In the second of two Week 6 Monday Night Football games, Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears look to earn a road win over Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders. We’ll be diving into all of the primetime games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 6 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Bears vs. Commanders
When: Monday, October 13 at 8:15 pm ET
Where: Northwest Stadium in Landover, Maryland
Channel: ABC
Bears vs. Commanders Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Sunday, October 12. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Commanders -230, Bears +190
Spread: Commanders -5.5 (-110), Bears +5.5 (-110)
Total: Over 49.5 (-115), Under 49.5 (-105)
Bears vs. Commanders Analysis
How healthy is Jayden Daniels right now? In last week’s win over the Chargers, the Commanders quarterback completed 15 of his 26 passes for 231 yards, one touchdown, and zero interceptions. He also rushed for 39 yards. All in all, it was a fine performance from the second-year pro, but “fine” isn’t what Washington is looking for from Daniels. He’s an extraordinary player and the team needs him to play like one to consistently beat great teams. And if Daniels isn’t at his very best for Monday Night Football, beating Chicago could be a challenge. And he’ll need to be at his best without Terry McLaurin.
This is Ben Johnson’s first year as a head coach, so we don’t have any trends that tell us how his teams will play after bye weeks. However, Johnson is tremendous when it comes to scripting early drives. That should only be amplified with extra time to watch film on this Commanders defense — especially with Washington being merely average on this side of the ball.
We have also seen a nice step forward from Caleb Williams and Co. over the last few weeks. The Bears opened the year with bad losses against the Vikings and Lions, but they’re averaging 28.0 points per game since then. In fact, since the start of Week 3, Chicago’s Dropback EPA per play is 0.213, which would be a top-10 mark in the league over the course of the entire season.
It just isn’t hard to imagine Williams using his full suite of weapons — like DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, Cole Kmet, and Colston Loveland — to keep pace with Daniels. It also wouldn’t be surprising if Williams out-duels him. The extra week of rest and preparation actually makes it so that it’d be pretty appalling if he can’t.
Realistically, the only concern with the Chicago offense is the left tackle spot, where Johnson made the decision to bench Braxton Jones to start Theo Benedet. The undrafted 24-year-old is extremely unproven, so Dan Quinn is going to be relentless in testing him. That means that how Benedet does protecting Williams’ blind side could determine how this game goes. Though Johnson is going to stress the importance of Williams getting the ball out quickly, or being on the move constantly.
As far as the defense goes, Chicago has been pretty decent defending the pass against everybody outside of Detroit. That said, the Bears should be able to hold up in the back of the defense — even with Jaylon Johnson out indefinitely. However, Chicago can’t afford to let Jacory Croskey-Merritt and the Washington ground game get going. The best way to keep Daniels from putting up big numbers is consistently putting him in long-yardage situations.
It’s also worth noting that home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that outgain opponents by 0.4 to 1.0 yards per play are 8-30 against the spread when facing teams that are outgained by 1.0 or more yards per play since 1983. Also, underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that commit 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game are 49-23 ATS since 2016 when coming off back-to-back games of committing one or fewer turnovers and happen to be facing teams that force 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game. While that second system is a mouthful, it’s good for +23.7 units and an ROI of 29.9%. That includes a winning record this year.
Bears vs. Commanders Player Props
Lean: Olamide Zaccheaus Over 2.5 Receptions (-126)
While I mentioned a number of Williams’ targets earlier, keep an eye on Zaccheaus as an under-the-radar prop option here. Zaccheaus has had at least three catches in three of the four games he has played this season, and he’s coming off a five-catch outing against the Raiders in Week 4. Our WR-CB Matchup Report also likes Zaccheaus’ potential matchup with Mike Sainristil. On top of that, our OptaAI player projections have Zaccheaus going for 4.34 receptions in this game, so two of our most valuable VSiN tools suggest he’ll have at least three catches.
Bears vs. Commanders Pick
I put in a play on Chicago at +4.5 and +190 earlier in the week, so I got caught with bad numbers. However, the Bears are still the side for me, so I’d suggest taking the 5 or 5.5 — along with some +220. Johnson has had an extra week to prepare for a Commanders defense that isn’t all that great, so this should be a pretty big game for the Chicago offense. And I don’t see Washington keeping up with Daniels not at 100% health.
Bet: Bears +4.5 (-105 – 1.5 units) & Bears ML (+190 – 0.5 units)
