Average Joe Contest
Picks are locked in for Week 5 of the Edge Boost/Average Joe Contest here at VSiN. With over 20,000 selections submitted, we can get a pretty good idea of what the most popular public plays are. This contest includes both NFL and college football picks and has an 11 a.m. ET deadline on Saturday. That means I have time to write up the top NFL selections if you want to ride along with the “public” Average Joes or go against them.
Those who have an Edge Boost account funded with $100 or more are eligible to win $1,000 if they have the best score of the week. Sign up with the promo code VSiN to get started with Edge Boost. If you just want to play for fun, you can do that as well, as this contest does not have an entry fee.
We use lines from Circa Sports as of 1 p.m. ET on Fridays and all contestants pick from those numbers. You can read more about the contest rules here.
Keep in mind that you can still be eligible for prizes, even if you didn’t sign up in time for Week 5. You can do that here.
NFL Picks Week 5
Let’s look at the most popular spreads for NFL Week 5. These are the most popular games by consensus, so they may not be the most-picked sides by volume, but have the highest percentage of the spread picks on that particular game.
Getting a survey of what “Average Joes” are thinking on the NFL is always intriguing. Of course, you can also do that with our DraftKings NFL Betting Splits and Circa NFL Betting Splits, but we’re here to look at what contest players are thinking.
Here are the most popular ATS Picks for Week 5:
Steelers -2.5 (91%) vs. Colts
This game has a consensus that is 10% higher than any other ATS pick for Week 5. It seems like Joes already know the final score before the game has been played. There is a perfect storm of schedule situations here, as the Colts played in London last week and the Steelers are on extra rest after losing to the Browns on Thursday night. As a Cleveland native, it is very hard to wrap my head around bettors actively wanting to bet on a team that just lost to the Browns, but here we are.
Of the 958 picks on the spread, 875 are on the Steelers
Falcons -3 (81%) vs. Ravens
This game is for the birds! Alright, lame joke. But, Joes are very much in favor of fading Tyler Huntley, as Lamar Jackson officially will not play in this one. Atlanta has looked like a completely different team since Michael Penix Jr. was healed up enough to get back in the lineup. Baltimore’s defense has had some issues under first-year HC and former DC Jesse Minter, so it seems as though there are some big questions as to whether or not Huntley and the Ravens offense can keep pace.
Of the 508 picks on the spread, 412 are on the Falcons.
49ers +3.5 (77%) vs. Seahawks
There are two things I can tell you about this game. The first is that you rarely see underdogs this public in this type of contest. It is always favorite-heavy. And Over-heavy, for that matter. The second is that there are a lot of people out there who subscribe to the theory of “fading the public dog”. The Saints are another one this week in the Average Joe Contest, picking up 76% of the spread selections against the Vikings. Let’s see if this one, and that one, work out for the masses.
Of the 561 picks on the spread, 434 are on the 49ers.
Here are the three most popular totals of Week 5:
Similarly, I’ll also be looking at the top totals each Saturday morning with a little bit of context mixed in.
Lions/Cardinals Over 54.5 (97%)
Shout-out to the 11 brave souls who went against the grain here to take the Under in this game for the Average Joe Contest. I will reiterate that Overs usually make up the three most popular plays and also say that totals are far less popular in general than spread selections. That being said, the Over in Lions games shows up here more often than not and here it is once again, as Jared Goff plays his first indoor road game of the season.
Of the 367 picks on the total, 356 are on the Over.
Vikings/Saints Under 42 (83%)
Just as I say that Overs are usually the ones with the most love, we get an Under! If fading the public dog is a popular strategy, I would say the same about fading the public Under. Everybody wants to root for points because points are fun. A 10-7 game is not nearly as fun. Also, most bettors also dabble in fantasy football and they’re going to be rooting for their guys to put up stats, which usually correlates to wanting to bet the Over. Here, though, the underdog Saints and the Under are attractive to Joes.
Of the 142 picks on the total, 118 are on the Under.
Bills/Rams Over 54.5 (80%)
Back to our regularly-scheduled programming here. An Over with two highly-visible teams on Monday Night Football. I absolutely would have forecasted this pick to be in the consensus and it is, though it is not a high-volume selection. In fact, there are only 111 total picks on the total here. I’m not surprised to see a 60/40 split in favor of the Rams on the side, but I’m a little surprised to see that we don’t have more contestants on the Over.
Of the 111 picks on the total, 89 are on the Over.
See all of the pick counts, including college football, on the Average Joe Contest Betting Splits page.
