play. Five Buffalo turnovers played a big role.
Similarly, though, the Patriots had five takeaways, including four CJ Stroud interceptions, and still failed to really put the game away until early in the fourth quarter. New England was held to just 241 yards and 13 first downs, but the five takeaways, including a pick-six, were enough to offset the poor offensive performance in what was a tremendously ugly game to watch.
So, the absence of Nix indeed looms large, but the Broncos would still have an excellent chance to win if the Patriots put up a similar offensive effort. Early action that did hit the board has been fairly tepid, as we did see some line movement towards the Broncos when the line was posted to pull it down to 4.5, but DraftKings bounced back up to 5.5 while the Rams and Bears were in the first quarter.
Unlike what the Patriots had to deal with against Houston, the weather looks good well in advance of this one, with sunny skies and a high of 46 currently in the forecast. The total has mostly settled in at 40.5 as bettors evaluated New England’s lackluster showing against Houston and what the absence of Nix means for Denver.
Per the KillerSports database, this is the first time a team has been a home underdog in the Conference Championship Round since the 2017 season when the Eagles (+3) were a pup to the Vikings and won 38-7. That, too, was a game altered by a QB injury, as Nick Foles had taken over for Carson Wentz beginning in Week 15. The last one prior to that was 49ers at Falcons (+3.5) back in the 2012 season, when San Francisco won 28-24.
Patriots-Broncos Matchup (Coming soon)
NFC Championship Game: Rams vs. Seahawks (-2.5, 47.5)
Sunday, Jan. 25, 6:30 p.m. ET (FOX)
Many will think that the Sam Darnold oblique injury was much ado about nothing, as Seattle obliterated San Francisco 41-6 in the Divisional Round. But, we certainly need to take a deeper look here. For starters, Rashid Shaheed ran the opening kickoff back for a touchdown. Then the 49ers simply couldn’t stop the Seahawks on the ground, as Seattle had 33 carries for 175 yards and three touchdowns.
For his part, Darnold played fine, but the game state allowed him to be babied by OC Klint Kubiak. He was 12-of-17 for just 124 yards and a long of 21. Seattle won in lopsided fashion, but the total yardage was 281-236, as San Francisco lost the turnover battle 3-0 and the Seahawks had scoring drives of 44, 42, 80, 36, 47, and 37 yards. Technically, if we include turnovers on downs, Seattle was +6 for the game.
Has the eye-popping result led to some inflation in the line for this game? Lookahead lines from Fanduel before the blowout win over SF had the Seahawks -1.5 against the Rams and -5.5 against the Bears. Obviously the Seahawks and Rams are very familiar with each other, as this would be their third meeting of the season, not that it helped the 49ers any.
As it turns out, the line is a little bit higher, with -2.5s painted across most of the market with a little bit of extra vig. The Rams needed overtime to topple the Bears, as an incredible fourth down throw from Caleb Williams led to the game-tying extra point and Ben Johnson will probably have many sleepless nights moving forward thinking about whether or not he should have gone for a two-point conversion.
The Rams are 2-0 on the road in the playoffs and despite all the talk about them being a dome team in a warm-weather city and Matthew Stafford out in the cold, they found a way to get it done. Just like they found a way to get it done in Charlotte, even though it wasn’t very pretty against the Panthers.
To that end, though, Seattle’s one postseason data point is a 35-point win and the Rams have two wins by exactly a field goal. Does that, among other things, warrant the bump from -1.5 to -2.5? I’d say so. And now we’ll wait to see if 2.5 works for the books or if the line will have to go to 3.
The first two games were extremely close, with the Seahawks winning 38-37 in overtime in Week 16 on Thursday Night Football with Seattle -1.5 to -2.5 and a total of 42 or 42.5. The Rams won 21-19 in Week 11 with LA -3.5 and a total of 48.5 to 49.5.
The early forecast looks like a usual Seattle day with cloudy skies and lingering showers. This total of 47 or 47.5 did take some early Over money upon open. Now we’ll wait to see what the forecast looks like and whether or not that influences some betting action one way or the other.
Rams-Seahawks Matchup (Coming soon)
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