I am back from my brief hiatus and ready to go with the NFL Week 7 NFL report. Thank you to my friend and colleague, Vinny Magliulo, for pinch-hitting for me in my absence. He certainly drove in a couple of runs with a very good college football examination. There aren’t a lot of sexy-looking games on the NFL card this week and, surprisingly, the Jets-Broncos game is our game of the week, action-wise, so far at South Point.
Here are this week’s games presented in official Nevada rotation order.
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Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5, 49)
We opened the Cowboys -7 and the public is definitely on Dallas, but now we have gotten some sharp play, some pretty big play, on the Lions %plussign% 7. They also took the money line at %plussign% 260 and now I’m at %plussign% 240. I’m not so sure what the handicap is on this game. Maybe they think Dak Prescott coming back will kind of disrupt the rhythm of what has been a pretty successful season so far for the Cowboys. The total has not seen a lot of play. We opened 48, they bet me Over, and they bet me Over 48.5. I’m at 49 but really keeping up with the market – not a ton of action on the total.
New York Giants at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3, 43)
This is a weird one. If we go strictly power ratings-wise, the Giants should be the favorite, but sharp money is definitely on the Jaguars here. We opened it 3 and haven’t moved it, but I can see that the sharper money is on the Jags. Sometimes the price can tell you the winner. The Giants have to be one of the worst 5-1 teams of all time, but I’m not so sure how good Jacksonville is either. The public is all over New York. Probably a 5-to-1 ticket ratio on the Giants. We opened the total 42.5 and we’re up to 43 on just one bet.
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-2.5, 42)
This is another one we haven’t moved. We opened it Titans -2.5. The ticket count is high on Tennessee but not a lot of sharp play on the Colts. We do have some play on the money line, they took %plussign% 130 and I’m down to %plussign% 120. This one is kind of hard to gauge. I’m not seeing any 3’s right now, but I do believe the wise guys will jump in and take the 3 if it gets there. We opened the total at 42.5, they bet me Over 42.5, they bet me Over 43. Then they bet me Under 43.5 and Under 43, so we’re now at 42.
Atlanta Falcons at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5, 47.5)
We opened the Bengals -6. Sharps laid the 6, so we’re at 6.5 now and writing pretty even business at 6.5. No movement on the money line or the total. I do think this side will probably get to 7 and the wise guys will probably take it if and when it gets there.
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5, 46)
Similar on this one. We opened 6, they laid it, and I’m at 6.5. Now they are taking it back, definitely some sharp money on the Browns %plussign% 6.5. I think this one is going to go back to 6. We opened the total 46 and haven’t budged.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-13, 39.5) at Carolina Panthers
This one got interesting on Thursday night. We opened the game 10. They laid me the 10 and I went straight to 11. They laid 11 and I went to 11.5. This is where we were when the Christian McCaffrey news went down on Thursday and we went to 12. With only a little bit of action, we went to 13. We moved it pretty quickly. We had the total at 40.5 and they bet us Under, so we’re at 39.5 now. I moved it a full point. The biggest bet on the Under, however, did come in before the McCaffrey news.
Green Bay Packers (-5, 41.5) at Washington Commanders
We opened this 5.5 and a sharp guy came in and bet me on the %plussign% 5.5. I see the game now at 4.5 and 5 in the market. We do have plenty of smaller, public money on the Packers, but the bigger sharp money is on the dog, even at 5. No movement on the total.
New York Jets at Denver Broncos (-1, 37)
I mentioned this at the top. Another interesting game of which we are all over the place. We opened the game 3 before the Monday night game and we wound up reopening at 3 the next morning. They took the %plussign% 3, they took 2.5, they took 2, and they even took the 1.5. They walked us all the way down and they even took a little bit of play at %plussign% 1. So we went to pick-’em and we got some sharp play on the Broncos at pick and we even have some pretty sharp money at -1. They also came in on the money line, very strong sharp money on the Jets %plussign% 105 and at even money. We are now at Broncos -115 and Jets -105. Lotta action on this total, too. Before the Monday night game, we opened 42.5 and didn’t have any business. We reopened the game on Tuesday morning with the total at 40. They bet me Under 40, Under 39.5, Under 38.5, and now they bet me Under 38. I moved it a full point on this last bet, so I’m at 37. Like I said earlier, game of the week so far action-wise.
Houston Texans at Las Vegas Raiders (-7, 45.5)
We opened 7 and we haven’t moved it. The public is all over the Raiders. Raiders tight end Darren Waller is out. I was surprised that the wise guys didn’t come in and take it. I think they might be waiting, but not too much going on here and same with the total, which I opened 45.5 and haven’t budged.
Kansas City Chiefs (-2, 49) at San Francisco 49ers
Now here’s a great game. It’s amazing the Jets-Broncos is out-writing this game. We opened Chiefs -3, they took the %plussign% 3, took 2.5, so we’re down to 2 now. Plenty of action on this game, but the sharp money is definitely on the dog. I see the game down as low as 1, but I’m not ready to go below 2 just yet. I still have plenty of Chiefs money, but this game is headed down. We opened the total 48, they bet me Over and we’re at 49. It wasn’t a big play, but I went with the market. One more note here on the side: Kansas City is going from being a home underdog last week to road favorite this week. I don’t know exactly what the number is, but over 60% of the time, I believe that team is a successful bet-against.
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Chargers (-5, 50)
We opened this 7 before the Monday night game. We didn’t have any business at the 7. The next morning we reopened it Chargers -6. They took the 6, took 5.5, so we’re at 5. The total opened 52.5 before the Monday night game and we really didn’t have any business. We reopened at 51, they bet me Under and I’m now at 50.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins (-7.5, 45.5)
We opened the game 6.5, they laid me the 6.5, and on Friday they laid me the 7 for a limit bet, so we are at 7.5 strictly on business. I was kind of surprised, but both public and sharp money is on the Dolphins. No movement on the total.
Chicago Bears at New England Patriots (-8, 39.5)
This is another one that we haven’t moved. We’ve definitely taken some sharp money on the %plussign% 8. The public is on the favorite. About a 4-to-1 ticket ratio on New England, but the market is a solid 8. I think that is a good number and I don’t want to go lower yet. We opened the total 39.5 and haven’t budged.
Chris Andrews is the Sportsbook Director at South Point Hotel in Las Vegas, a member of the Sports Betting Hall of Fame, and has been a Nevada bookmaker for over 40 years.
