It’s time for Week 5 of the 2026 NFL season. I strongly suggest you check out the Week 5 NFL Betting Hub, where you’ll find all of the features and picks from my talented co-workers. On top of that, we never stop pumping out good NFL content on our live shows. That’s the beauty of being a subscriber. As a company, we’re relentless in our effort to get you prepared for these games. With that out of the way, let’s get into the fun stuff. Keep reading for my Week 5 NFL best bets and Week 5 NFL player props.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for NFL best bets from all of our analysts
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – 9:30 am ET (London)
There probably won’t be anything fun about waking up and backing a life-less Eagles team, but it feels like it must be done. Losing Lane Johnson absolutely hurts a Philadelphia team with a weak offensive line, and the Eagles do come into this one off back-to-back losses. However, last week’s loss was a one-score defeat at the hands of a good Los Angeles team, and it just doesn’t make sense that the Eagles are now getting more than a touchdown against the Jaguars.
In many cases, I’m alright with using 2026 numbers to handicap games early in the season. Those would strongly favor the Jaguars, a top-10 team in both offensive and defensive EPA/Play, over the Eagles, a bottom-10 team in both. However, with some of these top-tier franchises, you have to give them some time to figure things out. Well, Philadelphia has been one of the league’s better teams for years, and this team is still extremely talented. That said, I can’t get on board with writing them off completely. And I’m nowhere close to wrapping my head around Jacksonville moving from -2.5 to -7.5 based on a couple of recent results.
I’ll also throw this out there: Philadelphia is 15-3 straight-up and 10-8 against the spread after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better under Nick Sirianni. The Eagles are also 6-4 when coming off two or more consecutive losses under Sirianni.
If anything gives me pause about backing the Eagles, it’s that the Jaguars are very used to playing in London. But I still think we’ll get a one-score game here.
Bet: Eagles +8 (-110 – 1.5 units) & Eagles ML (+320 – 0.5 units)
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints – 1:00 pm ET
I’m a little concerned about the Minnesota passing game right now. Kyler Murray has looked abysmal for the Vikings, and Justin Jefferson is banged up. At some point, Minnesota is going to need to reconsider things at the position, and I’m not even sure it’ll look right this week. But I don’t think the Vikings need to be explosive through the air to win here. Last week, the Falcons rushed for 205 yards against a soft Saints defensive line, and I imagine Minnesota will similarly pound away between the tackles. Also, the Vikings are No. 1 in the NFL in EPA/Play Allowed (-0.209), by far. Once again, Brian Flores is coordinating one of the league’s best defenses, and the team should be able to keep New Orleans in check.
Not only am I playing Vikings moneyline in this one, but I’m also taking Aaron Jones to have at least 72 rushing yards. He has had at least 94 in two of the last three games, and he’s now getting a team that is allowing more rushing yards per game to opposing running backs than any other group in the league.
Bet: Vikings ML (-130) & Jones Over 71.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers – 1:00 pm ET
I understand this has been a rough start to the season for the Packers. Green Bay has suffered lopsided losses to Minnesota and Atlanta, and the team was unimpressive in wins over New York and Tampa Bay. However, this is still a very talented football team, and the opportunity to get right back in the picture in the NFC North is there. Chicago is still playing without Caleb Williams, making the Bears’ high-octane offense a lot easier to stop. I’m also not fully bought into the Chicago defense, which is currently No. 8 in EPA/Play Allowed (0.116). We saw Carolina move the ball at will against that unit in Week 1. Are we sure Jordan Love and the Green Bay offense can’t do the same?
The Packers also happen to be 6-4 both straight-up and against the spread as home underdogs under Matt LaFleur. They’re also 27-17 SU against division opponents with him at the helm.
I’m not even sure I’d love Chicago in this game with Williams, so grabbing plus-money odds with Green Bay against Tyson Bagent is a no-brainer.
Bet: Packers ML (+120)
Additional Week 5 Best Bets
Buccaneers +8.5 (-108) vs. Cowboys – Check out my Thursday Night Football Preview!
Romeo Doubs Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-115) vs. Raiders – Vegas is 32nd in the NFL in YAC allowed against wide receivers + 31st in the NFL in ADOT allowed to WR.
PARLAY: Bengals ML vs. Dolphins & Texans ML vs. Titans (-145)
PARLAY: Browns Alt +8.5 vs. Jets & 49ers Alt +8.5 vs. Seahawks (-135)
Jameis Winston Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+162) vs. Commanders
Week 4 Picks
Browns ML (+125 – 1.5 units) vs. Steelers
Watson Over 1.5 Passing TDs (+285 – 0.5 units) vs. Steelers
Colts vs. Commanders Over 46.5 (-115)
Texans ML (-136) vs. Cowboys
Winston Over 212.5 Passing Yards (-115) vs. Cardinals
Winston 2+ Passing TDs (+150) vs. Cardinals
Panthers +4 (-110) vs. Lions
Waller Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-113) vs. Lions
Waller Anytime TD (+285 – 0.5 units) vs. Lions
Falcons +3 (-118) vs. Saints
Falcons ML (+130 – 0.5 units) vs. Saints
2026 NFL Record: 23-21 (+4.58 units)
