The first of three Thanksgiving Day matchups for the 2024 NFL season features the Detroit Lions hosting the Chicago Bears at Ford Field. We’ll be diving into all of the big standalone games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 13 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.

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How To Watch Bears vs. Lions

When: Thursday, November 28th at 12:30 pm ET

Where: Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan

Channel: CBS

Bears vs. Lions Odds

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Tuesday, November 26th. Look around for the best prices!

Moneyline: Lions -500, Bears +380

Spread: Lions -10 (-112), Bears +10 (-108)

Total: Over 48.5 (-108), Under 48.5 (-112)

Bears vs. Lions Analysis

Not only is this Detroit team red-hot right now, but this team is also spread-hot. The Lions enter this Thanksgiving showdown on a nine-game winning streak, and the team is 8-1 against the spread over the course of the winning streak. Detroit has simply been dominant on both sides of the ball. The Lions have scored at least 42 points in four of their last nine games, and they have also held opponents to 14 or fewer points in six of the last nine. I thought Detroit would fall off a bit defensively when Aidan Hutchinson went down, but that hasn’t been the case. In fact, in the six games the Lions have played without its star defensive end, Detroit is second in the league in EPA per play allowed (-0.179). The team’s EPA per play allowed is also significantly better than it was from Weeks 1 to 6 (-0.071).

Despite all of that, it really feels like the Lions are laying too many points for a divisional matchup against a Bears team that has a great defense. Chicago is ninth in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (-0.051) this year, and the group is capable of making life difficult on any given opponent. Sure, last week’s 30-27 loss to Minnesota was ugly, but the team had allowed 20 or fewer points in six of its previous seven games before that. And considering the Bears are solid against both the run and the pass, it’s difficult to just rule out the possibility of them playing a great defensive game here. That starts with stopping the run. So, Matt Eberflus is likely working very hard on making sure the D-Line is ready for this game.

I also just like what we saw from Caleb Williams last week. The rookie threw for 340 yards with two touchdowns and no picks in the loss to the Vikings, and it feels like this passing game is starting to click a little. Chicago has an EPA per play of 0.110 in the two weeks since firing Shane Waldron. From Weeks 1 through 10, the Bears had an EPA per play of -0.081. An improved passing game has been a huge part of that. That said, I can see Chicago moving the ball against Detroit — especially with this game being played inside a dome. Under Eberflus, Chicago is actually 4-2 against the spread in dome games.

The Bears are also 4-2-1 ATS when taking on teams with winning percentages of 75.0% or better under Eberflus. Meanwhile, the Lions are just 3-3 ATS as home favorites of 7.5 to 14 points under Dan Campbell. And they’re 5-9 ATS when taking on teams with winning percentages between 25.0% and 40.0% under him. So, while Campbell is an awesome motivator, his teams struggle to get up for the games that are supposed to be completely lopsided.

The total is a little tougher to call. Our VSiN NFL betting splits show that bettors like the Over, and it’s hard to blame them. Detroit can go Over these numbers without help, and Chicago’s improved passing game should mean some points for the Bears. The Over is also 13-6 when the Lions are home favorites under Campbell. But division games tend to be ugly, and this one will be played on a very short week. So, I’d stay away from it.

Bears vs. Lions Player Props

Keenan Allen Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

In the two weeks with Thomas Brown calling plays for the Bears, Allen has been targeted a total of 23 times. Against Green Bay, Allen had just four catches for 41 yards. However, he hauled in nine catches for 86 yards and a touchdown against Minnesota last week. It just feels like Brown knows what he has in Allen, who is one of the best route runners in the NFL. Waldron clearly didn’t.

I like Allen to build on last week’s performance with another good showing in Week 13. And part of the reason I like this so much is that there is a chance Detroit has a lead for most of this game. That means that Chicago will be chasing, meaning a heavy dose of passing plays. And if Williams is chucking the ball down the field, Allen should eventually get to the reasonable 47-yard mark. Williams is also starting to learn how to play with his unique weapon.

Bears vs. Lions Pick

With Chicago having a good defense and an improved passing game, the Bears should be able to prevent this game from completely getting out of hand. For as bad as things seem in Chicago, the Bears have lost their last two games by a total of four points. They’re still fighting and competing, and I think they’ll do just that on Thanksgiving Day. They won’t want to get blown out by a division rival on national television.

Bet: Bears +10 (-105)

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