NFC North
The NFC North was the best division in the NFL last season as three teams (Lions, Vikings and Packers) won at least 11 games, and those three made the playoffs. We could actually argue the former “Black-and-Blue Division” (as the old NFC Central used to be called back in my youth) had one of the best divisional seasons ever as the four teams set an all-time winning percentage record at 45-23 (66.2%) – and if you take away the 9-9 record they had vs. each other, they were 36-14 (72%) against all other divisions.
The Lions swept their three rivals by going 6-0 despite the tough competition. With the bulk of their team back (though they lost both coordinators), they are the +130 favorites to win the NFC North for the third straight season. If the Lions do that, it will be the first time Detroit has won three straight titles of any kind since 1952-54.
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Prior to this run, the Packers had won the division title in eight of the previous 12 years, all under Aaron Rodgers. The Packers are the second choice at +275 with the Vikings dropping to +400 with second-year quarterback JJ McCarthy being handed the reins to the offense from the departed Sam Darnold (and don’t forget that before last season, the Vikings were only favored in one game in preseason advance lines, so their 14-3 record was a major overachievement). The Bears bring up the rear at +450 with Caleb Williams looking to improve in his second year as starter.
Another sign that the NFC North could put up similar win numbers is the fact that the lowest Over/Under Season Win Total of the four teams is 8.5 (basically .500 in a 17-game schedule, though the Vikings are favored to the Over with the Bears favored to the Under). More on those on the individual team write-ups.
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Chicago Bears
Last year, Heisman Trophy winner and overall No. 1 draft pick Caleb Williams was supposed to be the best Chicago QB since Jim McMahon. Williams struggled early, but the Bears still started 4-2 and were in the thick of the playoff hunt – but then came the infamous loss on Jayden Daniels’ Hail Mary in Washington, DC, and that started a 10-game losing streak for the Bears that only ended in the season-finale vs. the Packers.
Chicago fired coach Matt Eberflus after another embarrassing loss to the Lions on Thanksgiving. After the season, they hired Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson as their new coach.
Offense
Contributing to Williams’ subpar rookie season was a poor offensive line that ranked last in pass-blocking efficiency, according to Pro Football Focus, allowed a league-high 68 sacks and had him often throwing on the run. Williams still threw for 3,541 yards (ranking No. 17) with 20 TDs and just six INTs to his credit, but overall the offense was No. 32 in the NFL at 284.8 yards per game and No. 28 in scoring at just 18.2 points per contest.
The running game was a little stronger at 102 yards per game (ranking No. 24) with former Lion D’Andre Swift leading the way with 959 yards and Roschon Johnson adding 150 yards and six TDs.
The Bears have a decent WR room (if Williams has time to get them the ball), with DJ Moore (98 catches, 966 yards), Rome Odunze (54 catches, 734 yards), and Missouri rookie Luther Burden III. They also have a solid TE in Cole Kmet and added Michigan TE Colston Loveland with the No. 10 pick in this spring’s draft. But the most important newcomers could be center Drew Dahlman, plus guards Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson, as that’s where the Bears needed the most help.
Defense
Just like the offense and the team overall, the Bears’ defense started strong and then had a hard time keeping them in games during the 10-game losing streak. They finished No. 29 against the run, No. 31 against the pass and No. 27 overall at 354.2 yards per game. The Bears’ D did have a few positive signs as they ranked No. 13 in third-down conversion percentage and No. 10 in tackling efficiency.
LB Tremaine Edwards led the team with 110 total tackles and has topped the century mark in all seven of his NFL seasons, with his first five years in Buffalo. The Bears also have a new defensive coordinator in Dennis Allen and also added DE Dayo Odeyingbo and DT Grady Jarrett via free agency and DT Shemar Turner with their second-round pick.
Outlook
Everyone is obviously waiting to see if Johnson can have the same impact on Williams that he had on Goff in Detroit, but the Bears should also see improvement on the defensive side of the ball under Allen. Don’t expect the Monsters of the Midway, but they should far exceed their five wins of a year ago (and remember they were 4-2 at one point, though mostly done with mirrors). With plus-money on the Over 8.5, we have to play it that way.
Pick: Over 8.5 Wins
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Detroit Lions
The Lions followed up their 12-5 season in 2023 by going 15-2 last year to win their second straight NFC North divisional title and secure the No. 1 seed in the NFC. However, they ultimately underachieved as they lost to the Commanders in the divisional round of the playoffs, their first game after the first-round bye. They’re loaded again this year (and get Aidan Hutchinson back on defense), but face the challenge of losing both their offensive and defensive coordinators to head coaching jobs with Ben Johnson moving to the Bears in the division and Aaron Glenn to the Jets.
Offense
The Lions were an offensive juggernaut in 2024 as they led the NFL with 454 points (26.7 points per game) and were No. 2 in total offense with 6,962 yards (409.5 yards per game), second only to the Ravens, and averaged 6.3 yards per play, also ranking second.
QB Jared Goff set franchise records for completion percentage (72.4%) and passer rating (111.8) and was an MVP candidate as he led the high-powered offense. Detroit lost center Frank Ragnow to retirement and guard Kevin Zeitler to free agency, but the rest of the core group is back, highlighted by the skill positions with the RB tandem of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. WR corps led by Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, plus TE Sam LaPorta.
The big question is if the offense continues to excel under new coordinator John Morton, who was with the Lions in 2022 as senior offensive assistant under Johnson before spending the last two years as Denver’s passing game coordinator.
Defense
A lot of times, when a team’s offense is lighting up the scoreboard, the defense suffers statistically, but the Lions’ D did its part, ranking No. 7 in the league with 342 points allowed (20.1 points per game) despite ranking No. 20 in total defense with 324.4 yards per game. The run defense ranked No. 5 with just 98.4 rushing yards per game.
That’s because opponents were usually playing from behind, which is where the passing defense numbers look worse than they really were, ranking No. 30 at 244 air yards per game as teams tried to get in shootouts with the Lions. And that was all after losing edge rusher Hutchinson in Week 6 with a broken tibia and fibula. The Lions were only tied for No. 23 in sacks, so Hutchinson’s return should make the Lions even better on D.
Outlook
The Lions are short +130 favorites to win the NFC North despite the tough division. It would be a major disappointment if they didn’t get to double-digit wins. We feel their Over/Under win total is actually set low at 10.5 and priced to the Under at -145 with the Over +125 at Circa Sports. There should be regression expected from 15 wins, but 11 is certainly attainable. We’ll take the plus-price.
Pick: Over 10.5 Wins
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Green Bay Packers
The Packers won 11 games last season but only finished third in the NFC North behind the Lions and Vikings. However, they did make the playoffs for the second straight year under QB Jordan Love (and fifth time in six years) and 37th time in franchise history (most in the NFL). They made an early exit from the playoffs as they drew the eventual Super Bowl champion Eagles in the wild-card round.
Offense
After having basically just two quarterbacks from 1992 to 2022 in Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers, Love has stepped right in with two solid seasons as the starting QB, throwing for 3,389 yards (ranked 19th in the league) and 25 touchdowns (tied No. 10 with a QBR of 69.3 (No. 5) in leading the Packers to No. 5 in total offense at 370.8 yards per game and No. 8 in scoring.
Josh Jacobs, formerly of the Raiders, replaced Aaron Jones as the leading rusher in Green Bay with 1,329 yards on the ground and added 36 receptions out of the backfield.
The Packers haven’t had a clear-cut WR1 since trading Davante Adams to the Raiders in 2022, but they have a deep receiving room as Jayden Reed led the team with 55 catches for 857 yards, followed by Christian Watson (29 catches, 620 yards), Romeo Doubs (46 catches, 601 yards), Dontayvion Wicks (39 catches, 415 yards), plus TE Tucker Kraft (50 catches, 707 yards). In the off-season, they added another speedster in Mecole Hardman from the Chiefs. They also used a first-round pick on talented wideout Matthew Golden.
Defense
Right before the deadline for this guide, the Packers released star cornerback Jaire Alexander and also lost Eric Stokes, but early reports have them happy to move forward with Nate Hobbs (from the Raiders), Keisean Nixon and Carrington Valentine.
Last season, first-year defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley got the job done as the Pack was No. 5 in total defense and No. 6 in points allowed despite having a top offense like the Lions. It also helped that Green Bay led the league in pressure percentage on blitzes, they were No. 4 in tackling (according to Pro Football Focus) and also were No. 4 in takeaways.
A bigger loss than the secondary (which at least has the division’s top safety in Xavier McKinney) might be defensive tackle TJ Slaton, whose run-stuffing abilities helped Green Bay improve from No. 28 in 2023 to No. 13 last season.
Outlook
The Over/Under Season Win Total is pretty solid at 9.5 (Over -115/Under -105 at Circa). The losses on defense are a concern, but the offense should be able to win enough shootouts to get them to double-digit wins again and a return to the playoffs.
Pick: Over 9.5 Wins
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Minnesota Vikings
Kevin O’Connell won AP Coach of the Year after leading the Vikings to a 14-3 record as his team exceeded expectations more than the Lions. The key to Minnesota’s surprising success was former first-round bust Sam Darnold taking over at QB; however, he’s gone after only one season after signing a three-year, $100 million deal with Seattle, so the Vikings are turning to second-year QB JJ McCarthy, who won the national championship at Michigan before the Vikings made him their QB of the future with the 10th pick in the 2024 draft. The Vikings are +400 to win the NFC North, falling behind the Packers (+275).
Offense
The Vikings’ offense was explosive in 2024 behind Darnold (4,319 passing yards, whopping 35 TDs) and a stellar receiving corps led by superstar Justin Jefferson (103 catches, 1,533 yards). WR Jordan Addison (63 catches, 875 yards) and TE TJ Hockenson (41 catches, 455 yards) also give hope that the transition won’t be too tough for McCarthy.
Overall, the offense ranked No. 9 in points per game (25.4) and No. 12 in total yards per game (346.9), but that was mostly due to the passing game as the Vikes were No. 19 in rushing yards per game.
Aaron Jones did come over from the Packers to lead Minnesota with 1,138 rushing yards, but 1,000 yards in a season ain’t what it used to be with 17 games. They did add Jordan Mason from the 49ers, but most of all, the Vikings need McCarthy to do what Love has done in Green Bay after sitting behind Rodgers.
Defense
The Vikings’ defense did its share in helping the team to a 14-3 record, similar to what the Lions’ defense did despite having a high-powered offense that was put back on the field after quick scores and facing teams in come-from-behind situations filling the air with passes. The Vikings still allowed just 19.5 points per game (ranking No. 5) and were No. 2 in rushing D at 93.4 yards per contest, while the pass defense was No. 28 at 242 yards per game due to opponents abandoning the run for the most part.
The defense did lose safety Camryn Bynum to the Colts, but kept CB Byron Murphy and added nice pieces in CB Isaiah Rodgers, DT Jonathan Allen and DT Javon Hargrave.
Outlook
The Vikings still certainly have a playoff-caliber roster, but starting basically a rookie QB certainly has us looking at them regressing from that 14-3 season. Despite the national title, I wasn’t too high on McCarthy’s pro prospects in last year’s draft class and wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a bust. Regardless, even with the Over/Under Season Win Total down to 8.5, I have to look to the Under (especially at plus-money).
Pick: Under 8.5 Wins
