Week 7 NFL Betting Trends:
The following NFL betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 7. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Teams that lose outright to divisional rivals as double-digit favorites have bounced back in the next contest with a 15-3 SU and 13-5 ATS (72.2%) record since 2015
System Match (PLAY): LA RAMS (-4.5 at LVR)
* In games between two teams with 35% or less winning percentages, and totals <= 41, underdogs are 35-31 SU and 44-21-1 ATS (67.7%) since the start of the 2015 season.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+4.5 at NYJ)
* Road teams are 7-9 SU but 13-3 ATS in the last 16 of the Bengals-Ravens AFC North rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-1.5 at BAL)
* KANSAS CITY is 15-5 SU and 17-3 ATS in its last 20 games as a road underdog
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+2.5 at SEA)
* NFL teams that have won their last three games outright, with the first being in upset fashion then being favored in the latter games are 95-22 SU and 75-42 ATS (64.1%) in the follow-up game when favored by 3 points or more.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-6.5 vs IND)
* The last 38 Monday Night Football games involving a home underdog have seen Under the total go 25-11-2 (69.4%), games producing just 41.1 PPG.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DAL-PHI (o/u at 44.5)
* In games matching bad offensive teams (<=19 PPG scored) against bad defensive teams (>=27 PPG Allowed), it isn’t wise to lay points with the bad offense, as they are 62-52 SU but 40-73-1 ATS (35.4%) since 2015.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-4.5 at ARI)
* Play on favorites of 7 points or more heading into their bye week. (Record: 81-6-1 SU and 58-28-2 ATS since 2002, 67.4%, +27.2 Units, 31.6% ROI, Grade 70)
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-10.5 vs NYG)
Team/Coach/QB Specific Situational NFL Betting Trends
These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:
(311) NEW ENGLAND (4-2) at (312) CHICAGO (4-2)
* NEW ENGLAND is 38-8 SU and 33-13 ATS when riding a 3-game or more outright winning streak since 2016
* NEW ENGLAND is 21-30-3 ATS (41.2%) as an underdog since 2021
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of NEW ENGLAND (+3 at CHI)
(451) PITTSBURGH (4-2) vs (452) NEW ORLEANS (2-4)
* PITTSBURGH is 112-83 Under the total (57.4%) since 2015
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PIT-NO (o/u at 44.5)
* NEW ORLEANS is 45-26 ATS (63.4%) in road/neutral games since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+3.5 vs PIT)
(453) TAMPA BAY (1-5) at (454) CAROLINA (3-2)
* TAMPA BAY is 32-45 ATS (41.6%) when coming off SU loss since 2016
Trend Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (+3.5 at CAR)
* TAMPA BAY’s Todd Bowles is 15-11 Over the total vs. teams with a better record since 2017
* TAMPA BAY is on a 29-12 Over the total surge as a single-digit road underdog
Trends Match (PLAY OVER): TB-CAR (o/u at 44.5)
* CAROLINA is 11-20 SU and 10-21 ATS vs. poor teams with winning percentages <=33% since 2017
* CAROLINA is 25-33 ATS (43.1%) at home since 2019
* CAROLINA is 18-36 ATS (33.3%) as a favorite since 2016
Trends Match (FADE): CAROLINA (-3.5 vs TB)
(455) MIAMI (0-5) at (456) NY JETS (2-4)
* MIAMI is 40-25 ATS (61.5%) vs. divisional opponents since 2015
* MIAMI is 58-48 ATS (54.7%) as an underdog since 2014
* MIAMI is on a 38-22 SU and 36-23 ATS surge vs. teams with a losing record since 2019
* NY JETS are 21-40 ATS (34.4%) vs. divisional opponents since 2016
* NY JETS are 13-28 ATS (31.7%) as a favorite since 2017
Trends Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+4.5 at NYJ)
(457) CLEVELAND (4-2) at (458) TENNESSEE (1-5)
* CLEVELAND is 20-34 ATS (37%) as a favorite since 2017
* CLEVELAND is 6-22 SU and 5-23 ATS when coming off a game having allowed <=14 points since 2014
Trends Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-1.5 at TEN)
* TENNESSEE is 38-52-1 ATS (42.2%) in non-divisional conference games since 2014
* TENNESSEE is on 11-47 SU and 17-40-1 ATS skid in Sunday games
Trends Match (FADE): TENNESSEE (+1.5 vs CLE)
* TENNESSEE is 11-3 Under the total when coming off an upset win since 2022
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-TEN (o/u at 37.5)
(459) NY GIANTS (3-2) at (460) HOUSTON (2-4)
* NY GIANTS’ John Harbaugh is 16-18-1 SU but 25-10 ATS as an underdog since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY): NY GIANTS (+10.5 at HOU)
* NY GIANTS are 63-43 Under the total (59.4%) since 2020
* HOUSTON’s DeMeco Ryans is on a 13-5 Under the total streak as a home favorite
* HOUSTON’s DeMeco Ryans is on a 22-8 Under the total surge vs. teams with a winning record
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): NYG-HOU (o/u at 42.5)
(461) SAN FRANCISCO (6-0) at (462) ATLANTA (2-4)
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Kyle Shanahan is on a 9-8 SU and 4-13 ATS skid when coming off a home win
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Brock Purdy is just 19-8 SU but 13-14 ATS in the last 27 vs. teams with lesser records
Trends Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-3 at ATL)
* ATLANTA is 23-43 ATS (34.8%) at home since 2018
* ATLANTA is on a 13-28 SU and 11-30 ATS skid on normal rest (7 days)
Trends Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+3 vs SF)
* ATLANTA’s Kevin Stefanski is 26-17 Over the total vs. teams with a winning record since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SF-ATL (o/u at 50.5)
(463) INDIANAPOLIS (2-4) at (464) MINNESOTA (5-0)
* INDIANAPOLIS is 17-24 SU but 28-13 ATS vs. elite teams with point differentials of >=+4.5 PPG since 2015
* INDIANAPOLIS is 26-26 SU and 37-14 ATS vs. elite defenses allowing <19 PPG since 2010
* INDIANAPOLIS’s Daniel Jones is 9-13 SU but 16-6 ATS as a road underdog of +3 to +7 points since 2019
* INDIANAPOLIS’s Daniel Jones is 18-22 SU but 23-18 ATS with his team coming off an outright loss since 2020
Trends Match (PLAY): INDIANAPOLIS (+6.5 at MIN)
* MINNESOTA is 22-30 ATS (42.3%) at home since 2020
* MINNESOTA is 35-21 ATS (62.5%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014
* MINNESOTA is 26-13 SU but only 13-26 ATS in its last 39 games as a home favorite
* MINNESOTA’s Kyler Murray is just 9-11 SU and 7-13 ATS in his last 20 starts as a favorite
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 3 FADES of MINNESOTA (-6.5 vs IND)
* INDIANAPOLIS’ Daniel Jones is 35-18 Under the total as an underdog since 2020
* MINNESOTA’s Kyler Murray is 12-4 Over the total vs. teams with a losing record since 2022
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in IND-MIN (o/u at 41.5)
(465) CINCINNATI (3-2) at (466) BALTIMORE (4-2)
* CINCINNATI is 61-70 SU but 78-50 ATS on the road dating back to 2011
* CINCINNATI’s Zac Taylor is on 14-14 SU and 20-8 ATS run vs. elite teams with winning percentages >=66.7%
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-1.5 at BAL)
* BALTIMORE is 15-16 SU but 23-8 ATS as an underdog since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+1.5 vs CIN)
(467) DENVER (4-2) at (468) ARIZONA (2-4)
* DENVER is 30-42 ATS (41.7%) as a favorite since 2017
Trend Match (FADE): DENVER (-4.5 at ARI)
* ARIZONA is 28-39 ATS (41.8%) at home since 2018
* ARIZONA is 38-29 ATS (56.7%) as an underdog since 2021
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of ARIZONA (+4.5 vs DEN)
* DENVER is 114-76 Under the total (60%) since 2015
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ARI-DEN (o/u at 43.5)
(469) GREEN BAY (4-2) at (470) DETROIT (3-2)
* GREEN BAY is 26-14-1 ATS (65%) as an underdog since 2019
* GREEN BAY’s Matt Lafleur boasts an impressive record of 13-7 SU and 15-4-1 ATS as an underdog of +3 to +7 points since 2019
Trends Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (+3 at DET)
* GREEN BAY’s Matt Lafleur is 12-2 Over the total when coming off an upset win since 2021
* GREEN BAY’s Jordan Love is on 19-11 Over the total surge when his team is coming off a win
Trends Match (PLAY OVER): GB-DET (o/u at 53.5)
* DETROIT is 27-15-2 ATS (64.3%) at home since 2021
* DETROIT is 19-9 SU and ATS when coming off a double-digit win since 2018
* DETROIT is 18-10 SU and 21-7-1 ATS when playing with extra rest (>7 days) since 2019
* DETROIT is on a 22-16 SU and 24-13-1 ATS run vs. teams with a winning record
* DETROIT’s Jared Goff is 18-9 SU and 18-8-1 ATS in divisional games since 2021
Trends Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-3 vs GB)
(471) LA RAMS (2-4) at (472) LAS VEGAS (3-3)
* LA RAMS are 30-18 ATS (62.5%) when coming off SU loss since 2019
* LAS VEGAS is 42-57 ATS (42.4%) when coming off SU loss since 2015
Trends Match (PLAY): LA RAMS (-4.5 at LVR)
(473) KANSAS CITY (5-0) at (474) SEATTLE (3-3)
* KANSAS CITY is 15-5 SU and 17-3 ATS in its last 20 games as road underdog
* KANSAS CITY’s Andy Reid is on 18-5 SU and 15-7 ATS surge in non-conference games
Trends Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+2.5 at SEA)
* SEATTLE is 37-27-1 ATS (57.8%) when coming off SU loss since 2015
* SEATTLE is 26-19-3 ATS (57.8%) vs. non-conference foes since 2015
Trends Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-2.5 vs KC)
* SEATTLE is 23-11 Over the total vs. teams with a better record since 2011
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): KC-SEA (o/u at 42.5)
(475) DALLAS (2-4) at (476) PHILADELPHIA (2-4)
* DALLAS is 31-14 SU and 27-18 ATS vs. teams with a losing record since 2020
* DALLAS’ Dak Prescott is 35-8 SU and 31-12 ATS in divisional games since 2017
* DALLAS’ Dak Prescott is 19-10 SU and 18-11 ATS when his team is playing with extra rest (>7 days) since 2016
* PHILADELPHIA is 18-32 ATS (36%) when coming off a SU loss since 2018
Trends Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-4.5 at PHI)
* PHILADELPHIA’s Nick Sirianni is 17-5 Under the total in the last 22 games when coming off an outright loss
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DAL-PHI (o/u at 44.5)
NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams.
HUGE UPSETS
Teams that lose outright to divisional rivals as double-digit favorites have bounced back in the next contest with a 15-3 SU and 13-5 ATS (72.2%) record since 2015
System Match (PLAY): LA RAMS (-4.5 at LVR)
BIG TIME PERFORMANCES
Teams that scored 45 or more points in their prior game have gone 27-17 SU but 13-31 ATS (29.5%) when favored at home by 3 or more points since 2012.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-3 vs GB)
CLOSE GAMES
Teams that lost their last game SU but covered ATS have not been good bets as favorites in their next contest, going just 50-46 SU and 34-62 ATS (35.4%) since the start of the 2019 season (including 20-18 SU but 9-29 ATS (23.7%) in divisional play in that same time frame).
System Match (FADE): NY JETS (-4.5 vs MIA)
Home teams coming off a high-scoring close win (>= 27 PF, <=3 point differential) have been a strong fade candidate recently, going 79-65-1 SU but 54-85-6 ATS (38.8%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-10.5 vs NYG)
WINNING BUT OUTGAINED IN YARDS
NFL teams that won their last game but got outgained by 100 yards or more are also bad as non-conference favorites in the next contest, going 5-8 SU and 0-12-1 ATS (0%) in their last 13 tries.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-4.5 at ARI)
NFL teams that won their last game but got outgained by 100 yards or more are very good as non-divisional conference favorites in the next contest, going 30-6 SU and 26-8-2 ATS (76.5%) since the start of the 2016 season.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR TENNESSEE vs CLE (+1.5 CURRENTLY)
NFL Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for NFL teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
NFL Team Strength Betting System #3:
In games between two teams with 35% or less winning percentages, and totals <= 41, underdogs are 35-31 SU and 44-21-1 ATS (67.7%) since the start of the 2015 season.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+4.5 at NYJ)
NFL Team Strength Betting System #4:
Teams having a 10% win percentage or higher than their opponent but are playing as home underdogs are right to be priced this way, as they are 16-53 SU and 20-47-2 ATS (29.9%) since the start of the 2017 season.
System Match (FADE): LAS VEGAS (+4.5 vs LAR)
NFL Team Strength Betting System #5:
Having minimum four games under their belt for the season, favorites sporting a win percentage that is at least 25% worse than their opponent have a 35-42-2 SU and 27-50-2 ATS (35.1%) record since the start of the 2015 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (-10.5 vs NYG), SEATTLE (-2.5 vs KC)
NFL Team Strength Betting System #10:
In games matching bad offensive teams (<=19 PPG scored) against bad defensive teams (>=27 PPG Allowed), it isn’t wise to lay points with the bad offense, as they are 62-52 SU but 40-73-1 ATS (35.4%) since 2015.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-4.5 at ARI)
NFL Team Strength Betting System #13:
Road teams averaging 8.0 or more yards per pass attempt have been dangerous, 155-103 SU and 146-108-4 ATS (57.5%) since 2015.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW ENGLAND (+3 at CHI), SAN FRANCISCO (-3 at ATL), KANSAS CITY (+2.5 at SEA)
NFL Team Strength Betting System #14:
Teams playing with a point differential of 7 points or worse on the season as home favorites are 62-61-1 SU and 48-73-3 ATS (39.7%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): NY JETS (-4.5 vs MIA)
NFL Team Strength Betting System #15:
Teams playing as underdogs despite a +10 PPG point differential have gone just 31-51 SU and 36-46 ATS (43.9%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (+2.5 at SEA)
NFL Team Strength Betting System #16:
Teams with +10 PPG point differentials are 74-38 SU but 43-66-3 ATS (39.4%) versus unfamiliar non-conference opponents in their last 122 tries.
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (+2.5 at SEA)
NFL Team Strength Betting System #17:
Oddsmakers set a pretty good path for whether or not real bad teams have a chance to compete, as those with -10 PPG differentials are 116-121 SU but 142-91-4 ATS (60.9%) so long as they are not a TD underdog or bigger (+7 or more) in the last 237 games.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+4.5 at NYJ)
TNF, SNF, and MNF Team Trends and Systems for the NFL
The following trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. The TNF study included only Thursday night games, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those games played on Sunday night, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew, which also included some Wednesday and Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular season games.
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or Weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 33-26 SU but 22-35-2 ATS (38.6%) in the last 59. Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in weeks 9 and later are 49-31 SU and 46-31-3 ATS (59.7%).
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (-3 vs NE)
More on totals, there have been 37 TNF games since 2012 with a total of 50 or greater, they went Under at a 24-13 rate (64.9%).
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NE-CHI (o/u at 50.5)
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
– Home favorites of less than a TD on SNF have historically been solid, going 62-46-2 ATS (57.4%) in their last 110.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-2.5 vs KC)
– In SNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are just 29-28 SU but 23-32-2 ATS (41.8%) in the last 57. Under the total is also 32-17 (65.3%) in the L49.
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-2.5 vs KC)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-SEA (o/u at 42.5)
– SNF teams coming off of losses have proven not ready for the big time, as they have gone just 17-34 SU and 20-31 ATS (39.2%) in their last 51 tries against teams off a win.
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-2.5 vs KC)
– Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 18-27-1 SU and 20-25-1 ATS (44.4%) in their last 46, but those coming off a win are on a current 35-12 SU and 27-20 ATS (57.4%) surge.
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-2.5 vs KC)
– More on unusual stat angles, the best defensive teams in the league, or those allowing less than 19 PPG, have gone just 21-28-1 SU and 21-29 ATS (42%) against worse defenses on SNF since 2019.
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (+2.5 at SEA)
SNF Team Trend
*Kansas City 16-11 Over since 2016, combined avg. 51 PPG
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): KC-SEA (o/u at 42.5)
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
– NFL home underdogs on Monday Night are on a run of 19-21 SU but 22-17-1 ATS (56.4%) dating back to September 2021. The last 38 of these games have seen Under the total go 25-11-2 (69.4%) as well, games producing just 41.1 PPG.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+4.5 vs DAL)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DAL-PHI (o/u at 44.5)
– Home teams have enjoyed little advantage in divisional MNF games of late, going 18-18 SU but 13-22-1 ATS (37.1%) in their last 36 tries.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+4.5 vs DAL)
MNF Team Trends
*Dallas 8-5 SU and ATS in the last 13
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-4.5 at PHI)
*Philadelphia 15-3-1 Under in the last 19
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DAL-PHI (o/u at 44.5)
If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly, or are going Over or Under regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider:
PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
*Dallas 17-14 ATS in the last 31
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-4.5 at PHI)
*Kansas City 17-7 SU and 16-8 ATS in the last 24 road primetime games
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+2.5 at SEA)
*Chicago 6-15 SU and 9-12 ATS in the last 2
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO (-3 vs NE)
*Kansas City 19-7 Over surge in road games
*Seattle 13-8 Under in the last 21
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in KC-SEA (o/u at 42.5)
NFL Streaks Provide Some Advantages for Bettors
The following betting systems focus on winning and losing streaks. Below are the ones that have qualifying plays for this week’s action.
NFL Streaks Betting System #2: NFL teams that have won their last three games outright, with the first being in upset fashion, then being favored in the latter games, are 95-22 SU and 75-42 ATS (64.1%) in the follow-up game when favored by 3 points or more.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-6.5 vs IND)
NFL Streaks Betting System #5: NFL teams that have won their last four games outright while outscoring opponents by fewer than 30 total points in that span have gone 67-16 SU and 52-29-2 ATS (64.2%) in the next game when favored.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-3 at ATL), MINNESOTA (-6.5 vs IND)
NFL Streaks Betting System #10: NFL teams that have lost their last four games ATS are 26-29 SU but 33-20-2 ATS (62.3%) in their last 55 games versus non-conference foes.
System Match (PLAY): LA RAMS (-4.5 at LVR)
NFL Streaks Betting System #18: Low-scoring (< 22 PPG) NFL teams coming off back-to-back SU wins have been terrible as small underdogs (+3 or less) in the next game, going 15-46-1 SU and 16-43-3 ATS (27.1%) since the start of the 2015 season.
System Match (FADE): GREEN BAY (+3 at DET)
Pre–Bye Week Systems and Trends
The following systems and trends are from the long-running article series detailing pre-bye week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason.
Pre-bye week system #3
Play on favorites of 7 points or more heading into their bye week. (Record: 81-6-1 SU and 58-28-2 ATS since 2002, 67.4%, +27.2 Units, 31.6% ROI, Grade 70)
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-10.5 vs NYG)
Pre-bye week system #9
Play against any teams heading into their bye week and playing as underdogs of more than 7 points (Record: 48-8 SU and 37-18-1 ATS since 2008, 67.3%, +17.2 Units, 31.3% ROI, Grade 67)
System Match (FADE): NY GIANTS (+10.5 at HOU)
* Please note that the systems above and all of the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season schedule, not playoffs.
Houston Texans Pre-Bye week game: 10/25 vs. NY GIANTS
– Houston boasts a 16-8 SU and 17-7 ATS record in pre-bye week games since its inception in 2002, including 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS at home
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-10.5 vs NYG
– Houston has gone 8-2-1 Under the total in its last 10 pre-bye week games
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYG-HOU (o/u at 42.5)
New Orleans Saints Pre-Bye week game: 10/25 vs. PITTSBURGH (in Paris)
– The Saints have gone 16-6-1 ATS in pre-bye week games since 2003
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+3.5 vs PIT)
– New Orleans is 5-1 Over the total in the last six pre-bye week games vs. AFC foes
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PIT-NO (o/u at 44.5)
New York Giants Pre-Bye week game: 10/25 at HOUSTON
– The Giants are on an 0-5 SU and ATS skid in their last five pre-bye week road/neutral games
Trend Match (FADE): NY GIANTS (+10.5 at HOU)
– The Giants are 8-2 Under the total in their last 10 pre-bye week games, scoring just 16.9 PPG
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYG-HOU (o/u at 42.5)
San Francisco 49ers Pre-Bye week game: 10/25 at ATLANTA
– San Francisco has gone a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS since 1997 as a pre-week road favorite, outscoring opponents 33.4-14.7
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-3 at ATL)
– The 49ers are on a 5-2 Over the total surge in pre-bye week games vs. NFC foes
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SF-ATL (o/u at 50.5)
Post Bye-Week Systems and Trends
The following systems and trends are from the long-running article series detailing pre- and post-bye week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason
Post-bye week system #1:
Play on road favorites coming out of their bye week. (Record: 120-50 SU and 98-68-4 ATS since ’99, 59%, +23.2 Units, 14% ROI, Grade 63)
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-1.5 at BAL)
Post-bye week road favorite subsystems:
– vs. divisional opponents. (Record: 32-20 ATS since 2002, 61.5%, +10 Units, 19.2% ROI, Grade 62)
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-1.5 at BAL)
Post-bye week system #2:
Play against home teams coming out of their bye week against non-conference opponents. (Record: 27-26 SU and 32-19-2 ATS since 2015, 62.7%, +11.1 Units, 21.7% ROI, Grade 63)
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-6.5 vs IND)
Post-bye week system #4:
Play Over the total in games involving posted totals of less than 40 with teams coming out of their bye week. (Record: 30-21-2 since 2010, 58.8%, +6.9 Units, 13.5% ROI, Grade 58)
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-NYJ (o/u at 39.5)
Post-bye week system #7:
Play Under the total with road teams coming off their bye week (Record: 47-26-1 since 2021, 64.4%, +18.4 Units, 25.2% ROI, Grade 60)
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIA-NYJ (o/u at 39.5), CIN-BAL (o/u at 48.5)
** Please note that the systems above and all of the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season schedule, not playoffs.
Cincinnati Bengals Post-Bye week game: 10/25 at BALTIMORE
– The Bengals are on a 3-1 SU and ATS surge in post-bye week road games
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-1.5 at BAL)
– Cincinnati has gone 5-1 Over the total in its last five post-bye week divisional games, allowing 37 PPG
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CIN-BAL (o/u at 48.5)
Detroit Lions Post-Bye week game: 10/25 vs. GREEN BAY
Detroit is 9-4-1 SU and 11-3 ATS in post-bye week games since 2012
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-3 vs GB)
The Lions are on 7-2 Under the total in the last nine post-bye week home games
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): GB-DET (o/u at 53.5)
Miami Dolphins Post-Bye week game: 10/25 at NY JETS
Miami is on a 3-7 SU and 1-7-2 ATS skid in post-bye week games vs. divisional rivals
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (+4.5 at NYJ)
The Dolphins are 8-1 Under the total in their last nine post-bye week games
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-NYJ (o/u at 39.5)
Minnesota Vikings Post-Bye week game: 10/25 vs. INDIANAPOLIS
– For as good as the Vikings were in pre-bye week games, they are nearly as bad out of the bye, 5-11 SU and 4-11-1 ATS in the last 16
Trend Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-6.5 vs IND)
– The Vikings are on a run of 9-3 Over the total in post-bye week games at home
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): IND-MIN (o/u at 41.5)
Top Head-to-Head Series NFL Betting Trends
These are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:
(311) NEW ENGLAND at (312) CHICAGO
* NEW ENGLAND is 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six meetings with Chicago, including a 3-0 SU and ATS streak at Soldier Field
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (+3 at CHI)
(453) TAMPA BAY at (454) CAROLINA
* Under the total is 4-1 in the last five of the Buccaneers-Panthers divisional set at Bank of America Stadium
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TB-CAR (o/u at 44.5)
(455) MIAMI at (456) NY JETS
* MIAMI is 14-3 SU and 12-4-1 ATS in the last 17 matchups with NY Jets
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+4.5 at NYJ)
* Over the total is 7-2 in the last nine of the overall series as well
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-NYJ (o/u at 39.5)
(457) CLEVELAND at (458) TENNESSEE
* CLEVELAND is 4-3 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven trips to play at Tennessee
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-1.5 at TEN)
* Over the total is 11-3 in the last 14 of the overall series as well
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-TEN (o/u at 37.5)
(459) NY GIANTS at (460) HOUSTON
* NY GIANTS have won and covered their last four meetings with Houston
Trend Match (PLAY): NY GIANTS (+10.5 at HOU)
(461) SAN FRANCISCO at (462) ATLANTA
* Home teams are 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six of the 49ers-Falcons set
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+3 vs SF)
(463) INDIANAPOLIS at (464) MINNESOTA
* Under the total is 5-1 in the Colts-Vikings series since 2008
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-MIN (o/u at 41.5)
(465) CINCINNATI at (466) BALTIMORE
* Road teams are 7-9 SU but 13-3 ATS in the last 16 of the Bengals-Ravens AFC North rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-1.5 at BAL)
(467) DENVER at (468) ARIZONA
* Over the total is a perfect 8-0 in the Broncos-Cardinals set since 1995
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DEN-ARI (o/u at 43.5)
* DENVER is also 7-1 SU and ATS in these eight meetings as well
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (-4.5 at ARI)
(469) GREEN BAY at (470) DETROIT
* Over the total is 8-2-1 in the last 11 of the Packers-Lions NFC North rivalry at Ford Field
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): GB-DET (o/u at 53.5)
* Underdogs are on 4-1 SU and 4-0-1 ATS surge at Detroit as well
Trend Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (+3 at DET)
(471) LA RAMS at (472) LAS VEGAS
* LA RAMS are 6-1 SU and ATS in the last seven matchups with the Raiders
Trend Match (PLAY): LA RAMS (-4.5 at LVR)
* Under the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the overall series as well
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAR-LVR (o/u at 48.5)
(473) KANSAS CITY at (474) SEATTLE
* KANSAS CITY is 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS in games versus Seattle since 2000
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+2.5 at SEA)
(475) DALLAS at (476) PHILADELPHIA
* Home teams are 13-2 SU and 12-3 ATS in the last 15 of Cowboys-Eagles NFC East rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+4.5 vs DAL)
NFL Rookie/Retread Coaching Systems
This material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2026, detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Mike LaFleur (Arizona), Jesse Minter (Baltimore), Joe Brady (Buffalo), Todd Monken (Cleveland), Klint Kubiak (Las Vegas), and Jeff Hafley (Miami) as well as re-tread coaches Kevin Stefanski (Atlanta), John Harbaugh (NY Giants), Mike McCarthy (Pittsburgh), and Robert Saleh (Tennessee).
Rookie Coach Systems
(Games this week: MIA(+4.5)-NYJ, CIN-BAL(+1.5), CLE(-1.5)-TEN, DEN-ARI(+4.5), LAR-LVR(+4.5))
– Rookie head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. Here is the breakdown: Home games – 175-192-10 ATS (47.7%). Road/Neutral games – 200-181-7 ATS (52.5%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, ARIZONA, LAS VEGAS
– As smaller favorites of -4 or fewer, rookie head coaches have gone 101-75 SU but 74-90-11 ATS (45.1%) over the last decade.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND
– In a trend that seems to make sense as far as familiarity is concerned, the more familiar the opponent, the less successful rookie head coaches have been. Take a look at these ATS winning percentages by opponent type since 2016: Divisional games 131-139-4 ATS (48.5%), Non-Conference games 107-93-8 ATS (53.5%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA, LAS VEGAS
– Among the key challenges new head coaches face is stringing wins together and keeping the team galvanized after losses. Rookie head coaches have been better at the latter. When coming off of losses, rookie head coaches own a record of 107-115-2 ATS (48.2%) since December 2020. After wins, they’ve done reasonably worse in that same time frame, 75-90-6 ATS (45.5%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, ARIZONA
Retread Coach Systems
(Games this week: PIT(-3.5)-NO, NYG(+10.5)-HOU, CLE-TEN(+1.5), SF-ATL(+3))
– Unlike the rookie head coaches, retread head coaches more proficient at covering point spreads at home since 2020. Here is the breakdown: Home games – 66-58 ATS (53.2%). Road/Neutral games – 63-65 ATS (49.2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TENNESSEE, ATLANTA
– Retread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites but respectable in the underdog role in their first seasons with new franchise. As favorites since 2015, they’ve gone 109-72 SU but just 73-97-11 ATS, for 42.9%! As dogs (or pick em), 91-190-1 SU and 140-136-6 ATS (50.7%).
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH
– The ATS results by game type are similar for the Division (49.2%) and Conference (47.3%) scenarios for retread coaches in terms of opponents. However, in non-conference games, they have really struggled, going 41-58 ATS (41.4%) over the last decade, including 23-38 ATS (37.7%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, NY GIANTS
– Retread head coaches have shown a tendency to start very slow at their new franchises and finish their first seasons quite successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2016, in games #1-#8 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 75-111 ATS (40.3%), while in weeks #9 and later, they’ve gone 97-86 ATS (53%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, NY GIANTS, TENNESSEE, ATLANTA
– Since 2015, when coming off a win or tie, these coaches have posted a respectable 94-86 ATS (52.2%) record in their first seasons, including 44-35 ATS (55.7%) since mid-2022. When coming off a loss, the record has been an ugly 151-185 ATS (44.9%) in that same time span.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY GIANTS, ATLANTA
NFL Rookie Quarterback Systems
These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season. The starters this week include Jalon Daniels (Tampa Bay).
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #1 – Rookie quarterbacks are running hot the L4 years
– Earlier I indicated winning percentages of 40.7% straight up and 51.2% ATS for rookie quarterbacks since 2006. The results of the last four seasons are much better. In fact, the 16 rookie QBs over the last four seasons have put together a collective record of 83-108 SU (43.5%) and 104-80-7 ATS (56.5%).
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+3.5 at CAR)
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Rookie quarterbacks have struggled on the road, particularly late in the season
– The results of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 149-140 ATS (51.6%) in home games but just 137-152 ATS (47.4%) in road/neutral games.
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (+3.5 at CAR)
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #9 – Rookie quarterbacks are not good bets as small road dogs
– Over the last 12 seasons, rookie starting quarterbacks have proven not worthy of backing as small road underdogs, going 23-56 SU but 34-43-2 ATS (44.2%) when catching +4.5 points or fewer.
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (+3.5 at CAR)
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – By type of opponent, divisional matchups have been toughest for rookie starting quarterbacks
– Since 2015, rookie QBs are just 58-117 SU and 75-95-4 ATS (44.1%) versus divisional opponents.
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (+3.5 at CAR)
NFL Veteran Quarterback Leading New Team Systems
These systems take into account veteran quarterback records in their first season with a new team. They include game logs of different veteran QBs since 2004 who have played at least eight years in the NFL and started extensively on a previous team. This week, there are three different QBs finding themselves in a new place: Kirk Cousins (Las Vegas), Geno Smith (NY Jets), and Kyler Murray (Minnesota).
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #2 – Veteran quarterbacks are best for their new teams in the month of October
I just showed how these veteran QBs in new places struggle a bit out of the gate. Well, these QBs have rebounded nicely in month of October, going 49-47 SU and 51-42-3 ATS (54.8%) since 2009.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY JETS (-4.5 vs MIA), MINNESOTA (-6.5 vs IND), LAS VEGAS (+4.5 vs LAR)
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #7 – Non-conference matchups have been an absolute struggle for veteran starting quarterbacks in their first season with new teams over the last five years
Since 2021, veteran QBs in their first season with new teams have struggled horribly against non-conference opponents, going 19-36 SU and 16-38-1 ATS (29.6%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (-6.5 vs IND), LAS VEGAS (+4.5 vs LAR)
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #8 –Veteran QBs have shown an inability to strong win streaks
together recently
In their last 75 starts with their new teams coming off outright victories, new incoming veteran QBs have gone just 37-38 SU and 33-41-1 ATS (44.6%). This trend dates back to 2021.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-6.5 vs IND)
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #9 –Veteran quarterbacks have proven relatively trustworthy as big favorites at home with their new teams
Since 2009, veteran starting quarterbacks facing home chalk lines of 5.5 points or more have been quite successful, going 39-5 SU and 28-14-2 ATS (66.7%). Under the total is also 28-15-1 (65.1%) in those games.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-6.5 vs IND)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-MIN (o/u at 41.5)
Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published in the 2026 VSiN NFL Betting Guide, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday at 3:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage.
Here is a quick tabulation on how DK bettors performed in the 2025 season:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 141-138 ATS (50.5%)
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 133-145 ATS (47.8%)
– Majority handle on totals: 143-135 (51.4%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 139-142 (49.5%)
The most interesting observation from last year’s bettors’ performances in the categories is that the majority handle groups were plus-.500 while the majority number of bets groups were sub-.500. Many pro bettors believe that handle represents a slightly sharper opinion while number of bets measures the public masses and thus is perhaps less sharp.
NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two seasons, when more than 68% of the handle has been on a road side of an ATS wager, this majority group boasts a 73-52 ATS (58.4%) record for +15.8 units and an ROI of +12.6%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI, NY GIANTS, CLEVELAND, TAMPA BAY
NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games since the start of the 2022 season, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 223-271 ATS (45.1%) for -75.1 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY JETS, CINCINNATI, TAMPA BAY, DETROIT, DALLAS
NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: Similar to #2 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 222-275 ATS (44.7%) for -80.5 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY JETS, CINCINNATI, CAROLINA, DETROIT, DALLAS
NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: In NFL non-conference games since the start of the 2023 season, DK majority handle groups have been quite sharp, going 133-112 ATS (54.3%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO, NEW ORLEANS, NY GIANTS, MINNESOTA, ARIZONA, LAS VEGAS, KANSAS CITY
NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2023 season, when the majority number of bets have backed a team in non-divisional conference tilts with smaller lines (6.5-points favorites or less), these groups have produced an outstanding 146-122 ATS (54.5%) record for +11.8 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, SAN FRANCISCO
NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last three seasons, these majority groups are just 142-163 ATS (46.6%) and 140-162 ATS (46.4%), respectively. This set of games includes all the Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO, KANSAS CITY, DALLAS
NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: Number of bets majority groups have been very sharp judging games when there is an exact one-game win difference between two teams in matchup. The teams they have gotten behind boast an amazing 155-123 ATS (55.8%) record for +19.7 units over the last three seasons. The highlight of the one-win separation games has been when bettors back the road team, as these majority groups have gone 88-64 ATS for 57.9% and +17.6 units of profit.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI, NY GIANTS, DETROIT, LAS VEGAS
Alternatively, when the standings show a 2-or-more-win gap, these majority number of bets groups have struggled to a 190-213 ATS (47.1%) mark.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ORLEANS, NY JETS, CLEVELAND, MINNESOTA, SAN FRANCISCO, CAROLINA, ARIZONA, KANSAS CITY
DK Betting Splits system #9: The average NFL total in 2023 was 43.0. Over the last two years, it ballooned back up to 44.8. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and odds makers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, majority number of bettors have gauged these games incredibly well the last three years, going 176-135 ATS (56.6%)!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – NE-CHI, SF-ATL, LAR-LVR, GB-DET
UNDER – CIN-BAL
DK Betting Splits system #11: The magic mark for super majority on handle for betting Overs was 74% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2023 and 2024 with a record of 84-107 (43.9%) for -33.7 units (16-15 for -0.5 units in 2026). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL INSTEAD): MIA-NYJ, CLE-TEN, TB-CAR, GB-DET
DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost regularly, going just 115-133 (46.4%) for -31.3 units over the past three seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL INSTEAD): MIA-NYJ, GB-DET
This Week’s NFL Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NY GIANTS +10.5 (+3.3)
2. TENNESSEE +1.5 (+2.0)
3. KANSAS CITY +2.5 (+1.6)
4. NEW ENGLAND +3 (+0.9)
5. LAS VEGAS +4.5 (+0.8)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CAROLINA -3.5 (+1.8)
2(tie). MINNESOTA -6.5 (+1.2)
DENVER -4.5 (+1.2)
4(tie). NY JETS -4.5 (+0.8)
DETROIT -3 (+0.8)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NY GIANTS +10.5 (+4.2)
2. ATLANTA +3 (+2.5)
3. KANSAS CITY +2.5 (+1.4)
4(tie). MIAMI +4.5 (+0.4)
NEW ORLEANS +3.5 (+0.4)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA RAMS -4.5 (+2.5)
2. CLEVELAND -1.5 (+1.3)
3. CAROLINA -3.5 (+1.2)
4. DENVER -4.5 (+1.0)
5. DETROIT -3 (+0.6)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NYG-HOU OVER 42.5 (+2.8)
2. KC-SEA OVER 42.5 (+2.5)
3. PIT-NO OVER 44.5 (+2.0)
4. IND-MIN OVER 41.5 (+0.7)
5. LAR-LVR OVER 48.5 (+0.3)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GB-DET UNDER 53.5 (-2.6)
2. DAL-PHI UNDER 44.5 (-1.4)
3. SF-ATL UNDER 49.5 (-0.4)
4. TB-CAR UNDER 44.5 (-0.3)
5. NE-CHI UNDER 50.5 (-0.2)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TENNESSEE +1.5 (+2.5)
2. INDIANAPOLIS +6.5 (+2.3)
3. NEW ORLEANS +3.5 (+1.9)
4(tie). NY GIANTS +10.5 (+1.4)
ATLANTA +3 (+1.4)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS -4.5 (+2.7)
2. DETROIT -3 (+2.4)
3. NY JETS -4.5 (+1.0)
4. SEATTLE -2.5 (+0.5)
5. CAROLINA -3.5 (+0.4)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. KC-SEA OVER 42.5 (+3.8)
2. PIT-NO OVER 44.5 (+3.6)
3(tie). DEN-ARI OVER 43.5 (+1.3)
LAR-LVR OVER 48.5 (+1.3)
5. SF-ATL OVER 49.5 (+1.0)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DAL-PHI UNDER 44.5 (-3.8)
2. TB-CAR UNDER 44.5 (-3.6)
3. GB-DET UNDER 53.5 (-2.9)
4. NE-CHI UNDER 50.5 (-1.1)
5. CLE-TEN UNDER 37.5 (-0.6)
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