Analyzing Late-Season NFL Performance:
As an NFL enthusiast, I have always believed that the Thanksgiving holiday marks an important point in the season. Typically, it represents the beginning of the stretch run of every NFL campaign. Most teams usually have about five or six games remaining, and for some, it’s time to make their push to the playoffs, while for others, the goals become focused on next season or spoiling their opponents’ shot at the postseason.
It’s no secret that there are certain franchises or coaches that are able to consistently up their games, and vice versa for those that struggle this time of year. When you think of the league’s top teams over the last decade or so, it’s a good bet that they played some of their best football during the season’s latter games.
I have collected all of the data for the teams and current head coaches in regards to their late-season or Post-Thanksgiving Day (PTD, which includes the Thanksgiving games) histories over the last 10 seasons. I’ve looked at the performance trends from a variety of angles and have come up with some trends and betting systems that should come in handy down the stretch for all bettors.
We all know, of course, though, that what happens from here on out will be influenced by plenty of other factors. For instance, what kind of momentum has that team built in recent weeks? How does the schedule shape up for a particular team? Is a team playing theoretical “playoff games” already just trying to stay alive for the postseason? Finally, what kind of weather will a team endure in its remaining games? As you can see, it’s not quite as cut and dried as simply looking at the turn of a calendar. Keep that in mind as you consider how much weight to give this PTD data when handicapping games the rest of the way.
One key note, these records, trends, and systems only include regular-season games.
Overall Results
The following lists show the overall records of the NFL teams and current head coaches who have logged PTD games. They are both sorted in order of ATS % success:
NFL Team PTD Records Over the last 10 seasons
1. BALTIMORE: 37-23 SU and 39-21 ATS (65%), O-U: 28-32
2. CINCINNATI: 34-27 SU and 38-22 ATS (63%), O-U: 26-32
3. GREEN BAY: 41-19 SU and 35-24 ATS (59%), O-U: 34-25
4. DETROIT: 30-32 SU and 36-25 ATS (59%), O-U: 32-29
5. LOS ANGELES RAMS: 34-27 SU and 35-25 ATS (58%), O-U: 30-31
6. BUFFALO: 40-20 SU and 33-27 ATS (55%), O-U: 29-30
7. KANSAS CITY: 48-12 SU and 31-26 ATS (54%), O-U: 29-31
8. NEW ORLEANS: 33-28 SU and 33-28 ATS (54%), O-U: 23-38
9. SAN FRANCISCO: 33-29 SU and 33-28 ATS (54%), O-U: 35-25
10. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: 31-31 SU and 33-28 ATS (54%), O-U: 25-36
11. TAMPA BAY: 34-27 SU and 31-27 ATS (53%), O-U: 30-31
12. NEW YORK GIANTS: 20-40 SU and 32-28 ATS (53%), O-U: 26-34
13. MIAMI: 31-30 SU and 31-29 ATS (52%), O-U: 33-27
14. WASHINGTON: 26-32 SU and 29-28 ATS (51%), O-U: 27-31
15. LAS VEGAS: 27-34 SU and 30-29 ATS (51%), O-U: 25-35
16. PITTSBURGH: 37-25 SU and 31-30 ATS (51%), O-U: 28-33
17. DALLAS: 37-25 SU and 29-30 ATS (49%), O-U: 30-32
18. NEW ENGLAND: 30-30 SU and 29-30 ATS (49%), O-U: 30-30
19. ARIZONA: 23-36 SU and 28-31 ATS (47%), O-U: 30-28
20. MINNESOTA: 33-28 SU and 27-31 ATS (47%), O-U: 35-25
21. CHICAGO: 24-36 SU and 27-31 ATS (47%), O-U: 29-30
22. DENVER: 25-36 SU and 28-33 ATS (46%), O-U: 28-32
23. SEATTLE: 37-25 SU and 27-33 ATS (45%), O-U: 32-29
24. PHILADELPHIA: 35-26 SU and 26-32 ATS (45%), O-U: 34-27
25. NEW YORK JETS: 22-40 SU and 26-32 ATS (45%), O-U: 29-33
26. CAROLINA: 20-39 SU and 26-32 ATS (45%), O-U: 33-25
27. ATLANTA: 29-32 SU and 27-34 ATS (44%), O-U: 23-37
28. HOUSTON: 26-35 SU and 26-33 ATS (44%), O-U: 24-37
29. JACKSONVILLE: 20-42 SU and 27-35 ATS (44%), O-U: 31-30
30. TENNESSEE: 26-34 SU and 24-35 ATS (41%), O-U: 33-26
31. INDIANAPOLIS: 27-32 SU and 22-36 ATS (38%), O-U: 28-30
32. CLEVELAND: 21-39 SU and 21-37 ATS (36%), O-U: 25-33
NFL Current Head Coaches PTD Records since 2015
1. Jim Harbaugh (LAC): 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS (83%), O-U: 4-2
2. Sean McVay (LAR): 31-18 SU and 32-16 ATS (67%), O-U: 25-24
3. Dave Canales (CAR): 2-4 SU and 4-2 ATS (67%), O-U: 5-1
4. John Harbaugh (BAL): 37-23 SU and 39-21 ATS (65%), O-U: 28-32
5. Matt LaFleur (GB): 28-8 SU and 22-13 ATS (63%), O-U: 21-14
6. Dan Campbell (DET): 19-14 SU and 20-12 ATS (63%), O-U: 18-15
7. Zac Taylor (CIN): 23-14 SU and 22-14 ATS (61%), O-U: 20-16
8. Sean McDermott (BUF): 35-13 SU and 29-19 ATS (60%), O-U: 21-26
9. Jonathan Gannon (ARI): 4-8 SU and 7-5 ATS (58%), O-U: 8-4
10. Kyle Shanahan (SF): 30-20 SU and 28-22 ATS (56%), O-U: 29-19
11. Sean Payton (DEN): 31-23 SU and 30-24 ATS (56%), O-U: 26-27
12. Andy Reid (KC): 48-12 SU and 31-26 ATS (54%), O-U: 29-31
13. Dan Quinn (WAS): 23-11 SU and 18-16 ATS (53%), O-U: 15-18
14. Mike Tomlin (PIT): 37-25 SU and 31-30 ATS (51%), O-U: 28-33
15. DeMeco Ryans (HOU): 7-5 SU and 6-6 ATS (50%), O-U: 4-8
16. Mike McDaniel (MIA): 9-11 SU and 10-10 ATS (50%), O-U: 10-10
17. Mike McCoy (TEN): 3-9 SU and 6-6 ATS (50%), O-U: 3-9
18. Pete Carroll (LV): 33-23 SU and 25-29 ATS (46%), O-U: 28-27
19. Todd Bowles (TB): 22-22 SU and 18-22 ATS (45%), O-U: 24-20
20. Mike Vrabel (NE): 18-19 SU and 15-21 ATS (42%), O-U: 21-16
21. Kevin O’Connell (MIN): 11-8 SU and 7-10 ATS (41%), O-U: 13-6
22. Nick Sirianni (PHI): 16-10 SU and 10-15 ATS (40%), O-U: 14-12
23. Kevin Stefanski (CLE): 14-18 SU and 11-20 ATS (35%), O-U: 14-17
24. Mike Macdonald (SEA): 4-2 SU and 2-4 ATS (33%), O-U: 4-2
25. Shane Steichen (IND): 7-5 SU and 4-8 ATS (33%), O-U: 9-2
26. Raheem Morris (ATL): 3-9 SU and 4-8 ATS (33%), O-U: 5-7
I’m going to limit the basic trend info for this article to the above lists just to give you an idea of which teams/coaches are better than others late in the season. It’s a good place to start any weekly handicapping routine. That said, I’m sure that anyone who reads my analysis on different sports betting subject matters understands by now that I prefer systematic data over trends, as I firmly believe the teams fitting certain criteria each year are more predictable than finding teams that consistently perform at certain levels regardless of their current records, coaches, etc. With that in mind, I’m going to unveil some nice betting systems that I was able to find by digging through the PTD data of the last 10 seasons. We will be continuing to offer these up for the rest of the regular season in our weekly VSiN NFL Analytics Reports.
NFL Post-Thanksgiving Betting Systems
Before digging into the new betting systems, it is somewhat important for you to understand that over the last 10 seasons, home teams have been the superior wager down the stretch, and generally, we see more Unders on totals than Overs. When in doubt, remember those fundamental principles. In fact, these are the records since 2015:
HOME TEAMS: 539-429 SU and 483-464 ATS (51%)
TOTALS: 465 Overs, 491 Unders (51.4%)
NFL PTD Betting System #1 – There have been a couple of sweet recent line range spots in which to bet late regular-season home favorites in action on Thanksgiving and beyond. When they’ve been -1 to -2.5, they’ve gone 54-38 SU and 52-39 ATS (57.1%) since ’15. When they’ve been in the -3.5 to -7 line range, they’ve gone 137-77 SU and 107-66 ATS (61.8%) since New Year’s ‘17.
Qualifying plays for 2025 Week 13: DETROIT (-2.5 vs. Green Bay), BALTIMORE (-7 vs. Cincinnati), PHILADELPHIA (-7 vs. Chicago), INDIANAPOLIS (-4.5 vs. Houston), TAMPA BAY (-2.5 vs. Arizona), MIAMI (-6 vs. New Orleans)
Steve’s thoughts: Obviously, there is some technical randomness to this in that exact 3-point favorites are not included. However, we all know that is a key number in betting pro football, so perhaps it is not random, as in the case of teams laying three points, oddsmakers are typically very apprehensive of moving off that key number, introducing some betting opportunity in the process. If you’re wondering, that group of home favorites has been just a 45.8% cover over the last decade. It also hasn’t been easy for real big home favorites to cover in late-season games. Home underdogs have been a 48.4% ATS winner.
NFL PTD Betting System #2 – On late-season totals, there has been a PTD opportunity in games with the lowest numbers, as those games with posted totals of 40 or less have gone Over at a 78-63 (55.3%) rate since 2015.
Qualifying plays for 2025 Week 13: Over in ATL-NYJ 39.5, Over in SF-CLE 39.5
Steve’s thoughts: This is sort of an “against the grain” wager, so I’m not entirely surprised by the results. I would have to reason that at least one of the teams in these matchups is a struggling offense, and in most cases, public bettors at shops like DraftKings will come pouring in on the Under side of the ledger. It’s hard betting low-total Unders in the NFL, as these are still pro offenses, and in late-season games, weather and other things can produce turnovers and other oddities, leading to enhanced scoring chances. If you’re wondering, the average games in this data sample have produced 40.44 points on games averaging 37.8 totals.
NFL PTD Betting System #3 – There has been a dangerous line range for backing bigger home favorites in the non-Sunday late-season games recently, as home favorites of more than a TD (-7.5 or more) have gone 27-6 SU but just 11-21 ATS (34.4%) since 2015.
Qualifying plays for 2025 Week 13: AGAINST NEW ENGLAND (-7.5 vs. NY Giants)
Steve’s thoughts: I already showed earlier that it’s best to avoid big home favorites in late-season NFL games, but when these big home favorites are playing in the stand-alone national TV type non-Sunday games, you can pretty much rely on going even further and fading them. Big underdogs, even though their seasons probably aren’t going as hoped, can often be motivated by the opportunity to shine in these non-traditional spots.
NFL PTD Betting System #4 – There has been a sweet spot for betting road favorites in the non-Sunday late-season games recently, and that is in the -3 to -9.5 line range, as these PTD chalk options are 36-6 SU and 27-14 ATS (65.9% since 2017).
Qualifying plays for 2025 Week 13: KANSAS CITY (-3.5 at Dallas)
Steve’s thoughts: Late-season road favorites of a field goal or more are usually some of the league’s elite teams, and in a lot of cases, home-field advantage of the weaker opponent and the difficulty of the game that awaits them are overstated. The NFL’s best teams usually become that way by being able to take care of business against lesser teams and by being able to execute just as well on the road. Sometimes it’s best to just not overthink it.
NFL PTD Betting System #5 – NFL PTD teams coming off a game in which they lost by a TD or less as a 7-point or more favorite have bounced back well, going 26-10 SU and 22-14 ATS (61.1%) in the follow-up game since 2015.
Qualifying plays for 2025 Week 13: NONE
Steve’s thoughts: These results shouldn’t come as much of a surprise, as these are typically solid teams that may have lost a heartbreaker or a game in which they suffered unusual failure to execute or mistakes. Expect much better focus and prep for the next outing.
NFL PTD Betting System #6 – Losing to a non-divisional conference foe at home can prove to be a negative momentum builder for NFL PTD teams, especially when hitting the road as an underdog the next week, as these teams have gone just 16-57 SU and 26-47 ATS (35.6%) in the follow-up game since 2015.
Qualifying plays for 2025 Week 13: AGAINST CINCINNATI (+7 at Baltimore), AGAINST LAS VEGAS (+10 at LA Chargers)
Steve’s thoughts: I would say that losing late-season home games probably creates bad momentum for any team, but having to hit the road in unfavorable line circumstances the next week proves tough to overcome. The fact that the loss came against a conference foe may seem random, but 26-47 ATS is hard to ignore.
NFL PTD Betting System #7 – NFL PTD teams coming off close upset losses (<=10-point margin) on the road have gone 51-33 SU and 49-34 ATS (59%) in the follow-up game.
Qualifying plays for ’25 Week 13: PHILADELPHIA (-7 vs. Chicago), BUFFALO (-3.5 at Pittsburgh)
Steve’s thoughts: Close road upset losses are typically good teaching points for coaches, leave bad tastes in the mouths of players and fuel motivation for the next outing.
NFL PTD Betting System #8 – Brutal scoring efforts have propelled NFL PTD teams to good success in the next outing, as teams that scored fewer than six points in a late-season game have bounced back with a 31-26 SU and 37-18 ATS (67.3%) record in the follow-up outing since 2015.
Qualifying plays for 2025 Week 13: NONE
Steve’s thoughts: I would have to guess that oddsmakers shade lines heavily against these low-scoring teams in the next outing, but the fact that they bounce back with an outright record above .500 is impressive in its own right. Who knows what all contributed to the horrific outing in the prior game? It could have been injury situations, weather, an extraordinary defensive opponent, etc. Don’t expect it to continue.
NFL PTD Betting System #9 – NFL PTD teams scoring less than 17 points in a road loss have been big Under teams in the follow-up game, particularly as home underdogs, as they are 63-44 Under the total (58.9%) in this situation dating back to 2015.
Qualifying plays for 2025 Week 13: UNDER 39.5 in ATL-NYJ
Steve’s thoughts: So, these teams failed to score well on the road in the prior game; now, oddsmakers are telling us that the circumstances aren’t great for their next outing, as they are installed as home underdogs, likely to a better team overall, and in all likelihood, a better defensive team. These are the types of situations that call for teams to get into scoring ruts. In these 107 games, the home dogs have averaged just 18.7 PPG, well below league averages.
NFL PTD Betting System #10 – NFL PTD teams allowing 30 points or more in a road loss have been big Under teams in the follow-up game, going 129-90 Under the total (58.9%) in the next game since ’16.
Qualifying plays for 2025 Week 13: UNDER 47.5 in BUF-PIT, UNDER 46.5 in NYG-NE, UNDER 44.5 in ARI-TB
Steve’s thoughts: You have to assume that defensive preparation is a focal point of practice and overall prep for teams that come off road losses in which they gave up a lot of points. Typically, you’ll see oddsmaker and bettor overreaction as well for the next game. These teams give up 22.2 PPG in the follow-up game to the porous defensive effort, so the unit does improve noticeably.
NFL PTD Betting System #11 – There is a dangerous late-season spot for red-hot home teams in NFL PTD games, and that is when they are not favored by a lot (<7 points) or underdog against a divisional rival. These teams have gone just 20-21 SU and 14-25 ATS (35.9%) dating back to 2015.
Qualifying plays for 2025 Week 13: NONE – Baltimore is currently a 7-point favorite against Cincinnati
Steve’s thoughts: Divisional rivalries need to be treated a little differently than other games as there is so much motivation on both sidelines. When the home team is riding at least a three-game winning streak, it gives extra motivation to the visiting rival. As it is, oddsmakers don’t seem to trust the home team all that much, as they are minimal favorites or underdogs despite their recent surge.
NFL PTD Betting System #12 – Another winning streak killer comes in PTD games when teams on winning streaks of four games or more hit the road and aren’t favored by a big amount (>7 points) or are underdogs. These teams have gone 32-42 SU and 27-46 ATS (37%) dating back to 2016.
Qualifying plays for 2025 Week 13: AGAINST DENVER (-6.5 at Washington), AGAINST CHICAGO (+7 at Philadelphia)
Steve’s thoughts: I explained earlier in the article that there is an enhanced home-field advantage in PTD games in the NFL as compared to earlier games. Well, even teams that are red-hot can find the going very tough in late-season road games, and oddsmakers pretty much put the handwriting on the wall for these surging teams, basically demonstrating the potential difficulty of the upcoming task. These last two systems basically indicate to us that surging teams not getting elite line respect are vulnerable.
NFL PTD Betting System #13 – In NFL PTD games since 2010, teams on losing streaks of at least three games outright but boasting good defensive stats (allowing <21.5 PPG) are 24-37 SU but 39-22 ATS (63.9%).
Qualifying plays for 2025 Week 13: NONE
Steve’s thoughts: Good defensive efforts are typically more reliable than offensive consistency, especially for lesser teams. Being able to limit opponents’ offenses gives teams on losing streaks a great shot at being competitive and ending such skids.
NFL PTD Betting System #14 – In NFL PTD games since 2010, teams on winning streaks of at least three games but not good offensively (scoring <22 PPG) have been terrible wagers, going 22-33 SU and 17-38 ATS (30.9%).
Qualifying plays for 2025 Week 13: NONE – Houston was very close, averaging 22.1 PPG
Steve’s thoughts: Just the opposite of #13 above, inconsistent offensive efforts make maintaining winning streaks difficult.
NFL PTD Betting System #15 – Concerning late-season won-lost records, in PTD games where there is only one-win difference between the opponents, and oddsmakers have installed the team with the better record as a favorite of three points or more, that favored team is 71-16 SU and 56-29 ATS (65.9%) since ’17.
Qualifying plays for ’25 Week 13: KANSAS CITY (-3.5 at Dallas), BUFFALO (-3.5 at Pittsburgh)
NFL PTD Betting System #16 – Again on late season won-lost records, in PTD games where there is win advantage of at least four season wins for the home team and they are favored but not by more than seven points, these hosts boast an incredible 39-6 SU and 34-10 ATS (77.3%) record since Christmas ’16, and are currently riding a 14-game SU and ATS winning streak!
Qualifying plays for ’25 Week 13: NONE – New England is currently a -7.5 point favorite versus the NY Giants
Steve’s thoughts: These are good host teams and not overpriced in late-season games. That is very good value combination. Of note, all nine teams that qualified on this angle in 2024 won.
NFL PTD Betting System #17 – Not surprisingly, some of the worst teams to back late in the season are those that can’t score well and are on the road, as teams averaging less than 19 PPG offensively and playing on the road in PTD games have struggled to a 50-144 SU and 75-116 ATS (39.3%) record since 2015.
Qualifying plays for ’25 Week 13: AGAINST NEW ORLEANS (+5.5 at Miami), AGAINST LAS VEGAS (+10 at LA Chargers)
Steve’s thoughts: This system shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone, as these bad offenses are typically the worst teams in the league, and although I have been guilty of it in the past, it’s things like things that will have me avoiding “mutts” in late-season games this time around. As I dug deeper into this particular data set, I couldn’t find any other situations that really stood out, whether it be by date, line range, or any other variable. These teams are just consistently bad. Last year, they combined for a 4-18 SU and 8-14 ATS mark.
NFL PTD Betting System #18 – The truly elite teams have actually been the most unreliable for bettors to back, as teams boasting an 83% or better won-lost record are 61-42 SU but 39-62 ATS (38.6%) in PTD games since ’15, including 13-32 ATS (28.9%) in divisional games.
Qualifying plays for 2025 Week 13: AGAINST NEW ENGLAND (-7.5 vs. NY Giants)
Steve’s thoughts: Oddsmakers tend to apply a lot of pressure to the league’s best teams down the stretch, knowing that bettors are likely to back them at whatever price is set. Be careful with these teams this year, as a lot of times, they are already in good shape playoff-wise, are overpriced and often are facing a team with more motivation.
