On Sunday, December 28, the San Francisco 49ers host the Chicago Bears in Levi’s Stadium in a Week 17 Sunday Night Football showdown. We’re diving into all of the primetime NFL games this season and this one is no different. So keep reading for a Bears vs. 49ers betting preview. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 17 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Bears vs. 49ers
When: Sunday, December 28 at 8:20 pm ET
Where: Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California
Channel: NBC / Peacock
Bears vs. 49ers Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Friday, December 26. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: 49ers -166, Bears +140
Spread: Bears -3 (-112), Bears +3 (-108)
Total: Over 52.5 (-110), Under 52.5 (-110)
Bears vs. 49ers Analysis
All year long, people have called the Bears lucky, so it shouldn’t come as much of a surprise that the 49ers are a popular bet in this game. However, whether it’s luck or skill, this Chicago team has a way of getting involved in close games, making it hard to fade Ben Johnson’s group. I do think the 49ers are a slightly better football team than the Bears, but the two are right in the middle of Tier 3 and Tier 4 when looking at rbsdm’s EPA per play numbers for the 2025 NFL season. Chicago is slightly better when looking at EPA per play allowed (0.007 vs. 0.049), while San Francisco is better when looking at EPA per play (0.095 vs. 0.064). But in the grand scheme of things, these are two evenly-matched teams that are pretty damn balanced. So, I’d rather not lay the points with the 49ers, as I genuinely think this can go either way.
I do, however, love the Over in this game. Just last week, we saw Philip Rivers throw for 277 yards and two touchdowns in what was essentially a shootout against the 49ers. Indianapolis was moving the ball rather easily through the air, and that makes it pretty simple to envision Caleb Williams doing the same. The Bears will likely lean way more heavily on the ground game, as they have proven that they can hammer away between the tackles against pretty much anyone. But I do think there’s going to be a ton of throws to be made for Williams, as this 49ers secondary can’t be trusted. All of that leads me to believe that Chicago, with one of the league’s sharpest play-callers, will put a big number on the board.
It was, however, San Francisco that put up 48 points in a win over Indianapolis. And while this Bears defense is definitely better than the Colts defense, the 49ers are firing on all cylinders right now. In fact, over the last two weeks, the Niners have an EPA per play of 0.318, and their Dropback EPA per play is 0.533. Purdy is playing some of the best football of his career, and I’m not willing to look the other way strictly because he hasn’t faced strong competition — even as a bit of a Purdy hater.
There’s simply very little that suggests these defenses will be able to get off the field in this game, especially with the weather forecast looking perfect for Sunday night.
The Over also happens to be 20-14-1 in San Francisco games against teams with winning percentages between 60% and 75% under Kyle Shanahan. Also, under Shanahan, the Over is 9-2 in Week 17 or later in a season. I’ll also throw out that the Over is 5-3 when the Bears play on the road under Johnson.
Bears vs. 49ers Player Props
Lean: Luther Burden Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Burden has carried a questionable tag all week, but he can make plays if he ends up on the field. Our WR-CB Matchup Tool likes Burden’s matchup with 49ers corner Deommodore Lenoir, who has a mediocre coverage grade of 64.3 at Pro Football Focus. Burden has also come on strong over the last few weeks, averaging 75.5 receiving yards per game over the last two contests. Even if Rome Odunze is back in the mix for Chicago, this is a game that projects to be high in scoring. That means there should be plenty of targets to go around. So, I like Burden to go Over a total that seems rather low. He’s electric after the catch, plus he’s capable of making plays down the field.
Bears vs. 49ers Pick
This is the highest total on the board for Week 17, but the Over still feels like the right play. While these are two very good football teams, the defenses can be shaky. I expect the play-callers here to take advantage of that.
Bet: Over 52 (-109 – 1.5 units)
