We’re in for a treat with the Week 10 Sunday Night Football matchup, as the red-hot Cincinnati Bengals host the Pittsburgh Steelers for some important AFC North action. Keep reading for betting odds, picks, and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 10 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Our experts have a bunch of different way to bet Steelers-Bengals on the Pro Picks page!
How To Watch Steelers vs. Bengals
When: Sunday, November 15 at 8:20 pm ET
Where: Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio
Channel: NBC
Steelers vs. Bengals Odds
Odds from Circa Sports accurate as of Saturday, November 14. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Bengals -185, Steelers +160
Spread: Bengals -3.5 (-105), Steelers +3.5 (-115)
Total: Over 49 (-110), Under 49 (-110)
Steelers vs. Bengals Analysis
The information on our betting splits pages is pretty interesting. Cincinnati is a popular side in bets and handle at Circa Sports, but Pittsburgh is stuck at +3.5. That likely means sharp bettors like the idea of grabbing the Steelers to keep this within three points. We have, however, seen the total move from 47.5 on November 8 to 49 as of noon on November 14. Might we see a bit of a shootout?
The case for a high-scoring game has a lot to do with the way Cincinnati plays. The Bengals, led by a sizzling Joe Burrow passing game, are second in the NFL in EPA/play (0.146) and dropback EPA/play (0.265). Meanwhile, they’re just 15th in EPA/play allowed (0.005). Cincinnati can move the ball at will, but it can’t quite stop opponents from doing the same.
Pittsburgh is a bit of the opposite. This season, the Steelers are sixth in EPA/play allowed (-0.068) but just 18th in EPA/play (-0.068). In an ideal world, Mike McCarthy would like to turn this into a slugfest. It’s just hard to imagine that happening.
Cincinnati has gone Over in three of its last four games, and the only Under saw the Bengals and Falcons combine for 51 points in Spain last week. The Over is also 18-9 when Cincinnati plays at home as a favorite of 7 or fewer points under Zac Taylor. On top of that, it’s 10-5 under Taylor when the Bengals face a team they lost to earlier in the season.
It isn’t hard to see this turning into a game in which Burrow and Aaron Rodgers go drive for drive, especially if you think Pittsburgh’s defense is a little overrated. I certainly do. That’s ultimately why I’m looking at the total.
If you’re strictly thinking spread, things get murkier. Personally, it’s hard for me to see the Steelers offense holding up in a high-scoring game. They’ll have success moving the ball against this Bengals defense, but a few drives ending in field goals could do them in. The Bengals come in having scored at least 31 points in four consecutive games. Still, the way the splits look makes me feel better about the total than the side.
Steelers vs. Bengals Player Props
LEAN: Rodgers Over 1.5 Touchdowns (-103)
You can find serious player prop inspiration on our OptaAI player prop pages, where we have hundreds of projections available to subscribers for the Week 10 slate. If I had to play a prop in this game, though, I’d go with Rodgers to throw at least two touchdowns. He hasn’t had multiple touchdown passes since October 18, but he does have four multi-touchdown games this season. He’s still capable of making every throw in the book, and there’s a good chance he’ll need to hang in there and fire to keep up with Burrow.
Rodgers threw for three scores against Cincinnati on September 27. He also had a four-touchdown game against the Bengals last season.
Steelers vs. Bengals Pick
While I lean Cincinnati, the Over is my play. The Bengals have scored at least 31 points in four straight games, and the Steelers have put up at least 27 in three of their last six. They should be able to put a nice dent in this total, paving the way for the Bengals to do the rest.
Bet: Over 49 (-115)
