Best bets for 2023 NFL season win totals

Best bets for 2023 NFL win totals

Matt Youmans

New England Patriots: Over 7.5 (+105)

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It’s tough to criticize coach Bill Belichick, but he had to be the only person on the planet who thought it was a good idea to put Matt Patricia, the team’s former defensive coordinator, in charge of the offense last year. The foolish experiment blew up in Belichick’s face. The Patriots’ offense produced dismal rankings in most areas and declined from 48 touchdowns in 2021 (with Josh McDaniels as offensive coordinator) to 31 touchdowns in 2022. Belichick lured Bill O’Brien back to New England as OC, a major improvement. O’Brien will rebuild quarterback Mac Jones, who has new targets to work with in JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mike Gesicki. The Patriots’ defense ranked sixth in rushing (105.5 ypg) and 11th in scoring (20.4 ppg). Despite most things going wrong last season, New England finished 8-9. With the offense back on track, Belichick will bounce back to at least 9-8 — but eight wins would be enough. Belichick has won at least eight games in 21 of his past 22 seasons.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Under 10 (+105)

On the surface, the Jaguars are the easy pick to be kings of the AFC South landfill, with the Texans and Colts at the bottom of the trash pile. Jacksonville improved from 3-14 in 2021 to 9-8 last year, Doug Pederson’s first as coach. It seems like a natural progression for Trevor Lawrence to continue to mature as a winning quarterback under Pederson’s guidance. However, the Jaguars needed to finish the season with a five-game winning streak to reach 9-8, with four of the wins coming against the Titans (twice), Texans and Jets — teams with weak quarterbacks. In other words, it was not a legit nine-win team, and now the schedule is more challenging. Jacksonville could be facing major problems with its weaker offensive line, and a defense that allowed 6,006 total yards (24th in the league) does not appear improved. Lawrence will probably play well, but if you dig below the surface, this team is a regression candidate. I recommend betting Under 10 (+105) at the Westgate SuperBook instead of the DraftKings total of 9.5.

Tennessee Titans: Over 7.5 (+110)

Zachary Cohen

Chicago Bears: Over 7.5 (-130)

The Bears made a huge move in dealing the first pick to the Carolina Panthers. In doing so, Chicago added D.J. Moore to a group of pass catchers that suddenly looks pretty good. With Moore, Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet and Chase Claypool, the Bears now have proven NFL talent surrounding Justin Fields. Fields should make a nice leap in his third season in the pros, especially considering offensive coordinator Luke Getsy really got a feel for how to use him last year. Fields should also benefit from an offensive line that improved by adding Nate Davis in free agency and Darnell Wright through the draft. Chicago also brought in a ton of talent on the defensive side of the ball. The team added one of the top free agents on the market in linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, and T.J. Edwards should also be a great addition to the linebacking corps. Overall, this is going to be a much better football team in 2023 than it was in 2022, and the team plays an extremely reasonable schedule. That should make eight wins very attainable. 

Arizona Cardinals: Under 4.5 (+100)

It’s hard to see a path toward the Cardinals winning five games this season. DraftKings Sportsbook has Arizona as an underdog in every game it will play this year, and that seems right to me. The Cardinals are facing serious uncertainty on the offensive side of the ball, as Kyler Murray is recovering from a torn ACL and the team released DeAndre Hopkins at the start of the summer. It’s just hard to see how this team will consistently put up points, and the defense isn’t talented enough to keep Arizona in games — even with the Cardinals having brought in former Philadelphia Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon as the franchise’s new head coach. This feels like it will be a lost season for Arizona, which is probably looking at the top draft pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. 

New York Jets: Over 9.5 (-130)

The Jets were a quarterback away from being a legitimate player in the AFC last year, and they now go from the worst quarterback play in football to a Hall of Famer in Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers might not be the quarterback he used to be, but he still threw for 3,695 yards with 26 touchdowns and only 12 interceptions last year. And he’ll have a much better team around him in New York, where Garrett Wilson is on the verge of being a superstar. The Jets also brought in Allen Lazard, one of Rodgers’ favorite weapons from Green Bay. And the team will be running an offense that Rodgers loves, as his former offensive coordinator with the Packers, Nathaniel Hackett, is now the offensive coordinator for the Jets. There really isn’t much stopping this team from winning 10 or 11 games. Last year, New York was fifth in the league in defensive DVOA, and that unit should border on elite again in 2023. This team should play a lot of close games this season, but the Jets have a guy under center that knows how to win those games.  

Steve Makinen

Denver Broncos: Over 8.5 wins

I had fairly high hopes for the Broncos a year ago upon the arrival of QB Russell Wilson, as I felt he was the only thing the team was missing in terms of being a division title/playoff contender. Obviously, things didn’t go as planned for Denver in his first season with the franchise, as the offense started very slowly and didn’t really show signs of breaking out until December. For me, that is a key, as they scored 24 points or more in four of their last five games after failing to do so in any of the first 12. In other words, the Wilson-Broncos marriage started to work. Now, they move on with a major upgrade at head coach by bringing on Sean Payton. I would expect Wilson and Payton to do fairly well together, seeing as how Payton enjoyed incredible success with diminutive quarterback Drew Brees in New Orleans. Now, in terms of trends I like for this team, consider that since ’98, 34 teams have lost 8+ games in “close loss” format, that being one possession or less (8 pts). Their combined average improvement the next season was a hefty 3.56 wins per season with 30 of them improving. Denver fits this fill after a 5-12 season that could have easily been much better.

New York Jets: Over 9.5 wins

It’s no secret that I put a lot of stock into the quarterback position in the NFL. Most bettors do. The amount of bad play and inconsistency the Jets have endured in recent years at the NFL’s most important position has been absurd. Last season may have been rock bottom for that storyline as far as the franchise was concerned, as most experts believed that HC Robert Saleh’s team had enough everywhere else to be a contender. How much difference will adding one of the league’s best-ever players at the position, albeit an aging one, make this season? In my opinion, night and day. Aaron Rodgers may not have been at his best in 2022, but there were other circumstances involved, and he is still just two years removed from his most recent MVP season. In New York, Rodgers will be backed by elite young skill position talent and a defense that allowed over 20 points just twice in its last 14 games to close last season. Nearly 70% of teams that allow fewer than 23 PPG and won seven or fewer games in a season have improved by over 3.5 wins per season. I also conducted a study earlier that showed that veteran QBs that were winners at their last stop and now moving on to new teams generally improve their new teams’ winning percentage by about 23% in their first year. Rodgers can and will be the difference in improving on a 7-10 record.  I expect this Jets team to be a playoff contender, at the least.

New Orleans Saints: Over 9.5 wins

I sometimes feel that the oddsmakers in Vegas pave the road for bettors on some of these season win total wagers. After a rough 7-10 season a year ago, the experts have pegged the Saints for 9.5 this year? To me, the reasons are many. For one, the acquisition of QB Derek Carr from Las Vegas immediately patches a hole this franchise has been suffering from since Drew Brees retired. He can put up big numbers with a very talented receiving corps and consequently, win games. Second, the Saints’ defense was very good last year, particularly in the last six games, when it allowed just 13 PPG. Third, and perhaps most importantly, the NFC South is an absolute mess right now, with the Bucs certain to drop after losing QB Tom Brady and several other key veterans, the Falcons not ready to be a playoff contender just yet, and the Panthers looking like a better down-the-road option with new Head Coach Frank Reich and rookie QB Bryce Young. To me, there is only one roster with the talent and pedigree to win the division, New Orleans. If you need one more piece of evidence to push you over the edge, consider this season changeover system: All 10 teams since 2000 that had won fewer games than the prior season in three straight seasons have improved their won-lost record by an average of 4.8 wins per season! New Orleans qualifies (13-12-9-7).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Under 6.5 wins

While Tom Brady was not at his absolute best last season, he still gave the Bucs a reasonable shot to win in any given game. It’s a stretch to say the same thing can be said with Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask battling it out to be Brady’s replacement in ’23. As tough as it was to watch Tampa Bay’s offense struggle to score touchdowns consistently last season, Brady still put up big numbers and was very good between the 20s. I don’t see either of this year’s options improving the red zone efficiency. If this year does turn out to be as tough as oddsmakers are projecting for the Bucs, it doesn’t take away anything from what was a huge experimental success in bringing over the league’s all-time best quarterback. The franchise made the playoffs all three years and won a Super Bowl. However, it appears to be time to pay the piper, and the rest of the NFC South Division will be ecstatic to get a chance to avenge the past three years of Tampa’s reign. Teams that win a lot of close games in one year tend to drop off the next by around three wins per season. Tampa Bay won six games by eight points or fewer. That average drop doesn’t include losing the GOAT. The Bucs were 8-9 last year. Even a minimal two-game decline would send this win total UNDER.

Dave Tuley

Minnesota Vikings: Over 8.5 wins (-125)

In the “futures” section, I recommended taking the Vikings at +250 to win the NFC North. I’m not sure the Lions can take that next leap now that they’ll be favorites a lot more than they’re used to and won’t be sneaking up on anybody. So, if I like the Vikings to defend their divisional title, I have to like the Over 8.5 (-125) Season Win Total as well as it’s certainly going to take at least nine wins to win the NFC North. I don’t expect the Vikings to go 13-4 like last year. I know a lot of people are jumping off their bandwagon because they were lucky to win so many one-score games last year. Still, I certainly don’t see them losing five more games and finishing below .500. Besides, as much as people are down on the Vikings they’re still favored in 11 of their 17 games this season on the advance lines at several books. Now, I certainly know that just because a team is favored doesn’t mean it’s an automatic “win” when you’re going through the schedule, but they should win at least seven of those. Of the other six games in which they’re underdogs, four of those are under a field goal so there’s no reason they can’t split those to get to nine wins if we’re being conservative, though we’re going to call it 10 wins. I’m not confident enough to recommend the Over 10.5 +250 at DraftKings, but I’ll be shopping around for Over 9 and Over 9.5 at plus-money.

Matt Brown

Arizona Cardinals: Under 4.5 wins (+100) 

The worst team in the league has the lowest win total headed into the 2023 season for good reason. Kyler Murray is injured. JJ Watt retired. DeAndre Hopkins was released. And while players will always play hard, there is a real incentive for this team to lose as many games as possible at the what-is-best-for-the-organization level. 

To make matters worse, they have one of the 10-12 hardest schedules entering the season as well. This is evidenced by the fact that they are preseason underdogs in every game listed at DraftKings Sportsbook. And to pile on further, of those games, they’re greater than a field goal underdog in all but three games. 

I also think there is a very real possibility that if Murray’s rehab doesn’t go 100% as expected, he could just be shut down for the year to protect not only him — but perhaps more importantly that coveted #1 overall pick. If that is the case, good luck winning five games with some combination of Colt McCoy, Jeff Driskel, Clayton Tune, and David Blough. I’m not completely against playing an alternate under on a team that might struggle to win even two games. 

Pauly Howard

Chicago Bears: Under 7.5 wins

The worst team in the league last year is going to go all the way up to eight wins? I cannot see that. We have heard the reports from practice that Fields looks like a different quarterback. You still have to question his weapons and passing accuracy. The division still features a playoff team from last year and everyone’s darling in Detroit. I feel the Packers are better than the Bears on paper with Jordan Love getting no respect.

Mitch Moss

About five years ago, VSiN contributor Drew Dinsick was the first person I heard explaining why betting alternate numbers is a wise approach to the regular season win total market. Everybody assumes "Vegas knows what they’re doing," and that the numbers are so tight, teams must land on or within one game of their win total. That assumption is far from the truth.

I’ll use the Kansas City Chiefs as an example. KC’s "normal" win total is set at 11.5 at DraftKings. The Over is currently juiced at -140, and the Under is sitting at +120. Will the Chiefs win close to their win total of 11 or 12? Perhaps. History suggests betting a different number from 11.5 could be your best bet. 

Keep in mind, you will often find these alternate win totals offering a very nice plus price. Last year, KC’s win total was 10.5. Over the alternate total of 11.5 was +165. Winner. On the flip side, Denver won five games. Under 8.5 wins paid +200. 

In 2019, sixteen NFL teams either went over or under their alternate win total. Exactly half the league cashed at plus money. 

Eight teams pushed their alt high or low total. So that means 24 teams (75% of the league) did not land on their win total nor were they within one game of it. 

In 2020, 25 teams either went over or under their alternate win total. 78%! The prices ranged from +160 (Patriots u8 wins—they won seven) to +250 (Seahawks o10.5 wins—they won 12).

23 teams accomplished this in 2021, and my unofficial count is 22 teams in 2022. 

The trick is finding the teams that will exceed expectations or do the exact opposite. I have no illusions of hitting them all, but if I nail a few, I’ll be in business. 

Not all numbers are out as of this printing, but here are some teams I’m looking to play in 2023:

Baltimore Ravens alt over

Chicago Bears alt under

Green Bay Packers alt over

Los Angeles Rams alt under

Las Vegas Raiders alt under

Tampa Bay Buccaneers alt under

San Francisco 49ers alt under