Best bets for 2023 NFL futures and props

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VSiN Staff
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The VSiN staff’s best bets for 2023 NFL futures and props

 

 

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Matt Youmans

Titans to win AFC South (+400)

With the division title on the line in Week 18, Joshua Dobbs was the Titans’ starting quarterback at Jacksonville. Dobbs was the third-string option because Ryan Tannehill was injured and rookie Malik Willis was ineffective. Derrick Henry carried 30 times for 109 yards, and the Tennessee defense allowed only 222 total yards, including 19 on the ground. A sack of Dobbs led to the Jaguars scoring on a 37-yard fumble return late in the game to win 20-16. The moral of the story is that Jacksonville, which finished 9-8 after a five-game winning streak, is being overrated in the betting market. Tennessee, which lost seven straight to finish 7-10, is being underrated. Don’t forget the 2021 season, when the Titans went 12-5 and earned the AFC’s top seed while the Jaguars went 3-14. This division looks like a two-horse race, with Jacksonville the odds-on favorite (-150) at DraftKings. The value is with Tannehill and the Titans.

 

Zachary Cohen

Bryce Young to win Offensive Rookie of the Year (+500)

I find it a little surprising that Bijan Robinson is the favorite to win this award. Robinson is obviously going to be fed the ball a ton with the Atlanta Falcons, but I don’t see them completely going away from Tyler Allgeier. Last year, Allgeier rushed for 1,019 yards and averaged 4.9 yards per carry. Also, these big awards are generally suited for quarterbacks when there are suitable candidates. Well, Young is definitely going to make a push for this, as he has already run away with the starting job in Carolina. And the Panthers are a team that a lot of people are picking to win the NFC South. There’s no way that Carolina will do that without Young coming in and playing well immediately. With a very good head coach calling the shots for him, as well as a decent offensive line up front, I see Young looking the part of a franchise quarterback sooner rather than later. This is a guy that threw for a total of 8,200 yards with 79 touchdowns and only 12 interceptions in two years as Alabama’s starter. And he did so against the best competition in college football. He’s as pro-ready a signal caller as you can ask for, and I think he has an underrated group of weapons to catch his passes.
 

Jacksonville Jaguars to win Super Bowl LVIII (+2500)

The San Francisco 49ers are my pick to win the Super Bowl, and I have them beating the Buffalo Bills in that game. However, a small part of me thinks the Jaguars are ready to make a massive leap in 2023. With that in mind, I’m putting a little something on them to win the Super Bowl. This Jacksonville offense has the potential to be extremely explosive, with Calvin Ridley now catching passes on the outside, and that already raises the ceiling of this group. The question is whether or not the Jaguars can make significant improvements on the defensive side of the ball. For that to happen, Jacksonville will need Travon Walker to improve significantly as a pass rusher. The Jaguars will also need better play from their secondary. But at this price, I think it’s worth a stab. This is a well-coached team with a good quarterback and an easy path to the postseason. So, some small breaks along the way could mean a special season.

 

Mitch Moss

Green Bay Packers to make the playoffs (+190)

Player 1: 70.7% completion (1st in the NFL), 8.2 yards per attempt (4th), 48 TD (1st), 5 INT, 79.8 QBR (1st), 121.5 RTG (1st), 1st in EPA/play and 1st in PASS EPA/play

Player 2: 68.9% (3rd), 7.8 ypa (6th), 37 TD (4th), 4 INT, 74.1 QBR (1st), 111.9 RTG (1st), 1st in EPA/play and 1st in PASS EPA/play

Player 3: 64.6% (20th among QBs with a minimum of 200 dropbacks), 6.8 ypa (24th), 26 TDs (7th), 12 INTs, 39.3 QBR (26th), 91.1 RTG (T15th), 24th EPA/play, 22nd in PASS EPA/play.

The numbers make it easy to see a big-time dropoff from the first two players to the third person on the list. But what if I told you all three players were Aaron Rodgers?

Player 1 was his MVP season in 2020. Player 2 was his MVP season in 2021. Player 3 is who Rodgers was in 2022. He went from having the best numbers in the league in back-to-back 13-win seasons for Green Bay to a QB who was below average in several key categories. 

The Packers were also hosting the final game of the regular season on Sunday night as 4.5-point favorites against the Detroit Lions. With a win, Rodgers and Green Bay were in the playoffs yet again. They lost, and the rest is history. Rodgers is now the Jets QB, and unproven 4th year QB Jordan Love takes over the position. 

In no way am I suggesting Love will come close to his predecessor’s numbers in 2020 or 2021. However, I am suggesting he can be in the ballpark of what happened last year. 

I don’t expect the Vikings to duplicate 2022, and I’m not buying the hype with the Chicago Bears. The NFC is far from loaded. I’ll take the plus money with the Pack. 

Tony Pollard to win Offensive Player of the Year (+5000)

As of this post, Ezekiel Elliott is still without a team. I acknowledge that Dallas could potentially re-sign him before the season starts. If so, that changes things. For now, I’ll move forward as the Cowboys originally did when they released the former star RB on March 15th. 

Elliott only ran for 3.8 yards per attempt last year, and it was clear to everybody who watched that Tony Pollard was the better weapon out of the backfield. 

The yards per attempt were inefficient for Zeke, but his overall touches were still very high—especially in the red zone. The Cowboys fed him the rock 35 times when they were inside their opponents 20 yard line. Elliott scored 12 times! He also had 26 carries inside the 10 yard line, which was tied for 3rd overall in the entire league. 11 TDs were scored on those carries by the former Ohio State star. Inside the 5:  Zeke had 16 carries (3rd most) and scored 9 times (tied for 3rd most).

Who is going to get all of those touches?

Pollard thrived when Elliott missed time. The Cowboys had their bye in week 9, and Elliott missed the two weeks surrounding it. Pollard’s numbers looked like this in the two games:

Week 8 vs. Chicago: 14 carries, 131 yards (9.4 ypa!), 3 TDs

Week 10 vs. Green Bay: 22 carries, 115 yards, 1 TD and 6 targets

Dallas was rumored to be in love with former Texas RB Bijan Robinson. They didn’t draft him. Nor did they draft Jahmyr Gibbs. 

They drafted Deuce Vaughn, who I like, out of Kansas State in the 6th round. But he’s only 5’6" and 176 pounds. Vaughn is with Malik Davis and Ronald Jones on the current depth chart behind Pollard.

There is a lot to like about the new full-time starting running back on America’s Team. Oh yeah, they throw him the ball as well. 55 times in 2022. My bet is that number only goes up. 

Amon-Ra St. Brown to win Offensive Player of the Year (+4000)

The Detroit Lions were the fifth-highest-scoring team in the NFL in 2022. The offense should again be a major strength of the team in 2023, despite some big losses. More on that in a minute. 

Defensively they allowed 25.1 ppg. That number was tied with Indianapolis for the fourth-worst mark in the league. Now, it should improve this year, but by how much? The top half of the league might be a stretch. Shootouts with Lions involved this year won’t be surprising. 

St. Brown was 9th in targets last year with 146. He also missed Week 4 (no other receiver with more targets missed a single game last year) and only had 1 target in Week 7. He was also tied for 9th in red zone targets (21), 6th in receptions (13), and had 6 touchdowns (T4th). QB Jared Goff had a major bounce-back season with the help of offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, and the former number one pick in the draft made it clear that St. Brown was his favorite teammate to target. The Lions passing DVOA ranked fifth last year—up from 28th in 2021.

Now for the players who moved on. D’Andre Swift (70 targets), D.J. Chark (52), and T.J. Hockensen (43) will no longer be stealing targets. In fact, Detroit lost the fourth most targets in the offseason—227 to be exact. Second-year wide receiver Jameson Williams will also miss the first six games of the season due to suspension. 

Defenses will certainly adjust to Amon-Ra’s breakout season from a year ago, but I’m expecting another huge season out of him. Detroit’s win total is 9.5 and juiced to the over, and they’re favored to win the NFC North. 

 

DraftKing Props

Click on DIVISION SPECIALS -> DIVISION STRAIGHT FORECAST

AFC EAST: 1st Jets/2nd Dolphins +950; Dolphins 1st/Jets 2nd +950

NFC NORTH: 1st Lions/2nd Packers +650; 1st Packers/2nd Lions +900

DIVISION EXACT ORDER

AFC WEST: Chiefs/Chargers/Broncos/Raiders +450; Chiefs/Broncos/Chargers/Raiders +650

DIVISION TOTAL WINS

Kansas City Chiefs o4.5 +100

Chiefs record vs. AFC West since Andy Reid took over as coach in 2013:

2013: 2-4

2014: 3-3

2015: 5-1

2016: 6-0

2017: 5-1

2018: 5-1

2019: 6-0

2020: 4-2

2021: 5-1

2022: 6-0

– 42-6 since 2015 (26-4 since Mahomes took over) 

– 7-1 o4.5 division wins since 2015 

– 4-1 o4.5 division wins since Mahomes took over

DIVISION PASSING LEADERS

AFC North: Lamar Jackson +1200

 

Adam Burke

Detroit Lions Highest Scoring Team (+1400)

Moves have been made, and new players have come in, but the Lions still face one of the weakest defensive schedules in the NFL this season. Coming off of a season in which they finished fifth in points per game (26.6), the Lions only play three defenses from the top 10 in EPA/play last season. They’ll face the Saints (10th) in Week 13, the Broncos (9th) in Week 15, and the Cowboys (2nd) in Week 17. All three of those games are indoors, so that should help offensive coordinator Ben Johnson’s unit offset some of the difficulty of the matchup.

The six games within the division feature opponents that finished 16th (Vikings), 27th (Packers), and 32nd (Bears) in EPA/play last season, and Detroit didn’t even take full advantage of that, scoring just 35 points in two games against Green Bay. While some of the teams on the docket did well in free agency or the draft, this will also be Detroit’s second season with Johnson at the helm, and improvements are certainly not out of the question with a hot, up-and-coming coach.

Despite the suspension for Jameson Williams, this is still a robust group of skill players with Amon-Ra St. Brown, a big target in Marvin Jones Jr., and a highly versatile running back in Jahmyr Gibbs. The offensive line is still solid as well.

Lastly, the Lions are likely to need a lot of points to win games because the defense projects to be quite bad again.

Jacksonville Jaguars Most Wins (+1500)

It is not a coincidence that the Jaguars went 6-1 to finish the season and even won a playoff game before losing an evenly-matched game to the Chiefs. Even as a 3-7 team through 10 weeks, Jacksonville was 10th in EPA/play on offense and right around league average defensively. They were better than their record indicated, and we saw a correction in their results after the Week 11 bye.

From Week 12 through the end of the regular season, Jacksonville was 10th in EPA/play on offense and sixth in EPA/play on defense. Trevor Lawrence had a 15/2 TD/INT ratio over his final nine games and cut his INT total by more than half from his rookie season. Doug Pederson is a heck of a head coach, and the Jaguars got to nine wins, despite squandering one of the two games against the Texans and Colts. It is not out of the realm of possibility that the Jags get six wins in their division games alone this season against a Titans team in purgatory and two rebuilding teams with new head coaches.

Based on the early DraftKings lines, the Jaguars have a handful of coin-flip games, with five games in which they are +1. As a team that cut back significantly on turnovers and also has a full offseason to get into the Pederson playbook, a big leap is certainly not out of the question, and the Jags reside in the league’s second-worst division, which is a big help.

 

Dave Tuley

Cincinnati Bengals to win Super Bowl (+1100), AFC (+550)

I first gave out the Bengals as my “too soon” pick to win the 2024 Super Bowl right after the 2023 Super Bowl in February. And they still seem to be the best betting value on the board. The Bengals went toe-to-toe with the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game before losing 23-20 on a last-second field goal after making it to the Super Bowl the year before, so there’s no reason to think they won’t continue to be right in the mix. QB Joe Burrow should lead an explosive offense (No. 7 in the league last season at 25.7 points per game) and vastly underrated defense (No. 5 at 19.7 points per game). We’d feel even better about these wagers if the Bengals could secure home-field advantage, which could be tough as they have to hold off a solid Baltimore Ravens team in the AFC North. However, I feel the Bengals are still the better team, plus they’ve had the number of both the Bills and Chiefs in recent years and are fully capable of running the table.

Minnesota Vikings to win NFC North (+250)

After the Super Bowl, I took a flier on the Vikings to win next year’s Super Bowl at 40-1. I love the trio of QB Kirk Cousins, RB Dalvin Cook and WR Justin Jefferson, along with the supporting cast enough to see them in contention again. They released Cook, and a lot of people are down on their chances for this upcoming season, but I still think it’s an overreaction to drop their Over/Under Season Win Total to 8.5 after this team won 13 last season. Yes, I know how they were lucky to win so many one-score games, but I don’t think that should be held against them this much. The same goes for the NFC North race. DraftKings has the Vikings at +250 to repeat as division champs, with the Lions the favorite at +130 after going 9-8 last season. Now, believe me, I’ve happily cashed on the Lions as underdogs many times in the past two years and am as impressed as anyone with how much they’re improved under coach Dan Campbell and with Jared Goff re-booting his career. But, and this is a big but, it’s hard for a team to take a second big leap after improving so much from year to year. I believe the Vikings still have enough to hold them off to win the NFC North at the generous price of +250.

 

Matt Brown

Seahawks to win NFC West (+195) 

In my humble opinion, this is a head-to-head bet between the Seahawks and the 49ers. I fully expect the Cardinals to be one of the worst teams in the NFL, if not the worst. And the Rams are completely stuck in neutral as their cap situation and lack of draft picks didn’t allow for any significant upgrades. Instead, they saw some major departures. And the 49ers don’t know who is going to be their quarterback for the majority of the games this season, making them a real regression candidate. 

Enter the Seahawks, a team PFF recently ranked as the 11th-best roster in the NFL entering the 2023 season. They had a fantastic draft and picked up some key pieces in free agency. One of those key draft picks is WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba. They added arguably the best wideout in the draft to an already good receiver group, giving Geno Smith (PFF’s 9th-graded QB in 2022) a dangerous threat at every level. The offensive line will need to play a little better, and the run defense could be a problem at times, but the pass rush and pass defense were upgraded and should be a strength this year. 

With the state of the bottom two teams in the division and my predicted ‘step back’ for the 49ers, the number on the Seahawks seems off and worth a bet down to around +175. 

Bryce Young Over 3500.5 Passing Yards

I try to avoid betting the Over on season statistical totals, especially for rookies, but this one is too juicy to pass up. 

We’ve cleared the first hurdle, which is Young getting named the starter in early June. Secondly, we get the reports that he has had real chemistry with free agent pickup Adam Thielen, who could act as a security blanket underneath, providing an outlet for high-percentage throws. Moreover, word is that Terrace Marshall has really stepped up (better late than never, eh?) and DJ Chark looks to be fully recovered from his injuries. And we can’t forget the Panthers added Hayden Hurst, a big, steady target and favorite of Joe Burrow’s the last couple of seasons. 

The offensive line should provide enough protection to allow the rookie to take advantage of his under-the-radar good stable of receivers. 

If we do the math, provided Young can give us 15 games, we need an average of 233 yards passing per game to get the Over. In today’s passing NFL, only four starters that started 15 games last season didn’t average at least 233 passing yards per game. If he suits up for 16, that number drops to 219 per game. If he’s lucky enough to avoid the injury bug and can go all 17 games, we need a mere 206 passing yards average to get us home. Only Daniel Jones and Justin Fields failed to reach that passing yard average last year amongst regular starters. 

 

Pauly Howard

Most Receiving Yards Garrett Wilson (30-1 DraftKings)

Wilson will be the top target for Rodgers, and he will put up big numbers. I cannot stress enough the gap between Zach Wilson and Aaron Rodgers in quarterback play and the ability to stretch the field. Going Over TD Receptions is also in play this season. Garrett Wilson put up good stats with Zach Wilson and Mike White, and Rodgers enters this year with a chip on his shoulder after Green Bay wanted him to leave.

 

Wes Reynolds

Atlanta Falcons +240 to Win NFC South

In 2022, the Falcons fielded an above-average offense (13th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA) and an elite special teams unit (fifth) but struggled mightily on defense (30th). 

Atlanta should be improved on that side of the ball. They had money to spend to improve it after finally getting out of the Matt Ryan and Julio Jones contracts that put them in salary cap hell. They add Jessie Bates III (Cincinnati) at safety and Calais Campbell (Baltimore) on the defensive line. Adding defensive tackle David Onyemata and linebacker Kaden Elliss from the Saints gives the Falcons two more quality front-seven defenders — along with the added benefit of directly weakening the Saints. The Falcons weakened the Saints the most by grabbing Ryan Nielsen for the defensive coordinator position. Although he is a first-time defensive play caller, Nielsen appears to be an upgrade over 73-year-old Dean Pees. 

Offensively, Atlanta should be one of the league’s best at running the ball again behind one of the league’s best offensive lines, and they add Bijan Robinson to the backfield. The acquisition of Jonnu Smith from Tennessee, where he had his best years with Arthur Smith, allows the Falcons to move 2021 first-rounder Kyle Pitts around more and to be able to get him the ball more frequently. 

Also, due to tiebreakers, Atlanta plays the last place schedule in the NFC South. 

This is also a play against New Orleans. Dennis Allen has never had a winning season as a head coach, and the 7-10 mark last year was the best of his career. Derek Carr is also now working with the fifth offensive coordinator of his career. Michael Thomas took less money to come back, but is he the same player he was three years ago? Alvin Kamara may also still have a suspension to serve for an incident in Las Vegas during the 2022 Pro Bowl weekend. 

 

Femi Abebefe

Micah Parsons to win Defensive Player of the Year (+700)

It’s not sexy or fun to bet chalk in awards markets, but if there ever was a market to focus on the top of the odds board, it’s NFL Defensive Player of the Year. This season, the guy next in line to be crowned as the league’s top defender is none other than Dallas Cowboys pass rusher Micah Parsons. Not only does Parsons get a lot of attention playing for America’s Team, but his game does the talking as well. Entering year three of his career, Parsons has already finished second on the ballot for this award in each of his first two seasons. The two-time first-team All-Pro edge rusher checks every box for a potential DPOY winner.

Parsons’ production has been outstanding in his first two seasons—26.5 career sacks and 33 tackles for loss. In addition to being a dynamic pass rusher, he can also play off-ball linebacker which makes him arguably the most feared defensive weapon in football. The crazy thing is that when you listen to Parsons talk, it sounds like, in his mind, he’s just scratching the surface of his full potential. In college, he was primarily used as an off-ball linebacker and was originally drafted to play that position for the Cowboys. It was only out of necessity due to other injuries that they tried him out as a pass rusher. With another year of pass-rushing experience under his belt, Parsons is now better suited to handle a full season of playing on the line of scrimmage, which is probably why he didn’t win the award in 2022.

On top of that, Dallas is set up pretty well to have one of the best defenses in the league, with defensive coordinator Dan Quinn back at the helm for a third season. Quinn has mentioned this offseason how he’s excited to be back after interviewing on the head coaching circuit and believes his defense has the opportunity to “level up” in 2023. If the Dallas defense is as good as Quinn thinks it will be, my guess is that voters will reward Parsons with DPOY as the face of one of the game’s top units.

Matt LaFleur to win Coach of the Year (+2000)

If there’s one thing we’ve learned over the past decade, the NFL Coach of the Year award doesn’t really go to the best coach in the league. Instead, the voting bloc gives it to the coach whose team exceeded the median expectations. Does it make sense to hand out the award that way? Probably not, but that’s what the voters do, so we should be aware of it.

I say all that to say I’m not the biggest fan of Green Bay Packers head coach Matt LaFleur, but I do like him to win this award because the expectations in Green Bay haven’t been this low in quite some time. The last time the Packers had a win total of 7.5 was 2007, which ironically saw the Pack go 13-3 that year.

Speaking of 13 wins, LaFleur won that many games in each of his first three seasons as Packers head coach. However, he was never really considered for Coach of the Year because all the credit went to four-time league MVP quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Unless you’ve been living under a rock for the past six months, you’d know that the Packers traded Rodgers to the New York Jets, ushering in a new era at Lambeau Field.

With Rodgers in New York, the Packers are now the longest shot to win the NFC North. Is that right? Who’s to say. LaFleur and the Packers’ hopes are now tied to fourth-year quarterback Jordan Love who is taking over as the starter for the first time in his career. If Love is bad, this bet has zero chance. However, if Love is good, the Packers become incredibly live to win the division.

More importantly, in this case, because Love isn’t an established star (like Rodgers), LaFleur is set up really well to get credit for any Packers’ success this season. In what is a gettable division, I think LaFleur, Love and the Packers can outperform expectations due to a manageable schedule. There are a number of interesting Coach of the Year candidates this season (Arthur Smith, Frank Reich, Matt Eberflus, Ron Rivera, etc.). However, Green Bay is one of the most glamorous franchises in the league and will get a majority of the attention if they can get to double-digit wins.

Bryce Young to win Offensive Rookie of the Year (+500)

I find it very interesting that the first overall draft pick, who played quarterback at the most high-profile college football program and has a Heisman Trophy, is somehow not the favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. Look, Falcons running back Bijan Robinson is legit. This time a year ago, I bet him to win said Heisman Trophy, which ultimately went to next year’s likely OROY favorite Caleb Williams.

With that said, let’s get to the guy I like this year—Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young. Leading up to the draft, every front office executive, scout and amateur draftnik spoke highly about Young and his abilities as a top-notch signal caller. The only knock on Young is that he’s a physical outlier for the position, but that doesn’t really concern me in Year One.

On the podcast The GM Shuffle with Michael Lombardi, the former NFL front office executive explained to me the brilliance of Young lies within his innate instincts to maneuver in the pocket when plays break down. Lombardi described Young as a point guard on a basketball court, which makes sense since Young’s first love was playing hoops. In addition to having great instincts, Young has a stronger arm than he’s given credit for having and has proven to be durable (missed just one game in college) playing in the vaunted Southeastern Conference. Mentally, it sounds like he’s pretty advanced for being a young quarterback and has already drawn rave reviews from his new teammates in Carolina.

Alright, I’ll stop the Young love fest and get to how he makes the Panthers better, which is ultimately why I believe he wins the award. Most of the time, when a quarterback is selected first overall, they’re joining a team that was atrocious a season ago. That’s not the case with Young and the Panthers. Carolina traded up from the back of the top 10 to get their QB of the future. This roster is much better than the market thinks despite having to give up wide receiver D.J. Moore to acquire Young.

With a revamped coaching staff led by Frank Reich, I think the Panthers can challenge for a division title in the NFC South. I’ll even go a step further. By the end of the season, the consensus opinion is that the Panthers have the best head coach and quarterback in the division. I like Carolina to win the NFC South, but instead of betting that, I’m going to play Young OROY at the bigger price because of the correlation between the two. I don’t see a scenario where the Panthers win the division and Young plays poorly. Do I think Robinson will be a stud in Atlanta? Without question. However, in this instance, the tie goes to the quarterback on the better team and at the better price in the market.

 

 

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