Average Joe Contest
Picks are locked in for Week 2 of the Edge Boost/Average Joe Contest here at VSiN. Over the first two weeks of the contest, we have seen more than 50,000 picks submitted. This contest includes both NFL and college football picks and has an 11 a.m. ET deadline on Saturday. So, while I don’t have the lead time to look at the top college football picks before the games get going, I can look at the NFL consensus picks so that you can decide if you want to ride along with the “public” Average Joes or go against them.
Those who have an Edge Boost account funded with $100 or more are eligible to win $1,000 if they have the best score of the week. Sign up with the promo code VSiN to get started with Edge Boost. If you just want to play for fun, you can do that as well, as this contest does not have an entry fee.
We use lines from Circa Sports as of 1 p.m. ET on Fridays and all contestants pick from those numbers. You can read more about the contest rules here.
Keep in mind that you can still be eligible for prizes, even if you didn’t sign up in time for Week 2. You can do that here.
NFL Picks Week 2
Let’s look at the most popular spreads for NFL Week 2. These are the most popular games by consensus, so they may not be the most-picked sides by volume, but have the highest percentage of the spread picks on that particular game.
Getting a survey of what “Average Joes” are thinking on the NFL is always intriguing. Of course, you can also do that with our DraftKings NFL Betting Splits and Circa NFL Betting Splits, but we’re here to look at what contest players are thinking.
Here are the most popular ATS Picks for Week 2:
Eagles -7 (92%) vs. Titans
It would seem that losing to the Jets doesn’t garner much support in the court of public opinion. Even though the Eagles had all sorts of issues with the Commanders, the Joes were unconcerned with laying a touchdown in the Music City. With how bad Cam Ward and the Tennessee offense looked in Robert Saleh’s second kick at the head coaching can, it is hardly surprising to see this pick make the cut as one of the most popular, though this percentage is a bit staggering.
Of the 654 picks on the spread in this game, 600 are on the Eagles, who were the second-ranked consensus team last week when they failed to cover.
Buccaneers -8.5 (87%) vs. Browns
Another team that had a terrible Week 1 showing is getting picked on again. It should be mentioned that six of the seven most popular picks this week are favorites and three of the top four are -7 or higher, with the 49ers as the fourth consensus pick at 78%. Back to this game, though, as Baker Mayfield looks to exact revenge against his former team. More importantly, he’s looking to bounce back from a turnover-plagued effort against the Bengals, a game that the Bucs only lost by six despite four lost fumbles. As for the Browns, well, LOL.
Of the 524 picks on the spread in this game, 456 are on the Bucs.
Broncos -2.5 (81%) vs. Jaguars
Call it hive mind, call it groupthink, call it whatever you want, but the most popular picks of the week are usually pretty predictable. This one was not on my bingo card. Typically, public players find numerous faults with teams who stink up the joint in the premier, primetime games. The Broncos did that by getting pushed around by the Chiefs in a game that did not inspire confidence in Denver’s ability to repeat as AFC West champs. But, all the Jags did was beat the lowly Browns and so the jury of Average Joes is still out on them.
Of the 913 picks on the spread in this game, 738 are on the Broncos.
Here are the three most popular totals of Week 2:
Similarly, I’ll also be looking at the top totals each Saturday morning with a little bit of context mixed in.
Commanders/Cowboys Over 50.5 (92%)
While the Broncos as a top spread selection was unexpected, the Cowboys as the top Over team was not. This was a trend that we saw a ton in last season’s contest and we see it again here. Dallas was not among the top three last week, but that probably had to do with some uncertainty in John Harbaugh’s debut for the Giants. Here, with two known commodities, this is the most lopsided total of the week.
Of the 203 picks on the total in this game, 187 are on the Over.
Saints/Ravens Over 46.5 (89%)
Here’s another one that was easy to project. The Ravens nearly scored this many points themselves against the Colts in Week 1 and the Saints played to a total of 61 points against the Lions, though there were 13 points in overtime to help the cause. Tyler Shough threw 56 times in that game. What’s interesting here is the correlation that the Saints were the most popular underdog with 77% of the spread picks at +8.5. Based on what we saw last week, if the Saints are going to cover, a higher-scoring game benefits them.
Of the 148 picks on the total in this game, 131 are on the Over.
Panthers/Falcons Over 43.5 (88%)
All is right in the Average Joe world – three favorites and three Overs in the consensus. Last week, we saw three Unders, a phenomenon that I don’t believe happened last season. Two of the three picks went Under, but that wasn’t enough for Joes to root against points this week. I guess it’s only fair when one of these two teams was involved in a game that saw 96 points scored. Ironically, picking against Cooper Rush was extremely popular last week, as the Steelers were the top ATS target. This week, the Joes are rooting for him to put up some points.
Of the 109 picks on the total in this game, 96 are on the Over.
See all of the pick counts, including college football, on the Average Joe Contest Betting Splits page.
