NFL Survivor
It seems like there’s always one. In Week 1, it was the Chargers, who whacked over 30% of the Circa Survivor field and over 36% of the Circa Grandissimo field. We’re down to just 49 entries in that high-stakes, $100,000 Survivor contest. None of the other six teams selected – Jaguars, Lions, Steelers, Eagles, Seahawks, Bengals – lost. In the $1,000 Circa Survivor, 31 of the league’s 32 teams were selected. Nobody took the Commanders.
But, there were 7,585 entries on the Chargers. The next highest eliminator was the Titans with 213. In total, the field dropped from 25,017 to 16,978. The Jaguars were the most popular pick with 8,127 entries and that game was never a sweat. Sweat-free winners won’t be the norm in this thing, but Jacksonville was one of them, a dramatic contrast from the Chargers, who were never really a sweat to win at any point, as they never had a lead.
For those who were able to survive and advance, that’s the first of many 1-0 weeks that will be required to cash. For those in Circa Survivor or a similar style contest, it will probably take 20 separate 1-0 weeks because of the Thanksgiving and Christmas “holiday” weeks. For those in regular Survivor, it depends on the size of your pool. If there are more Chargers-esque upsets early, it may not take all 18 weeks to declare the winner(s).
For Week 2, the strategy remains the same – go 1-0 while keeping 20-0 in mind. I was surprised to see about 8% of the Circa Survivor population take the Lions given that they are a holiday team and it’s best to hold on to those to have as many options as possible with the shorter lists of teams. That said, as it turns out, 7,585 entries took the Chargers over the Jaguars, Steelers, and Raiders among non-holiday teams and now availability for Thanksgiving and Christmas doesn’t matter at all.
Like I’ve said a million times already, this concept is so simple. Pick a winner. Yet so complex. Once you use ‘em, you lose ‘em and it’s hard to find 18 or 20 of the 32 teams in a spot worth trusting them. But, that’s the objective this week and every week.
Once again, we’ll be using the Survivor tools from PoolGenius to plot out a course for the season and evaluate the pool picks each week.
Week 2 NFL Survivor Teams to Consider
49ers (-13) over Dolphins
Dating back to 1989, there have been 55 favorites of -10 or more in Week 2 according to the KillerSports database. Those teams are 49-6 (89.1%) and have won 16 in a row. The last loss was the Patriots to the Cardinals laying -13.5 at home in Week 2 of the 2012 season. The Ravens pummeled the Browns 41-17 last season in the first game to fit this criteria since 2022, when there were four games with 10+ point favorites.
This is going to be a very, very popular pick this week. Whether you had the Jaguars, Steelers, or Raiders, you surely took notice of what happened with the Chargers and breathed a heavy sigh of relief that it wasn’t you. San Francisco isn’t a holiday team and the Dolphins mustered only 13 first downs against the Raiders, whereas the 49ers won by 20 against the preseason Super Bowl favorite.
This is about as “safe” of a Survivor pick as you are going to see and many will go that route as a result. The Niners are the overwhelming favorite by win probability at PoolGenius at 85% this week. However, they are also 66% or better per PG in five of the next six games. There are more chances to take San Fran. There are fewer chances to take some of the other options.
Chargers (-6.5) over Raiders
It can’t happen two weeks in a row, right? A lot of people will be expecting the Chargers to bounce back in another big favorite role. The Raiders beat the Dolphins last week, but had just 4.3 yards per play. Kirk Cousins still threw two interceptions.
It is tough to know exactly why the Chargers laid such a dinosaur-sized egg. A plus-territory fumble followed by a turnover on downs at the 3-yard-line represented two pretty big swings in the game. The blocked punt doesn’t really count as a turnover, but it might as well. I won’t sit here and pretend that the Chargers played well or that they deserved a better fate, but there were some circumstances that may not be repeated this week or in any week going forward.
I can understand being gunshy about the Chargers. But, remember, you have to take 18/32 or 20/32 teams. At 72% per PoolGenius, that is currently tied for their highest win probability of the remaining games, with the Jets at home in Week 11 as the other.
Ravens (-8.5) over Saints
It amazes me that the Ravens are not one of the holiday teams. They’ve been so good for so long and the league wants to try to put exciting games on those dates. But, for whatever reason, the Ravens weren’t selected, so we have free reign to take them whenever the best opportunity presents itself. Personally, I do not believe this week is the best opportunity, but I can’t hold it against anybody who does.
The Saints are good, but the Saints are not great. The close loss to the Lions may give contestants some pause when it comes to Baltimore this week. I totally get that and they at least have enough players on both sides of the ball to be dangerous. That said, the Ravens were nearly flawless against the Colts last week. They had 7.9 yards per play, more than doubled the Colts in yardage, were +3.2 in YPP, and Lamar Jackson seemed to have more spring in his step with first-year coaches Jesse Minter and Declan Doyle.
The thing about teams like the Ravens, though, is that you have multiple chances to use them. This week, their win probability per PoolGenius is 79%, second of the week, but actually the third-highest left on their schedule – Titans (81%) in Week 4 and Browns (85%) in Week 16. For those reasons, and some concerns about the Saints maybe being plucky enough to pull a stunner here, I’m holding the Ravens back.
NFL Week 2 Survivor Pick
Buccaneers (-8.5) over Browns
Back to the Sunshine State, which was good to us last week with the Jaguars over the Browns. I’ll pick on my hometown team again here. As noted on X by @ClevTA, the Browns have not had a trip into the red zone in the first half of Deshaun Watson’s first four starts. All of the offensive numbers are quite damning, to be honest.
The Browns defense also got carved up by Trevor Lawrence and the Jags, who racked up 6.4 yards per play and did even better than that before laying off the gas pedal in the fourth quarter. Watson was sacked five times with what was basically a brand-new offensive line for the Browns, while the Myles Garrett-less defense in brown and orange had just one sack on Lawrence.
The Bucs had a pretty poor opening performance against the Bengals, but they are not facing Joe Burrow this week. Also, the Bucs kept it a one-score game despite four lost fumbles. Baker Mayfield was sacked four times and didn’t play very well, so he’s in a bounce back situation here against his former team and you know he’d love to stick it to them. The Bengals had a scoop-and-score and turned each of the other three takeaways into points. Even if TB is sloppy again here, the Browns are highly unlikely to have that sort of efficiency.
The Bucs are not a holiday team and this is their only game listed above 65% win probability right now per PoolGenius, so it seems like the right time to deploy them.
Pick: Buccaneers
Teams Used: Jaguars
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