Average Joe Contest
Picks are locked in for Week 10 of the Edge Boost/Average Joe Contest here at VSiN. Apologies for the inconsistency with this article, as I was out of town for a Sunday wedding (YES, IN THE FALL) and a family health situation, but I’m back at it for Week 10.
With over 18,000 selections submitted again this week, we can get a pretty good idea of what the most popular public plays are. This contest includes both NFL and college football picks and has an 11 a.m. ET deadline on Saturday. That means I have time to write up the top NFL selections if you want to ride along with the “public” Average Joes or go against them.
Those who have an Edge Boost account funded with $100 or more are eligible to win $1,000 if they have the best score of the week. Sign up with the promo code VSiN to get started with Edge Boost. If you just want to play for fun, you can do that as well, as this contest does not have an entry fee.
We use lines from Circa Sports as of 1 p.m. ET on Fridays and all contestants pick from those numbers. You can read more about the contest rules here.
Keep in mind that you can still be eligible for prizes, even if you didn’t sign up in time for Week 10. You can do that here.
NFL Picks Week 10
Let’s look at the most popular spreads for NFL Week 10. These are the most popular games by consensus, so they may not be the most-picked sides by volume, but have the highest percentage of the spread picks on that particular game.
Getting a survey of what “Average Joes” are thinking on the NFL is always intriguing. Of course, you can also do that with our DraftKings NFL Betting Splits and Circa NFL Betting Splits, but we’re here to look at what contest players are thinking.
Here are the most popular ATS Picks for Week 10:
Lions -2.5 (89%) vs. Patriots
The “Fade Drake Maye against good teams” angle is alive and well, even in other countries. This is the early game in Munich on Sunday and the quirkiness of an international game wasn’t enough to keep Joes from taking the Lions. Personally, I would say that the Patriots not really touching +3 given the strength of that narrative (or trend, if you will) is a concerning sign for those backing the Motor City Kitties.
But, we shall see, as the Patriots were pummeled by a Packers team that the Lions have already beaten and we’re all in clear agreement that the NFC North is the best division in the league this season.
Of the 719 picks on the spread, 641 are on the Lions.
Seahawks -6.5 (87%) at Raiders
It’s all chalk with the top three picks this week, which is hardly surprising, and this is the biggest of those favorites. It seems that the Joes don’t believe in Fernando Mendoza, as he’ll make his first NFL start against the reigning Super Bowl champs. Sam Darnold is out again for Seattle, but Drew Lock took care of the ball and wasn’t sacked against the Cardinals.
In concert with the Drake Maye/good teams narrative, the Raiders are forming one of their own. They are 4-5 with wins over the Dolphins, Chargers, Saints, and Jets, who own a combined record of 6-27. The losses are to the Chiefs, Patriots, Bills, Rams, and 49ers, who own a combined record of 33-12. And nobody expected the Rams to be 5-4 right now.
Of the 426 picks on this spread, 372 are on the Seahawks.
Packers -2.5 (85%) vs. Vikings
How much of a difference will Kirk Cousins make for Minnesota? We saw about a three-point line move when he was acquired to take over for Carson Wentz in this week’s clash against the Packers. Minnesota’s offense has been objectively terrible, so closing the gap between the league’s most potent defense and one of its most impotent offenses should go a long way.
That said, while there are reasons for optimism, the Packers shined last week in a big spot against New England and nobody can stop Matthew Golden and Christian Watson right now. A good offense is more appealing than a good defense for recreational wagerers and that’s the case for the Joes here, though I will grant that Green Bay’s defense is getting a lot better as the season goes along.
Of the 661 picks on the spread, 560 are on the Packers.
Here are the three most popular totals of Week 10:
Similarly, I’ll also be looking at the top totals each Saturday morning with a little bit of context mixed in.
Chiefs/Falcons Over 47.5 (88%)
It would seem that the Joes participating in this contest are not concerned with what looked to be a gruesome injury suffered by Patrick Mahomes last week against the Jets. Ultimately, Mahomes came back into the game and looked no worse for the wear, but you wonder after the adrenaline and Toradol wore off how he was feeling.
In any event, points are expected on the fast track at Mercedes-Benz Stadium here, hardly a surprise given that we always see Overs get more love than Unders in this contest.
Of the 224 picks on this total, 197 are on the Over.
Panthers/Saints Over 49 (86%)
See? I almost get worried for Under bettors if we see the expectation of a low-scoring game in this contest. The Joes are looking at a Panthers team that has given up points in bunches and a Saints team that has the ability to score a little and think we’ll get into the 50s. Carolina has had a million injuries in the secondary, which is a lot to overcome in today’s NFL.
Interestingly, though, the Panthers +2.5 is actually one of the more popular spread plays. I realize that there’s a correlation between a high-scoring game and a higher win probability for Carolina because of how the season has gone, but that one caught me a tad off-guard. Perhaps it’s the age-old “fade the team off of an overtime game” angle, as the Saints played nearly an entire fifth quarter against the Browns last week.
Of the 86 picks on this total, 74 are on the Over.
Patriots/Lions Over 49.5 (85%)
I’m genuinely shocked this wasn’t the most popular total. Any time you have a wave of support for the Lions, you see a correlated wave of support for the Over. There’s this belief that the Lions cannot win in a low-scoring game, so if the environment supports points, then it’s the right type of game for Detroit.
I guess we’ll see, as the Patriots aren’t what they were on defense last season with the tougher schedule, but they’ve still only allowed 23 PPG and the Lions have allowed 23.6. Given that the Lions have played three consecutive games well Under this total since the bye week, could this be a misguided opinion?
Of the 159 picks on this total, 135 are on the Over.
See all of the pick counts, including college football, on the Average Joe Contest Betting Splits page.
