Average Joe Contest
Picks are locked in for Week 7 of the Edge Boost/Average Joe Contest here at VSiN. With over 19,000 selections submitted again this week, we can get a pretty good idea of what the most popular public plays are. This contest includes both NFL and college football picks and has an 11 a.m. ET deadline on Saturday. That means I have time to write up the top NFL selections if you want to ride along with the “public” Average Joes or go against them.
Those who have an Edge Boost account funded with $100 or more are eligible to win $1,000 if they have the best score of the week. Sign up with the promo code VSiN to get started with Edge Boost. If you just want to play for fun, you can do that as well, as this contest does not have an entry fee.
We use lines from Circa Sports as of 1 p.m. ET on Fridays and all contestants pick from those numbers. You can read more about the contest rules here.
Keep in mind that you can still be eligible for prizes, even if you didn’t sign up in time for Week 7. You can do that here.
Speaking of contests, we are running a Sports Equinox challenge this week in honor of Monday’s schedule that brings together all four North American pro leagues – MLB (World Series Game 3), NFL (Cowboys vs. Eagles MNF), NBA, and NHL.
NFL Picks Week 7
Let’s look at the most popular spreads for NFL Week 7. These are the most popular games by consensus, so they may not be the most-picked sides by volume, but have the highest percentage of the spread picks on that particular game.
Getting a survey of what “Average Joes” are thinking on the NFL is always intriguing. Of course, you can also do that with our DraftKings NFL Betting Splits and Circa NFL Betting Splits, but we’re here to look at what contest players are thinking.
Here are the most popular ATS Picks for Week 7:
Browns -2 (87%) vs. Titans
Oh, no. When the public is backing the Browns, this Cleveland native gets really, really scared. It would seem that the Average Joes are not worried about Tennessee’s 20-point explosion in the fourth quarter against the Colts last week for Robert Saleh’s first win as the head coach of the Titans. It is sort of wild to think about a world in which the Browns are a pretty decent football team, given that they have a new head coach and are somehow getting by with Deshaun Watson. But, it is not wild at all to think about the Titans struggling and it would seem that Joes expect that to continue.
Of the 639 picks on this spread, 557 are on the Browns.
Bengals +1.5 (87%) vs. Ravens
Ohio vs. The World! The Bengals are a very popular pick this week with Lamar Jackson out again. This is a bit of a line grab from the field, as the Bengals are now painted a favorite across the board with the news confirming what many were already speculating about with Jackson’s status. Cincy is off the bye, so we’ll see if they can use that to their advantage as well. Normally, I’d say “beware the trendy dog” here, but the Bengals are no longer a dog and this was just an astute position taken by Joes.
Of the 511 picks on this spread, 447 are on the Bengals.
Panthers -3 (76%) vs. Buccaneers
I’m not sure I can recall a time when the Panthers were in the top three consensus picks for this contest, but here we are. Even with Baker Mayfield back for the Bucs this week, Joes are adamant that the Panthers, who are off of the bye as well, are going to defend Bank of America Stadium. This is a fairly low consensus percentage for a top-three selection, which shows how split the field is on this week’s card, especially with a lot of lines that are hovering around -3 or -4.
Of the 392 picks on this spread, 296 are on the Panthers.
Here are the three most popular totals of Week 7:
Similarly, I’ll also be looking at the top totals each Saturday morning with a little bit of context mixed in.
Packers/Lions Over 53.5 (94%)
Death, taxes, and Lions Over in the consensus. This is an overwhelmingly popular selection, as only 26 brave souls were willing to line up on the Under and root against points for this NFC North clash. Detroit has scored at least 26 points in every game and 31+ in four of them. The Packers aren’t playing high-scoring affairs at a similar level, but perhaps the Lions defense can bring more offense out of them. Green Bay games have averaged 42 points per game. Detroit games have averaged 62.4 PPG. Joes seem to be heavily valuing bye weeks, as Detroit is off of one and two of the top spread selections featured teams getting back to work as well.
Of the 422 picks on the total, 396 are on the Over.
Browns/Titans Under 37 (82%)
There are less than 100 total selections on this total, as we once again see most of the Over/Unders getting bypassed by contestants. Lions Overs and Cowboys Overs seem like the only totals that get good volume week in and week out, though Dallas is not in this section this week. The Browns and Titans make another appearance here, as Joes are looking forward to a low-scoring game won by Cleveland. It’s probably not a bad thought, as Tennessee has some decent defensive numbers under Saleh, but the offense has puttered around for the most part. For the Browns, Watson plays like one good quarter a week and the team wins a close, low-scoring affair.
Of the 96 picks on this total, 82 are on the Under.
Colts/Vikings Under 41 (80%)
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4 came out earlier this week, so it makes sense that there would be some sort of Kyler Murray fade here. The Vikings did get 70% of the spread selections, but the Under is a popular play here. Brian Flores’ blitz-heavy defense leads the NFL in a variety of metrics, along with stuffing the run, so they’ve been an impenetrable force en route to a 5-0 start. Also, here’s another team off of the bye getting attention, which makes sense with the quality of the defense in a normal week.
Of the 110 picks on the total, 88 are on the Under.
See all of the pick counts, including college football, on the Average Joe Contest Betting Splits page.
